The position of actively managed public funds in the chemical sector increased by 23Q3 month on month. In 2023Q3, the overall configuration ratio of the chemical industry (excluding two barrels of oil) is 5.55%, and the over configuration ratio is -0.10%. The configuration ratio is 2.12 pct higher than that of 23Q2, and the over configuration ratio is 1.87 pct higher than that of 23Q2. In terms of industries, the allocation proportion of the petroleum and petrochemical industry (excluding two barrels of oil) is 1.06%, and the over allocation proportion is -0.72%, with a link ratio of+0.58pct and+0.34pct respectively; The allocation proportion of basic chemical industry is 4.49%, and the proportion of over allocation is 0.62%, with a link ratio of+1.54pct and+1.53pct respectively. Oil and gas prices remained high and volatile, the profit center of the upstream oil and gas industry rose, and the allocation ratio of two barrels of oil increased month on month; For 23Q3, the allocation ratio of two barrels of oil is 0.31%, the over allocation ratio is -2.09%, and the link ratio is+0.11pct and -0.04pct respectively.
The allocation proportion of sub industries has risen month on month, and the tire, agricultural chemicals, fine chemicals and new materials, oil and gas storage and sales sectors are in an over allocation state. The allocation proportion of tire, oil and gas storage and sales, agricultural chemicals, fine chemicals and new materials is 0.65%, 0.13%, 1.06% and 1.37% respectively, and the link ratio is+0.24pct,+0.06pct,+0.46pct and+0.45pct respectively; The proportion of over allocation is 0.50%, 0.05%, 0.40% and 0.31% respectively, and the ring ratio is+0.23pct,+0.06pct,+0.45pct and+0.46pct respectively. Oil and gas prices continued to fluctuate at a high level, and oil and gas storage and sales expenses increased. The tire sector benefited from domestic automobile consumption policies and the recovery of tire exports in Southeast Asia.
Core assets are still the main line of allocation, and the value based leading positions with low valuations have increased significantly month on month. From the perspective of individual share fund allocation, the top ten chemical enterprises in 2023Q3 are Wanhua Chemical (13.923 billion yuan), Hualu Hengsheng (12.290 billion yuan), Sailun Tire (9.434 billion yuan), CNOOC (6.672 billion yuan), Guoci Materials (3.779 billion yuan), Yuanxing Energy (3.645 billion yuan), PetroChina (3.575 billion yuan), Rongsheng Petrochemical (2.749 billion yuan) Guanghui Energy (2.446 billion yuan), Jacques Technology (2.136 billion yuan).
It is suggested to focus on: (1) Oil and gas assets with high dividends: PetroChina, PetroChina, CNOOC, CNOOC, etc; (2) From 0 to 1, new industries: Huaheng Biology, Runfeng Shares, Ruifeng New Materials, Taihe New Materials, Saite New Materials, Zhenhua Shares, Wanrun Shares, Glinda, etc; (3) Finding inflection points at the bottom of the cycle: Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, Yuanxing Energy, Longbai Group, private refining and chemical (Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong), tires (Sailun Tire, Senqilin, Linglong Tire), refrigerants (Juhua Shares, Yonghe Shares), chemical fibers (Xinfengming, Tongkun Shares, Huafeng Chemical), etc.
Risk tip: the heavy position holding cannot fully reflect the fund's position information, the price fluctuation of raw materials, and the recovery of downstream demand is not as expected.
