Periodic analysis: the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI fell to 3.3% in May, and the month on month ratio fell to 0.01% from 0.3% in April, lower than the 0.1% consensus expected by Bloomberg; The core CPI fell to 3.4% year on year, and the month on month growth rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 0.16%, which was also significantly lower than the 0.3% expected by the market.
The continuous cooling of CPI from April to May shows that the process of "disinflation" in the United States is still continuing, and has marginally boosted the market's confidence in the interest rate cut within the year. At present, the market's expectation of the first interest rate cut shown by FedWatch has warmed to September, with a probability of about 61.1%. Recently, China has gradually entered the slack season of metal demand, which has curbed downstream demand after the previous price hike, and the processing operating rate of copper, aluminum and other varieties has declined month on month. However, the domestic policy tone is still warm, and demand expectations are still supported. The proportion or increase of the basic pricing of each variety. In addition, it is currently in the window period of interest rate reduction, and the expectation of interest rate reduction may aggravate the price disturbance.
Electrolytic aluminum: the demand margin weakens in the off-season, and the ore end still has the power to support prices. ① Price: LME/SHFE aluminum this week is -2.35%/-3.09% to 2517.5/20565 (US) yuan/ton respectively. ② Supply end: the rainy season in Guinea may affect the shipment, and the mine end is still tight. Recently, the output of domestic bauxite has increased month on month, but the growth rate is limited. The tightness of the ore end has not been significantly alleviated. The spot alumina is still at a high level. Pay attention to the impact of the subsequent rainy season in Guinea on the shipment of bauxite. The resumption of production of Yunnan Aluminum Plant at the smelting end is nearly over, and some production capacity in Inner Mongolia has been put into production. This week, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 43.166 million tons/year, an increase of 80000 tons compared with the previous week. ③ Demand and inventory: the demand margin weakens in the off-season, and the aluminum ingot stock accumulates slightly.
As of June 14, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises had dropped by 0.4 pct month on month to 63.6%, of which the operating rate of aluminum profile/aluminum cable was - 2.5/+0.6 pct to 54.0%/66.6% respectively, and the remaining links were basically flat. The stock of aluminum ingots and bars in SMM society is 782 (+0.3) and 1628 (- 0.36) thousand tons. ④ Profit end: the aluminum price fell, and the profit per ton of aluminum dropped to about 1741 yuan.
Copper: high price stimulates supply, aluminum accelerates instead of copper, and suppresses long-term demand. ① Price: LME/SHFE copper this week - 0.22%/-2.43% to 9741.5/79550 (US) yuan/ton respectively. ② Supply:
In May, the domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.0086 million tons,+2.39% month on month. This week, the TC of copper concentrate remained at 2.2 dollars/ton. Recently, many mining enterprises such as Freeport, Southern Copper and Chile National Copper announced to increase production, and copper supply may be eased in the second half of the year. ③ Demand and inventory: Affected by the high copper price, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 64.74%, down 1.97 percentage points month on month. As of June 14, the global dominant inventory had totaled 678800 tons, down 13300 tons from the previous week. ④ Smelting profit:
According to SMM, the spot smelting loss of domestic copper concentrate in May was 2472 yuan/ton, and the long-term smelting profit was 1199 yuan/ton.
Maintain the industry overweight rating, and continue to suggest paying attention to the leading and growth targets of copper and aluminum industry. Recommended targets: Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum Industry, benefiting from: Western Mining, Tianshan Aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo Aluminum, Mingtai Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, Chinalco, etc.
Risk warning: downstream demand is weaker than expected, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates and shrunk the statement more than expected, the domestic economic recovery is less than expected, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles is less than expected.
