Securities II Industry Research Report: Monthly Report of Securities Firms: Review of February 2024 and Prospect of March 2024 of Securities Firms
Review of securities market in February 2024: in February, the securities market index stabilized and recovered significantly. The CITIC secondary industry index securities II rose 7.01% in the whole month, 2.34 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 Index. In February, the brokerage sector rebounded comprehensively, with an average P/B range of 1.128-1.265 times.
Core factors affecting the monthly operating performance of listed securities firms in February 2024:
(1) Equity rebounded rapidly, fixed income reached a new high, and equity neutral business pressure will lead to strong uncertainty in the proprietary business of listed securities companies. (2) The average daily turnover rebounded to the highest level since the second half of last year. However, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the industry's brokerage business prosperity hovered at a low level. (3) The balance of the two financial institutions recorded the largest monthly decline in the past 12 months, further expanding the negative marginal contribution to the business performance of listed securities firms in a single period.
(4) The total volume of investment banking business will reach the low level in recent years.
Investment suggestions: (1) Since March 2024, although all equity indexes have maintained a rebound trend, their resilience has decreased significantly, and there is still a relatively obvious differentiation among the indexes; Fixed income index fluctuated in the high range, and the short-term trend changed from rising to horizontal consolidation. On the whole, in March, the proprietary business of listed securities firms will change from high volatility to relatively stable. The operating results of proprietary equity are the core variable, and the decline of proprietary fixed income will inhibit the recovery of overall investment returns. (2) The sentiment has significantly warmed up, the average daily turnover has returned to the trillion mark, and the prosperity of the industry's brokerage business is expected to rise to the highest level in nearly 12 months. (3) Up to now, the recovery of the balance of the two financing businesses is expected to reach the highest level in nearly 12 months, and the marginal contribution of the two financing businesses to the operating performance of listed securities firms in a single period will change from negative to positive. (4) Driven by the relatively large increase in the scale of equity and debt financing on a month on month basis, it is expected that the total amount of industry investment banking business in March will achieve a relatively strong growth on a month on month basis. (5) Based on the latest changes in various factors of the current market, it is expected that the overall operating performance of the parent company of listed securities companies in March 2024 is expected to improve to a certain extent month on month. (6) Since March, the stockbroker index has failed to continue the rebound trend of the previous period, and turned to horizontal shock consolidation. The average P/B of the sector fluctuates in a narrow range of 1.25 times, and the overall pattern remains relatively strong. In the short term, the CSRC will focus on introducing four policies and measures to strengthen supervision, prevent risks and promote high-quality development, namely, improving the quality of listed companies from the source, strengthening the supervision of listed companies, accelerating the construction of first-class investment banks and institutions, and comprehensively strengthening self construction, and continue to improve the system and mechanism conducive to the long-term, stable and healthy development of the capital market. Under the policy guidance of continuous efforts to reform the investment side and fully maintain the stable operation of the capital market, the securities business sector is expected to be active again and again, and actively maintain the continuous attention to the securities business sector.
Risk tips: 1. The weakening of the equity and fixed income market environment has led to a decline in the overall business performance of the industry; 2. Market fluctuation risk; 3. The progress and strength of comprehensively deepening the reform of the capital market are not as expected
