Key investment points
Event: On June 14, the Central Bank released financial data for May 2024. In May, M2 was 7.0% year on year, with a previous value of 7.2%; M1 was - 4.2% year on year, with a previous value of - 1.4%. RMB loans increased by 950 billion yuan, 410 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The new social finance increased by 2.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 513.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.4%, the previous value was 8.3%.
Core view: The marginal acceleration of government bond issuance supported the recovery of social finance growth in May, while the impact of "water squeeze" on deposits and loans is still large, especially reflected in the continuous decline of M1 growth. In the future, the demand for related supporting financing is expected to support credit under the financial acceleration, and the construction progress of major projects needs to be concerned; In addition, attention should also be paid to the use progress of newly established refinancing tools, such as the 500 billion yuan refinancing for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation set up in April, and the 300 billion yuan refinancing for affordable housing set up in May. On the whole, domestic demand is still relatively insufficient at this stage, but the short-term adjustment of financial data still needs to be viewed rationally. However, "squeezing water" may increase the allocation demand of safety assets.
Government bond issuance accelerated to support social finance. Among the financial data in May, the biggest marginal change was government bond financing, due to the support of the issuance of special government bonds (the net financing of government bonds in May under the wind standard was 691.29 billion yuan, compared with 76.71 billion yuan in the same period last year), and the marginal acceleration of the issuance of special local government bonds (the net financing of special local government bonds in May under the wind standard was 392.41 billion yuan, compared with 262.408 billion yuan in the same period last year), Government bond financing increased by 1225.3 billion yuan in May, a significant increase of 668.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the main reason for supporting social financing in May. It is expected that the subsequent government bonds will gradually strengthen the support for social finance.
In addition to government bonds, another support in social finance is corporate bond financing. On the one hand, the marginal impact of urban investment and chemical debt has weakened. Under the Wind caliber, the net decrease in May was 44.5 billion yuan, 23.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and the same increase in April was 244.7 billion yuan. On the other hand, the low base also contributed. In the same period last year, corporate bond financing decreased by 214.4 billion yuan, significantly weaker than the seasonality. In other sub items, undiscounted bank acceptance bills may be affected by the month on month decrease in bill financing on the balance sheet, and the substitution effect is weakened, with a year-on-year decrease of 46.3 billion yuan. Entrusted loans and trust loans have little change, because non-standard financing has changed from a year-on-year increase of 311.4 billion yuan last month to a year-on-year decrease of 34.1 billion yuan. Stock financing and foreign currency loans have little change, with relatively limited impact.
On balance sheet credit demand is not strong, and the structure still needs to be improved. The largest support is still bill financing, which is the same as that in April, but the marginal strength is weakened. Enterprise side: Medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 500 billion yuan in the same month, which was weaker than that after the epidemic and stronger than that before the epidemic in the same period, or was related to the relatively slow financial investment, the fall in demand for related supporting financing, and the impact of "squeezing water". Looking back, these impacts are expected to be mitigated in the second half of the year. Resident side: Short term loans of residents increased by 24.3 billion yuan, and medium - and long-term loans increased by 51.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 291.5 billion yuan in total, reflecting the weak consumer demand and housing purchase demand of residents. On the one hand, the sales improvement of new houses after the "517" New Deal is mainly concentrated in some first tier and second tier cities, and the data in May has not been fully reflected; On the other hand, the interest margin between the new housing loan interest rate and the stock has expanded, or to some extent, it has led to an increase in the demand for early repayment.
The influence of "squeezing water" on deposit relocation is still large. The growth rate of M1 further dropped to - 4.2%, and the increase was obviously weaker than seasonality for two consecutive months. In addition to reflecting that the entity's vitality was still insufficient, under the manual interest supplement correction, enterprise deposits may be transferred to financial management or goods base transfer. The year-on-year decrease of corporate deposits (- 116.4 billion yuan) and the year-on-year increase of non bank deposits (837.9 billion yuan) can be reflected by the relatively abundant liquidity of non bank (R and DR interest margin narrowing). The continued decline of M2 growth rate is still affected by the reduction of deposit derivatives due to the decline of credit and the slow financial supply.
Risk tip: the implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth is not as expected; Risk disposal of real estate and local government debt was not as expected.
