Nonferrous metal circumference observation

Weekly color index performance

    Last week (20240610-20240616), the rise and fall of the nonferrous metal sector was - 2.4%, ranking 27th among CITIC's 30 industry indexes in terms of rise and fall, showing poor performance. In terms of sectors, 0.4% of rare earth and magnetic materials showed a good performance in the rise and fall last week; Gold with poor performance - 5.3%. From the perspective of company performance, last week's increase and decrease ranged from large to small, with Yinbang shares 13.4%, Boqian New Material 5.0%, Yue'an New Material 4.2%, Yunlu shares 4.2%, and Platinum Science New Material 4.1% leading the list; The latter are Zhongrun Resources - 18.7%, Yintai Gold - 9.5%, Jingui Silver - 8.8%, Shengda Resources - 8.1% and Xiaocheng Technology - 7.8%.

    Weekly observation of nonferrous industry

    Precious metals are mainly gold and silver. According to the latest data (2024/06/10-2024/06/18), the SHFE gold range is - 2.2%, and the SHFE silver range is - 5.7%.

    The prices of most industrial metals fell. Specifically, the range of rise and fall of six major industrial metal varieties (2024/06/10-2024/06/18) is as follows: (calculated based on the closing price of futures - active contracts): cathode copper is - 3.9%, aluminum is - 3.9%, lead is 0.1%, zinc is - 3.1%, tin is 0.3%, and nickel is - 5.2%.

    The price range of rare metals (2024/06/11-2024/06/18) is as follows: among energy metals (lithium cobalt nickel), the price range of lithium carbonate (99.5% electricity, domestic) is - 3.3%, and that of Chinese cobalt (1 #) is - 1.4%; The price of wolframite concentrate 65% domestically increased by - 2.0%; The price of antimony 1 # in the Yangtze nonferrous metal market rose or fell by 0.0%; Among the rare earths, the price of rare earth carbonate (REO42.0-45.0%) increased or decreased by 1.3%, and the price of battery grade mixed rare earth metal increased or decreased by 1.5%.

    Industry trends

    1. Wells Fargo Bank predicts that gold may continue to consolidate throughout the summer; 2. Bank of America:

    China's aluminum production growth is close to the limit, and the future output growth will tend to slow down; 3. Luntong's inventory increased by nearly 20000 tons yesterday, hitting the highest level in nearly five months; 4. Ouyangzi, chief technology officer of Jing'ao Technology: If photovoltaic is an industry without hope, there will be no such fierce competition.

    1. Investment advice

    Short term outlook follow-up: precious metal gold, the US economic data performed well in the early stage, the Federal Reserve maintained the level of 5.25% to 5.50% of the federal benchmark interest rate, the number of interest rate cuts shown in the dot matrix decreased from three times to one time, gold prices fell, but the latest US retail sales in May rose 0.1% month on month, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%, reflecting consumer spending weakness, Strengthen investors' expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. Considering the special asset attribute of gold, its role in combating inflation and hedging risks, and the low correlation between the allocation of large categories of assets and other asset categories, it is expected that the gold price will maintain a short-term volatility pattern.

    The fundamentals of various industrial metal varieties have not changed much, and the prices of some varieties have declined significantly. The inventory is at a relatively high level in recent three years. It is expected that the subsequent performance verification stage of related companies will still prompt attention to transaction risks.

    Among rare metals, the resource particularity and relatively small number of small metals determine that their prices are relatively elastic. Lithium, cobalt and rare earth are still lack of catalyst for fundamentals. The price of antimony was flat last week after a sustained and rapid rise. The follow-up sustainability deserves attention.

    2. Risk warning

    1. Macroeconomic changes; 2. International geopolitical changes; 3. Downstream demand is less than expected