event:
The company released the performance forecast for the first half of 2021, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 69059500 yuan - 79963600 yuan, up 90% - 120% year on year.
Key investment points:
With the steady development of high-end equipment, the production and sales of new chemical materials are booming, and the company's performance in the first half of the year has increased significantly. In the first half of the year, the company's net profit increased by 90% - 120% year on year, achieving a substantial growth, mainly due to the steady development of high-end equipment manufacturing, the further growth of production and sales in the field of new chemical materials, and the relatively large increase in profitability; At the same time, the company adheres to the business objective of steady development, constantly optimizes internal management efficiency, increases efficiency and reduces costs, and strengthens cost control.
Military composite materials are used in aerospace defense and other fields. The company plans to increase production and scale up, which is expected to usher in accelerated development. Carbon fiber composites are widely used in the aerospace field. In 2019, China's aerospace carbon fiber composites market demand is about 2154 tons, with a total output value of about 15.08 billion yuan; Due to the need for lightweight, rail transit equipment is also expected to become a new incremental market for carbon fiber composite materials, with an average annual market size of 30000 to 50000 tons. The company's composite products have been applied to the above high-end equipment manufacturing field in batches, and the composite orders being fulfilled include the stealth and destruction resistant insulation cabin of multiple models of launch vehicles in the military industry, the insulation cabin of multiple models of military transport vehicles, the carbon fiber composite parts of satellite antenna, and the carbon fiber structural parts of the head of the maglev train in the rail transit field Carbon fiber structural parts of maglev train body, etc. The company has increased the layout of its composite material business. The total amount of funds raised from the proposed non-public offering of shares will not exceed 650 million yuan. The company will invest in composite parts production base projects, sheet metal parts production line technology innovation projects, and repay bank loans. The implementation of projects will help the company break through production bottlenecks, improve market competitiveness, and expand business scale, Further enhance the profitability of the main business.
Polyester resin for powder coating is the industry leader, accelerating the expansion of production capacity, and is expected to continue to benefit from the development of the industry. In recent years, the sales volume of polyester resin for powder coatings in China has continued to grow, and the compound annual growth rate during the 13th Five Year Plan period reached 14.53%. The company has been deeply engaged in the field of polyester resin for powder for many years, with an annual production capacity of 200000 tons. Its sales volume will reach 185400 tons in 2020, ranking first in China in terms of market share. The company plans to build a new polyester resin project with an annual output of 100000 tons, and continues to accelerate its expansion to the upstream NPG field of the industrial chain, which is expected to continue to benefit from the development of the industry.
Profit forecast and investment rating: maintain the buy rating. Based on the principle of prudence, the impact on the company's performance and share capital will not be considered until the completion of this non-public offering. Considering the growth of composite materials, the new chemical materials business is expanding, so the profit forecast for 2022 is raised. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be 155 million yuan, 220 million yuan (the previous value is 200 million yuan) and 299 million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 0.19 yuan, 0.26 yuan and 0.36 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 27 times, 19 times and 14 times, maintaining the buying rating.
Risk tips: 1) The development of high-end equipment manufacturing business is not as expected; 2) The development of chemical business is not as expected; 3) The progress of additional issuance and raised investment projects is not as expected; 4) Systematic risk.
