Weekly report of the software and service industry: the large-scale implementation of ICT servers promotes the recovery of the industry and sector from the impact of the epidemic
This week's market: Since the beginning of the year (January 1 to date), the computer sector has gained the third place, 15.34%. In only three trading days this week, the GEM rose from 2069.43 to 2125.24, up 2.70%. The computer sector was stronger than the GEM, up 3.77%, ranking 3/30 in the industry. PE (ttm) under the industry valuation median method is 60.
Core view of the industry: Cloud+ICT in the near future
1. Telecom server bidding, laying the foundation for market-oriented recognition. This time, China Telecom's national centralized procurement, with 20% of the share handed over to domestic CPU servers with Kunpeng and Haiguang as the core, is more significant than the performance of magnitude. 1) In the past, most domestic servers were purchased in small quantities by government departments. It was the first time for a single customer to purchase in large quantities. The proportion of domestic servers played a guiding role in the industry; 2) The corresponding Huawei and Dawning are originally the core suppliers of the operators' servers. In a sense, the server manufacturers also play a key role in the process of chip marketization as channels, and the overall product capability is what customers are looking for; 3) The loosening of the chip monopoly pattern has brought about the improvement of the profitability of downstream manufacturers; 4) The Kunpeng production line blooms everywhere, and Dawning has also deployed a large number of production capacity, which reflects confidence in market demand; 5) The appearance of visible quantity will attract more manufacturers to join the design and production of domestic CPU servers; 6) The main core systems will still use traditional Intel X86 servers, and the expected total server demand this year may further increase. The good news of Kunpeng catalyst and server market is expected to continue this year.
2. The large-scale production of domestic servers has the transmission effect in the field of infrastructure. The number of servers, middleware, operating system and security protection directly adapted to the installation will also be directly increased, while various information innovation applications and connected PCs will play a leading role. At the same time, telecommunications, finance, and government affairs are all starting on a large scale. This part has raised the requirements for binding with downstream integrators. The past pattern of independent operation of integrators and upstream manufacturers may be reshaped.
3. The profitability of computers in 19 years is more polarized than that in 18 years, and the overall growth rate has increased. The impact of Q1 epidemic in 20 years is an episode, and the general trend will recover before the end of the year. For details, please refer to our industry analysis report.
4. Huawei has established a 5G automobile ecosystem with 18 automobile enterprises. Another "Huawei chain" has begun to take shape, and the catalyst for the ICV sector will also gradually approach.
5. Last week, our weekly report suggested that the strong growth and persistence of overseas cloud computing leaders had boosted the upstream infrastructure and the information and innovation drive brought by the blooming of Kunpeng ecology everywhere. This week, there was a major industry catalyst, which was still in the server field. Before the conference, the new infrastructure related industry was still the core policy catalytic main line. Considering the number of data centers opened in the first week of May, we judged that the server might be the strongest sector in the near future.
Relevant sectors and individual stocks:
Medical treatment: Sichuang Yihui, Chuangye Huikang, Weining Health, Meditech; Xinchuang system software: Boland, Chengmai Technology; Industrial Internet&big data: Orient Guoxin, Tuolz, Meiya Boke; Huawei chain hardware end: Radio and TV Express; Intelligent networking: Qianfang Technology, Zhongke Chuangda; Information security: Qiming Star, Nanyang Shares, Lvmeng Technology; Cloud computing: Guanglianda, Inspur Information, and Baoxin Software.
Risk tip: The computer industry has a strong post cycle attribute, and the continuous business status of downstream customers will lag behind in the procurement of informatization, so the second quarter is still under pressure.
