Instant comment on polysilicon industry: the price of polysilicon is bottoming out and stabilizing, and the industry is deeply shuffled

event:

    The latest quotation of Silicon Industry Branch shows that:

    The transaction price range of n-type rod silicon is RMB 40-45000/ton, and the average transaction price is RMB 43000/ton, which is the same month on month. The transaction price range of p-type dense material is 3400-39000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 37300 yuan/ton, which is the same month on month. The price difference of n/p bar silicon is 4400 yuan/ton. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon is 3700-39000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 37500 yuan/ton, which is the same month on month.

    Comments:

    The silicon material transaction is deadlocked, and the transaction volume is reduced:

    From the perspective of transaction, the LaCrystal Factory insists on the purchase mode of "purchase while using, a small number of times", and continues to maintain the mentality of price depression; Under the background of oversold losses, the material enterprises have a low willingness to yield profits, and the transaction is in a stalemate, with the overall trading volume and scope shrinking. This week, two enterprises of n-type silicon rod and two enterprises of p-type silicon rod have clinched deals. The newly increased turnover of polysilicon enterprises in the past week is relatively limited, and most of them are based on the implementation of early orders. No large-scale price reduction and new orders have been signed yet. At the current price level, silicon material enterprises have no incentive to sign orders.

    The industry is in full loss, cash is king, and deep reshuffle:

    Energy Trend is calculated according to the mainstream quotation. Since April, P. The price of N-type silicon material has been close to the profit and loss balance line of the material enterprise. Based on the current price, most manufacturers can no longer cover the three costs. The gross profit rate per ton is about - 20% to - 30%. The silicon material link has entered the stage of backward supply side and high cost capacity clearance. Manufacturers with abundant cash flow can still maintain production operations, while the middle and tail manufacturers are under the pressure of cost and price killing, It is expected that production will eventually be suspended and cleared.

    The supply and demand are seriously unbalanced, the maintenance reduces the supply, and the short-term support price is stable:

    First, on the demand side, downstream silicon chip profits cannot be repaired in the short term, and silicon chip inventory still needs time to dissipate; On the supply side, after the new capacity of leading manufacturers was put into production in the second quarter, the supply and demand relationship was completely unbalanced. At present, low price orders are concentrated on some new manufacturers and material enterprises with cash flow difficulties, whose P and N type quotations are lower than mainstream quotations. As of this week, there were 17 polysilicon production enterprises in China, and the number of overhaul enterprises remained at 5. At present, more than half of the leading enterprises have maintenance plans. This week, there was no new actual shutdown maintenance project, but more enterprises have started to promote maintenance planning. It is expected that the supply of silicon material will be further reduced, and the short-term mainstream transaction price of silicon material is expected to stabilize.

    On the whole, the supply and demand of silicon materials are unbalanced, and the inventory is high. The key to determining the price trend is the supply side clearing speed. The industry has begun a deep reshuffle, and cash is king.