Antu Biology (603658): performance meets expectations, and the hospital will recover in 2024
Key investment points
Event: The company released the 2023 annual report, and realized a revenue of 4.444 billion yuan in 2023 (+0.1%, year-on-year growth in parentheses, the same below); Net profit attributable to parent company is 1.217 billion yuan (+4.3%); Net profit not attributable to the parent company is 1.185 billion yuan (+5.9%); The net operating cash flow was 1.47 billion yuan (- 5.7%), and the performance was basically in line with expectations. At the same time, the company announced the first quarter report of 2024. In 2024Q1, the company realized a revenue of 1.089 billion yuan (+5.1%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 324 million yuan (+33.9%), which exceeded expectations.
The short-term anti-corruption was under pressure, and the recovery began to accelerate in 24Q1. The nationwide anti-corruption started in 2023H2, which had an impact on the company's business in the hospital. In 2023, the company's Q4 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 3.5% and 17.9% year on year respectively, and the month on month growth was - 4.2% and - 26.5% respectively. As the marginal impact of anti-corruption weakens, it is expected that the amount of hospital diagnosis and treatment will gradually recover quarter by quarter in 2024, and the performance in 2024 is expected.
Long term high R&D investment and accelerated release of products: the company continues to strengthen R&D investment, with R&D expenditure of 656 million yuan (+15%) in 2023, and R&D expenditure rate of 14.8% (+2.6 pct); By the end of December 2023, the company has obtained 705 product registration certificates (+56) and 470 EU CE certifications (+26). In 2023, the company's automatic biochemical analyzer AutoChemB801 series won the medical device registration certificate, the automatic microbial mass spectrometry detection system Autof ms series won the first EU IVDR microbial mass spectrometry detection system product registration certificate in China, and its subsidiary sequencer was listed in non clinical fields.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of industry anti-corruption and centralized purchase, we lowered the profit forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 1.799/2192 billion yuan to 1.536/1.82 billion yuan in 2024-2025. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2026 will be 2.234 billion yuan, and the current share price corresponds to 21/18/15 times of the estimated PE value in 2024-2026; Based on 1) accelerated recovery of the yard after anti-corruption in 2024; 2) New businesses such as molecules accelerated, and we maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the progress of new product research and development is less than expected, the chemiluminescence installation is less than expected, and the epidemic situation is more than expected.
