Last week refers to March 11-17, 24 (the same below), and this week refers to March 18-24, 24 (the same below).
Key news tracking of this week
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in January and February, the added value of industries above designated size actually increased by 7.0% year on year.
Among them, the oil and natural gas exploitation industry increased by 3.0% year on year, and the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 10.0% year on year. In terms of three categories, in January and February, the added value of the mining industry increased by 2.3% year on year, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 7.9%.
Follow up comments on key product prices this week
WTI oil price fell 0.5% to 80.63 dollars/barrel this week.
Key sub industries: the prices of calcium carbide PVC/ethylene PVC/polymerization MDI/rubber rose 0.9%/0.8%/0.6%/0.4% respectively this week; Urea/TDI/DMF/ethylene glycol/pure MDI/spandex/silicone/solid methionine/acetic acid/liquid methionine prices fell respectively
5.8%/3%/2.8%/2.6%/1.5%/1.3%/1.2%/1.1%/0.9%/0.6%； VE/light soda ash/heavy soda ash/VA/titanium dioxide/viscose filament/viscose staple/caustic soda prices remain unchanged.
This week's top five chemical products: carbon dioxide (Shandong) (+41.7%), natural gas (Texas) (+20.7%), liquid chlorine (+20.6%), hydrogen (+7.1%), aniline (East China) (+7.1%).
Aniline: This week, the focus of the domestic aniline market moved up. Some aniline factories were overhauled successively. The output of the market supply side was reduced, and there were still maintenance plans. It is expected that the future cash flow is limited, and there is a small amount of stock sentiment in the downstream. The enthusiasm for receiving goods is moderate, and the superposition of export orders has slightly increased. At present, the factory shipments are relatively smooth, and the inventory pressure is small, The aniline manufacturers pushed up the prices and the aniline market climbed steadily.
Lysine: The price of lysine in the domestic market rose this week. By the end of March 21, the average price of 98% lysine in China was 10.22 yuan/kg, up 5.25% from last week. The market continued to rise, and the factories continued to increase their quotations, which are basically more than 10 yuan/kg at present. The factory's delivery speed is slow, the overseas signing is good, the domestic sales inquiry is active, the spot goods in some regions are tight, and the mainstream factories still have the intention to raise prices, so the price rises rapidly.
Market performance of chemical sector this week
The basic chemical sector fell 0.74% from last week, and the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index fell 0.7% from last week. The basic chemical sector underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.04 percentage points, ranking 21st among all sectors. According to Shen Wan's classification, the basic chemical sub industry saw a big weekly increase in viscose (+14.04%), other fibers (+7.19%), other plastic products (+3.11%), textile chemicals (+2.09%), and oil trade (+2.03%).
Focus on sub industry views
In 2024, when the contradiction between supply and demand is still fierce, we will focus on the rigid field of demand, and pay attention to the plate where the supply side is still constrained. Relying on the advantages of energy, industrial chain integration and domestic large market, after the completion of the chemical industry cluster, China will move towards the road of industrial high-end upgrading. In the future, the field of fine chemical new materials will become the main investment direction.
We suggest paying attention to:
① Cycle recovery of the electronics industry: key recommendation: Wanrun Shares; Suggested attention: Huate Gas, Jinhong Gas, Zhongchuan Special Gas, Guangzhou Iron and Steel Group, Ruilian New Material, Wright Optoelectronics, and Aolaide.
② Look for structural opportunities in the boom recovery: there are flexible agrochemical and tire sectors on the demand side, and the demand is stable and is expected to usher in boom recovery under continuous destocking; Titanium dioxide and fluorine chemical plates with orderly expansion or limited supply at the supply end. Highlight: Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares; Suggested attention: Linglong Tire, Sailun Tire, Sen Qilin, Longbai Group, Sanmei, Juhua, Yonghe, Yuntianhua, Yak International.
③ Focus on high-quality development of leading enterprises: key recommendations: Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng.
④ Focusing on investment opportunities in the field of cutting-edge materials, the application of synthetic biology and catalysts in the chemical industry is expected to usher in broad development space. Highlight: Huaheng Biology, Kaili New Material (jointly covered with the metal and material team).
Risk warning: the risk of substantial fluctuations in the price of crude oil and other raw materials; The risk of substantial capacity expansion; Safety production and environmental protection risks; The demand for chemicals is less than expected
