Pingmei Shares (601666): Non operating income from administrative expenses affects performance downward
Introduction to this report:
The clean coal strategy continued to advance, and the profitability remained stable under the fluctuation of objective and other factors. Continue to invest in future coal coke integration assets to promote increment.
Key investment points:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. In the first quarter of 2024, the company realized a revenue of 8.244 billion yuan (-4.47%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 740 million yuan (- 35.4%), in line with market expectations. We maintain the company's 24-26 EPS forecast of 1.70 yuan, 1.74 yuan and 1.82 yuan. Maintain the target price of 16.11 yuan.
The suspension of production caused a temporary decline in coal production and sales, which gradually recovered after resumption of production. In the first quarter of 2014, the company completed the raw coal output of 6.628 million tons, down 15% at the same time; The sales volume of commercial coal was 6.912 million tons, down 13%. The decline in overall production and sales in the first quarter was mainly caused by the shutdown and production stoppage caused by the high pressure of the regional safety supervision policy and the 1.12 accident of the company's subordinate No. 12 Coal Mine. At present, production has been fully resumed. It is estimated that the moment of the largest decline in output has passed, and sales in the second quarter are expected to rise.
The adjustment of product structure promoted the increase of average price, which is expected to continue in the second quarter. In the first quarter of 24 years, the company's cost per ton increased by 84 yuan/ton, the gross profit per ton was 322 yuan/ton, and the cost per ton increased by 16 yuan/ton due to the drop in output and the increase in cost due to shutdown. The average selling price of commercial coal was 1155 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton, higher than expected. The overall output decreased while the average price increased, which was judged to be the factor of the increase of clean coal output and the higher realized price, driving the overall average price upward. It is expected that the profit decline in the second quarter is expected to narrow, and the downward pressure on performance has passed its maximum.
The future increment depends on the group's asset injection. In order to solve the problem of horizontal competition, the Group promises to inject coking coal assets into listed companies, including Rufeng Technology (1.2 million tons/year coking), Shoushan Chemical, Jingbao Chemical, Zhonghong Coal Chemical, Xiadian Mine (1.5 million tons/year), Liangbei No.2 Well (1.2 million tons/year), and transfer them to listed companies or group subsidiaries within 36 months after production, It is expected to accelerate the integrated layout of coal and coke of the company.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is not as expected; Coal prices fell more than expected.
