Macroeconomic weekly report: waiting for the effect of internal and external policies to emerge
In terms of the external environment, in the United States, the number of initial jobless claims in the week of May 11 was higher than expected but lower than the previous value; In April, the import price index, affected by the rise in energy prices, was far higher than expected month on month, rising for four consecutive months, and continued to accelerate year on year after becoming regular last month; In addition, manufacturing output turned negative month on month in April, indicating insufficient growth momentum in the industrial sector. Several members with voting rights this year, including the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, made public speeches saying that the data in a single month was not enough to determine the downward trend of inflation in the medium term. They lacked confidence in cutting interest rates, and interest rates would remain high. The minutes of the monetary policy meeting also implied that the Federal Reserve was not so sure about the degree of policy restrictions. If there were no definite signs of inflation and the job market, the expectation of interest rate cuts would still be suppressed.
In Europe, the year-on-year decline of German PPI has expanded, further stabilizing the expectation of downward inflation in Europe; The trade data in March showed that both imports and exports in the euro area declined, and the endogenous economic momentum was still weak. At a time when the economic and inflation trends are gradually determined, European Central Bank officials have a more consistent attitude towards the interest rate cut in June.
In terms of the domestic environment, in terms of data, the economic data in April continued the trend of stronger supply than demand, and the industrial added value benefited from a higher than expected rise in exports, but the momentum of consumption and fixed asset investment was weakened; In addition, the general public budget revenue from January to April is still under pressure after deducting the impact of special factors. The sharp retreat of the year-on-year growth rate of corporate income tax and the negative year-on-year growth rate of value-added tax reflect that corporate profits are still weak, while the year-on-year decline of individual income tax is mainly affected by the decline of the base effect of individual income tax deferred warehousing at the beginning of last year. General public budget expenditure remains positive driven by infrastructure investment, and government fund expenditure is still dragged down by the slow issuance of land finance and special bonds. In terms of policies, supporting policies for real estate were introduced intensively, and both supply and demand sides continued to increase their efforts to help real estate destocking. Although the effect of the policy remains to be observed, the country's determination to solve the real estate problem has been very clear, which will help drive market confidence and help stabilize the credit cycle.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions continued to rise, and the agricultural wholesale price 200 index remained weak. In the middle reaches, steel prices rebounded and cement prices rebounded at a low level. On the upstream side, coal prices rebounded, non-ferrous metal prices remained strong, precious metal prices fluctuated at a high level, and crude oil prices fell slightly.
Risk warning: the US economy slows down faster than expected, geopolitical uncertainty intensifies, and policy effect is less than expected
