Core point:
Livestock and poultry breeding: According to Souzhu.com, on June 21, the average price of live pigs sold nationwide was 18.11 yuan/kg, down 2.7% month on month and up 27.5% year on year. Due to the high temperature in the north, the plum rain season in the south and other factors, the consumption demand decreased after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the high price of pigs fell back this week. By the end of the first quarter, the statistics bureau announced that the number of breeding sows on hand was about 39.92 million, down 7.3% year on year; The number of live pigs on hand nationwide was 408.5 million, down 5.2% year on year and 5.9% quarter on quarter. At present, the number of live pigs on hand is at the lowest level in 21 years. The effect of capacity reduction in the early stage is gradually emerging. With the subsequent improvement of supply and seasonal warming of demand, the pig price in the third quarter is expected to start rising again. Benefiting from the decline of raw material prices and the improvement of epidemic prevention efficiency in the early stage, the marketing cost entered the fast decline channel. During the upward phase of this round, the industry is expected to benefit from the expansion of the "scissors gap" between rising pig prices and falling costs, and the overall profitability is expected to exceed market expectations. At present, the valuation of the sector is still at a relatively low level. Large breeding enterprises mainly recommend Wenshi Shares and Muyuan Shares and focus on New Hope. Small and medium-sized breeding enterprises focus on Tangrenshen, Tiankang Biology, Huatong Shares and Sichuan Chongqing pig leading enterprises. In terms of white feather chickens, the price of Yantai commercial chicken fry this week was about 2.3 yuan/feather, down 1.3% month on month, maintaining a low bottoming state. Currently, the stock of breeding chickens is in the process of adjustment, and the industry may face recovery in the future. Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, etc. will benefit. In terms of yellow feather chickens, the current stock of breeding chickens continues to be at a relatively low level, and the cost advantage of high-quality enterprises is obvious, so we continue to recommend Lihua Shares.
Feed and animal protection: the spot price of corn was stable this week, the spot price of soybean meal fell slightly month on month, and the feed price remained stable month on month. Since May, the enthusiasm for the second round of breeding and fence pressing in the north has risen, driving the demand for pig feed to the bottom and recovering. The profitability of egg poultry and yellow chicken breeding improved, and the demand for poultry feed increased steadily. The price of aquatic products fluctuated this week. With the end of the peak season for seedling investment and the relative weakness of consumption, the price of ordinary water fish fluctuated and fell this week; The price of specialty fish benefited from the low stock volume and continued to improve. Among them, the price of California perch rose to a 21 year high and the price of raw fish returned to the cost line. The overall amount of seedlings invested in this spring continued to decline. It is expected that the widening gap between supply and demand will support the high boom of general water fish prices throughout the year. The price of special fish is expected to maintain the upward trend. The price of prawn has bottomed out and picked up. It is expected that the demand for aquatic materials will continue to recover. The competitive advantage of leading enterprises with procurement and formula R&D strength will be further highlighted under the trend of accelerated reshuffle in the domestic feed industry. They are optimistic that the share of Haida Group will continue to increase, and the overseas market will speed up its layout to open up the company's performance growth space. In terms of animal health insurance, the recovery of breeding profits is expected to drive the boom of animal health insurance industry to bottom out. At present, the valuation of the sector is at a historical low. It is suggested to focus on Biotech, China Animal Husbandry, Placo, etc.
Planting industry: According to the latest prediction of NOAA in June, the probability of La Nina phenomenon in July September is 65%. There is a risk of yield reduction for corn, soybeans and other varieties. Pay attention to the driving force of weather speculation on agricultural product market. It is suggested to pay attention to Longping High tech, Denghai Seed Industry, Dabeinong, etc. The current domestic price of white sugar fell 0.9% month on month this week. In June, the Ministry of Agriculture estimated that the national sugar output in 24/25 would be 11 million tons, an increase of 10.4% year on year. Domestic sugar supply is loose, and short-term fluctuations in sugar prices are expected to be weak.
Risk warning: price fluctuation risk of agricultural products, epidemic risk and policy risk.
