Economic data: due to the weakened policy effect, the information of superimposed economic entities is still insufficient, and the economic supply side is strong, but domestic demand is weak. The data of several major economic indicators are mixed, and the performance of the production side is strong, but domestic demand is weak, consumption, investment, etc. are falling back more than expected, and the marginal contribution of external demand to the economy is increasing. In April, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value accelerated by 2.2 percentage points to 6.7%; The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.3% year on year, slowing down by 0.8 percentage points, the lowest since February 2023; From January to April, the year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment fell 0.3 percentage points to 4.2%. The previously announced export stopped falling and recovered, from a year-on-year decline of 7.5% in March to an increase of 1.5%, and the external demand continued to improve. With the rapid issuance of trillions of special national debt and the strong introduction of the policy of stabilizing real estate, the economy, especially investment, is expected to improve significantly, and the future constraints may mainly lie in consumption.
Capital analysis: the price of capital remains stable; The tax period of next week is coming. Pay attention to the impact of the tax period on the capital. This week, the central bank launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. This week, 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired. In addition, on Wednesday, 125 billion yuan MLF expired, and the central bank continued to do the same. Therefore, this week, the central bank fully hedged the maturity in the open market. The tax period was postponed, and the capital price remained stable this week. Affected by the May Day holiday, the tax period of this month has been postponed to the next week. Specifically, next Wednesday is the deadline for tax payment, Thursday and Friday are the days for tax payment, and May is the traditional month for tax payment. The impact of the tax period deserves attention. In terms of open market operations, the central bank maintained a daily reverse repo operation of 2 billion yuan this week, and the maturity of reverse repo next week is at a low level, which is expected to have little impact on the capital. Although the pace of special treasury bond issuance is clear, the amount of government bond financing will continue to rise significantly next week, and the pace of financing is relatively gentle. It is expected that the limited interest rate bonds will be impacted by capital: the economy will continue to recover weakly, the real estate policy will be released continuously, and it is expected that the policy stimulus will continue to increase in the future, and the negative sentiment formed by the real estate will continue. At present, from the perspective of the market, due to the continued downturn in the real estate data, The negative effects of the policy were digested in a relatively short time. This Friday, the central bank again made a statement that the interest rate range of long-term treasury bonds was 2.59% - 3%, which caused great panic in the early morning. This bad news is expected to exist for a long time in the future. This week, the supply of super long treasury bonds was negative, and the first issue result was lower than expected, which did not achieve a good start. The market price was flat, and the valuation of the day before yesterday was high. At least, the negative emotional disturbance on the supply side has been removed. At present, there are still many negative factors in the bond market. After the supply landing, the real estate policy will continue to be released+the central bank will continue to shout to become the dominant, and the volatility of long-term interest rates will continue to increase. At present, the focus on real estate and inflation data can only grasp transactional opportunities.
Equity market: This week, the overall market adjusted, and the financial style was strong. Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, Kechuang 50, GEM Index, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 "fell 0.02%. 0.22% and 1.66% respectively. 0.70%.0.79%。 0.20%, CSI 300 rose 0.32%. In terms of industry style, the performance of financial style this week was strong, up 2.95%, and the performance of growth style was weak, down 0.51%. In terms of industries, the performance of real estate, building materials, and building decoration in Shenwan level industries was strong, up 12.65% and 5.03% respectively. 3.00%, household appliances, medicine and biology, and coal were weak, down 2.36%. 2.12%. 2.10% respectively. The net inflow of northbound funds this week was 8.762 billion yuan. Looking into the future, the recent domestic steady growth policy continued to be released, the real estate policy combination or support the real estate market, the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds, and the central finance began to take power. It is expected that in the next six months, the opportunities for domestic demand related assets will be greater and the risks will be lower compared with the export chain. In terms of the performance of the domestic aerospace industry, as a whole, the aerospace industry has not yet seen a significant inflection point in 2024Q1, but the release of industry demand is expected to be reflected in the second half of the year. The fundamental improvement led by the release of industry demand and the valuation repair brought about by the establishment of new market expectations are expected to make the aerospace sector welcome Davis double click. In the future, it will mainly focus on core assets, pro cyclical sectors, and real estate portfolio or promote the repair of short-term real estate chain. After that, we will focus on: 1) real estate policy; 2) Government bond issuance speed; 3) US dollar index analysis of infrastructure project commencement: US CPI data in March fell more than expected, and the US dollar index fell this week. This week, the US CPI data for April was released, and the year-on-year report of 3.4% was in line with expectations. The month on month rise was 0.3%, slightly lower than the market expectation. The year-on-year growth of core CPI also fell on the previous value. In contrast, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently said that inflation is expected to continue to fall, but confidence has weakened, and it is still difficult to confirm the timing of the interest rate cut cycle. In addition to Powell, other Fed officials also expressed concern about the inflation data, stressing that the Fed should maintain inflation at a high level for a longer time. Although the incremental dove signal disclosed by Federal Reserve officials this week was limited, the dollar index fell this week due to the CPI data falling more than expected.
Risk tip: monetary policy tightened more than expected, and the economy recovered more than expected, leading to a sharp rebound in bond yields. The deterioration of local fiscal conditions led to the concentrated presentation of credit risks of urban investment bonds. The US economy and inflation data exceeded expectations, and the tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve prolonged
