2024Q1 overseas aviation market scene tolerance tracking: overseas airlines' demand side continues to recover, cost side is still under pressure
Summary of overseas aviation market Q1 2024
Global perspective: the capacity and volume of the global aviation market keep growing. From January to March 2024, the global aviation passenger turnover (RPK) increased by 16.9% year on year, and the industry wide ASK increased by 14.8% year on year. The passenger demand showed a growth level higher than the delivery capacity, which led to a year-on-year growth of 1.5 pts in the market load factor. Benefiting from the significant improvement of international routes in the Chinese market and the catalysis of the spring transportation peak season in the Chinese domestic market, the overall RPK growth in the Asia Pacific region led the world. On the supply side, the manufacturer's delivery of mainstream models in the first quarter of 24 was still at a low level. With the recovery of demand, the manufacturer's order volume maintained year-on-year growth.
Europe and the United States: The first quarter was the slack season for aviation in Europe and the United States. Superimposed by the impact of aircraft grounding, most airlines recorded losses in Q1. The demand recovered normally, and the passenger volume and income level of Delta Airlines, United Airlines and other airlines hit a new high in the first quarter. However, due to the high staff costs, oil prices and interest rates, the cost side of European and American airlines still has great pressure. Influenced by the manufacturer's capacity, airlines such as Southwest Airlines and United Airlines have all lowered their aircraft introduction plans. The European and American markets are still optimistic about demand in the peak season. It is expected that the demand for leisure and business passengers will further increase.
Other major aviation markets in Asia: passenger flows at major airports in Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea have not yet fully recovered. Transit airports that rely less on Chinese passengers benefit from stronger transit passenger flows and the outbreak of aviation demand in their own markets. Passenger flows have exceeded those before the epidemic.
Investment analysis opinions: reaffirm the "international+supply" two wheel drive investment main line, emphasize the different interpretations of different countries in different cycle stages, the recovery progress of China's aviation market is relatively backward, and the potential for airline revenue improvement has not been released, emphasize the attention to the recovery progress of international routes after overtime work, and attach importance to the supply side logic of the reinforcement of the disorder of the global aviation supply chain. Continue to be optimistic about the continued recovery of the aviation market, and recommend Lucky Airlines, Spring Airlines, Air China and China Southern Airlines. Focus on BOC Aviation Leasing, Huaxia Airlines, Shenzhen Airport, Baiyun Airport and Shanghai Airport.
Risk warning: oil exchange fluctuates significantly, economic growth is less than expected, aviation safety accident risk
