Barbie Food (605338): Q1 store opening steady rate significantly optimized

24Q1 performance splitting: 24Q1 company realized operating revenue of 354 million yuan (+10.74% year-on-year); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 40 million yuan (- 3.43% year-on-year), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 38 million yuan (+87.07% year-on-year).

    The store expanded steadily, and there was a gap in the revenue of single store year on year.

    1) Brand stores: 24Q1 franchise/direct sales revenue was 258 million yuan (+8.3%/- 8.0% year-on-year). ① In terms of the number of stores: 203 stores were added/152 stores were decreased in 24Q1, and the net increase was 51 to 5094 (130 stores were added in 23Q1). The progress of opening stores was in line with expectations. ② In terms of store quality, the revenue of a single store in 24Q1 fell by 2% year on year (calculated by the average store at the end of the period). We expect that the demand and competitive environment will have an impact.

    2) Group meal business: 24Q1 group meal business revenue increased by+20.9% year-on-year to 83 million yuan, accounting for+2.0pct year-on-year to 23.5%. It is expected that the accelerated development of group meal in North China/Central China will contribute, while the prefabricated vegetable business is still in the laying stage, and we expect to contribute to the performance in the future or in succession.

    3) In terms of regions, the revenue of East China/South China/Central China/North China in 24Q1 was+8%/38%/15%/24% year on year, and the revenue of regions outside East China accounted for+2.1 pct to 17.7% year on year. From the perspective of store expansion progress, the number of stores in East China/South China 24Q1 increased by 81/64, with a net increase of 3/53. The markets in Hunan, Anhui and Lianyungang actively expanded their stores. At the same time, the number of stores in North China 24Q1 decreased by 5, with a year-on-year improvement in store closing rate.

    4) By product, the income of 24Q1 noodle/stuffing/purchased food increased by+9%/17%/9% year on year, and the proportion of stuffing increased.

    Non net profit deduction basically recovered to the 22Q1 level, and the cost improved significantly.

    In 24Q1, the non net profit margin was reduced by+4.35pct to 10.66% year on year, of which the gross profit margin was+1.72pct year on year, because pork remained low; The sales/management rate was -2.27/2.02pct on a year-on-year basis, which was caused by the scale effect.

    24Q1 non recurring profit and loss was RMB 0.19 billion on a year-on-year basis, mainly due to the impact of changes in fair value brought by Dongpeng, the disposal of trading financial assets and some other non current financial assets.

    Looking forward to 24 years, the company will open 1000 stores internally, and the Hebei market is expected to expand. At present, the opening of stores is in line with the schedule; The same store repair depends on demand recovery+increasing the proportion of lunch and dinner. In terms of extension expansion, Q2 steamed whole flavor is expected to be consolidated, promoting the utilization rate of Nanjing's production capacity. The prefabricated dishes business was actively promoted, contributing to the second growth curve for group meals.

    Profit forecast: considering that there is still a gap in the revenue of individual stores and in combination with the annual report and the first quarter report, we reduce the forecast value of the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company for 24-25 years. It is estimated that the growth rate of the company's revenue in 24-26 years will be 15%/14%/13% respectively (the amount is 18.7/2.13/2.40 billion yuan, and the value before 24-25 years is 1.99/2.29 billion yuan), The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 16%/14%/13% (the amount was 250 million yuan/280 million yuan/320 million yuan, compared with 270 million yuan/320 million yuan 24 to 25 years ago), and the corresponding PE was 17X/15X/13X, maintaining the "buy" rating.

    Risk tip: the same store recovery is not as expected; Market competition intensifies; The cost of raw materials rises too fast