Event: The company released the 2023 annual report and 2024 first quarter report, and in 2023, the company realized an operating revenue of 4.845 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 707 million yuan, up 6.93% year on year; Non net profit deduction was RMB 656 million, up 2.89% year on year. In 2024, Q1 Company will achieve an operating revenue of 1.051 billion yuan, down 11.12% year on year and 1.46% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 137 million yuan, down 11.32% year on year and 14.18% month on month; Non net profit deduction was RMB 129 million, down 10.60% year on year and 0.46% month on month.
The performance of the company has achieved steady growth in 23 years, and the demand is weak. The performance of Q1 in 24 years is under pressure: the performance of the company will grow steadily in 2023, mainly because the company's aluminum electrolytic capacitors have achieved a revenue growth of more than 30% in new energy and energy storage, electric vehicles, charging piles and other application fields. In 2023, the gross profit margin of the company will be 26.08%, -0.29 pct year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in operating costs of electronic components; The net profit rate of the company was 14.66%,+0.01pct year-on-year. The change direction of net profit rate was opposite to that of gross profit rate, which was mainly due to the sharp increase of other income. In terms of expenses, in 2023, the sales, management, R&D and financial expenses of the company will be 1.58%/3.20%/4.79%/-0.22%, with year-on-year changes of -0.15/-0.004/-0.05/+0.55pct. Among them, in 2023, both the financial expense rate and the absolute value increased year on year, mainly due to the decrease of exchange earnings. The performance of Q1 Company declined in 24 years, mainly due to low industry prosperity, insufficient demand, price reduction and other factors. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin of Q1 in 24 years was 23.58%, - 2.21 pcts year-on-year and - 2.31 pcts month on month; The net interest rate was 13.18%,+0.12 pct year-on-year and -1.98 pcts month on month. The 23 year annual report of the company shows that the de stocking in the wind solar storage field is gradually coming to an end, and the demand for film capacitors in the above applications is expected to grow by 20%. At the same time, the industry prosperity is gradually rising, the market demand has also improved, and the company's 24 year annual performance growth is highly certain.
Customers in various fields of supply of film capacitors: With the end of de stocking and the steady development of the industry, the demand for film capacitors in the application end of wind and solar storage is gradually warming up. In April 2024, the company said that in 2024, the order of Q1 company's film capacitors in the wind/solar storage field had slightly improved month on month; In 2016, the investment progress of the newly issued "High Voltage High Capacity Film Capacitor Expansion" project exceeded 70%, and achieved rapid income and profit increase. By the end of 2023, the company's film capacitors have entered the stage of mass application in the field of consumer electronics and industrial equipment, started mass delivery in new energy, military industry and other fields, and obtained orders for two years in the field of electric vehicles. To sum up, the company's film capacitor business is expected to usher in rapid growth. The company expects that the film capacitor revenue will achieve a substantial growth of more than 40% in 2024, and said that it will carry out technological transformation and expansion based on market demand and the company's actual capacity.
AI servers continue to boom, and MLPC products are expected to be gradually scaled up: MLPC, solid and solid liquid hybrid aluminum electrolytic capacitors are one of the key components of AI related servers. According to the forecast data of Verified MarketResearch, the global AI server market is expected to grow to US $166.6 billion in 2030, and the CAGR of the global AI server market will be about 17.45% in 2024-2030. With the rapid development of Al technology, AI's demand for hardware has also increased significantly, and the company's MLPC products have broad market application prospects. In February 2024, the company said on the investor interactive question and answer platform that the relevant user testing and identification of the company's MLPC products are being carried out step by step, and it is expected that there will be practical applications in the second half of 2024; At present, the capacity utilization rate of MLPC capacitor is still not high, and it is expected to expand production in the future. After years of R&D investment, the company's MLPC capacitors, solid and solid liquid hybrid aluminum electrolytic capacitors have achieved major breakthroughs in performance. Benefiting from the rapid growth of AI, the above products are expected to become important growth poles of aluminum electrolytic capacitors in the future.
Lower the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating: the company is mainly engaged in the R&D, manufacturing and sales of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, film capacitors and supercapacitors. The company's products are widely used in industrial automation, robots, consumer electronics, rail transit, 5G communication equipment, new energy, smart grid, military industry and other fields. In 2023, the company's film capacitors have achieved batch application in many fields; The company's MLPC capacitor has also made a major breakthrough in technology and materials. Benefiting from the rapid growth of AI server demand and its successive application in data centers, the demand for AI hardware has increased significantly, and the company's MLPC business is also expected to witness rapid growth. We are optimistic about the company's future performance development. Considering that the photovoltaic market downstream of the company's film capacitors is still under pressure, we have lowered our profit forecast. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024-2026 will be 832 million yuan, 1.033 billion yuan and 1.265 billion yuan respectively, with EPS of 98, 1.22 and 1.49 yuan per share, and PE of 15X, 12X and 10X respectively.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, technology R&D risk, risk of intensified industrial competition, and impact of exchange rate fluctuations.
