Pig breeding: pig price fluctuates in a narrow range, and production capacity is reduced or extended. In terms of supply, the pace of enterprise marketing is normal; On the demand side, the operating rate of slaughterhouses is low, and consumption is relatively flat. Under the continuous game of supply and demand, the overall pig price presents a narrow range of shocks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of live pigs in April was 15.35 yuan/kg,+2.66% month on month and+4.65% month on month. Under the bullish mood, some farmers still hold down the slaughter. According to Yongyi Consulting, the national average selling weight of commercial pigs in April was 126.08kg,+1.89% month on month. In April, the industry capacity was reduced or extended. In April, the pig plague in Africa was relatively stable, and farmers in regions with high vacancy rate increased production capacity moderately; Due to the pressure of cash flow, some scale markets and group markets have moderately reduced production capacity. According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, the number of breeding sows on hand at the end of March was 39.92 million, - 3.6% quarter on quarter (down about 1.24% month on month in March). The price of piglets is still high. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of piglets in April was 36.73 yuan/kg,+14.38% month on month, -0.43% month on month. In April, the growth rate of pig sales of listed companies turned negative, and 15 listed companies in the pig breeding industry sold a total of 12.07 million pigs in April, - 0.6% year-on-year.
White feather broiler breeding: the price of commercial seedlings has been adjusted in shock, and the overseas varieties of ancestors have been introduced normally. In April, the price range of chicken seedlings fluctuated slightly, and the overall change was limited. 1) According to the statistics of the Steel Council, as of the end of April, the price of the commercial chicken fry of white feather broilers was 2.70 yuan/feather, and the average price in April was 2.84 yuan/feather, 17.68% lower than the average price in March of 3.45 yuan/feather. 2) According to the statistics of the Steel Council, as of the end of April, the transaction price of the chicken was 3.86 yuan/jin, and the average price in April was 3.84 yuan/jin, up 2.11% month on month.
Investment suggestions: In terms of pig breeding, it is expected that pig prices will rise in May (supply pressure will begin to ease, and demand will improve month on month); It is still possible to reduce production capacity (cash flow pressure of enterprises has increased significantly, and there is a lack of window to fill columns); Under the transmission of capacity reduction, the price cycle reverses gradually, and it is still recommended to allocate pig breeding at the bottom.
Related subjects: Muyuan Shares, Wenshi Shares, New Wufeng, Superstar Farming and Animal Husbandry, etc. In terms of white feather chicken breeding, at present, the breeding side has increased the sentiment of compensation, and the downstream price stability of wool chicken has formed support for the seedling price. We believe that with the gradual reversal of the pig cycle, the commodity substitute price is expected to resonate with the pig price. Related subjects: Yisheng Shares, Shengnong Development, etc.
Risk tips: livestock and poultry price fluctuation risk, food safety risk, animal disease uncertainty risk, extreme disaster risk, feed raw material fluctuation risk
