Important coastal ports with obvious population growth. Ningbo is an important city in the Shanghai metropolitan area and the economic center of the southern wing of the Yangtze River Delta. In 2023, Ningbo's GDP will reach 1645.28 billion yuan, ranking the twelfth nationwide, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.5%. The tertiary industry has a high contribution, accounting for 51.8%. In 2023, Ningbo will have a permanent population of 9.697 million, with an urbanization rate of 79.9%. In 2023, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Ningbo will be 80144 yuan, and that of rural residents will be 48350 yuan.
Characteristics of the real estate market: the investment growth rate is stable, and the sales area continues to decline. The compound growth rate of real estate development investment in Ningbo reached 7.04% in 2017-2023, with fluctuations maintained within ± 5%, which was relatively stable compared with other cities. In 2023, the real estate sales area will be 9.6433 million square meters, down 14.6% year on year.
New housing market:. At the beginning of 2024, "Xiaoyangchun" failed to make an appointment, but recently the supply of new houses and the transaction area showed a trend of recovery. In 2023, the supply area of commercial residential buildings in Ningbo will be 4.5227 million square meters, down 22.8% year on year; The transaction area was 5.6422 million square meters, down 14.56% year on year, and the average transaction price was 23030 yuan per square meter, up 7.63% year on year.
At the beginning of 2024, Ningbo's commercial residential supply area was 1084400 square meters, down 33.1% year on year; The transaction area was 1.1968 million square meters, down 50.9% year on year; The transaction price was 22106 yuan/level, down 5.7% year on year. At the end of 2023, the inventory area will be 8.0409 million square meters, and the sales supply ratio will reach 4.41 in February, and the de stocking cycle will be 23.71 months in February of 24 years, reaching the peak. From a regional perspective, Yinzhou District accounted for 25.41% of the total sales area of the whole year, and the price rebounded relative to 2022. 2) In 2023, Ningbo's favorable policies on the property market will be further strengthened. The purchase restriction will be canceled, the sales restriction policy will be adjusted, the first set of identification, loan policy, provident fund loan policy will be optimized, and the down payment proportion of provident fund loan will be adjusted. The down payment for new houses will be at least 20%, and the down payment for second-hand houses will be at least 30%.
Second hand housing market: the turnover decreased slightly and the price remained stable. In 2023, there will be 5027 second-hand housing transactions in Ningbo on a monthly basis, a year-on-year decrease of 6.34%. The average transaction price will be 25399 yuan/level, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%. At the beginning of 2024, there will be 4285 second-hand housing transactions on a monthly basis, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%. The price fluctuation of second-hand houses will remain within ± 5% in 2023.
Land market: It will operate at a low level in 2023, and real estate enterprises will have low land acquisition enthusiasm. 1) Local auction rules: the premium rate of 15% remains unchanged, offline lottery is adopted for the first time, and the qualification requirements for the application of real estate enterprise development are increased to ensure the fairness and justice of the market. 2) Land auction: The land is evenly distributed in all regions, with 25% of the land involved in housing, showing a trend of decreasing quantity and increasing price. In 2023, the supply and sales of residential land in Ningbo will continue to decline, and the land price will rise, and the transactions in each region will be relatively average. Throughout the year, 390 auctions of various types of land were completed in Ningbo, with a construction area of 28.6107 million square meters, a land transfer fee of 77.874 billion yuan, and an average price of 2905 yuan per square meter. In terms of regional distribution, Cixi City accounted for 24.36% of the total number of transactions, the highest among all regions.
Investment suggestion: It is suggested to focus on Poly Development, China Resources Land, a high-quality real estate enterprise with strong operational capacity and active replenishment, which is deeply rooted in Ningbo.
Risk tips: policy change risk, housing price decline risk, market fluctuation risk.
