event:
On May 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released data that in April, the added value of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 6.7% year on year, and the investment in fixed assets of social consumer goods increased by 4.2% year on year; After deducting the investment in real estate development, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 8.9%. In terms of different fields, the foundation was 9.7%, and the investment in real estate development fell 9.8%. From January to April, the average unemployment rate of the national urban survey was 5.2%.
Key data points 1: The slope of industrial repair is upward, equipment manufacturing led the growth in April, and the added value of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 6.7% year-on-year, 2.2 percentage points faster than that of last month; The month on month growth was 0.97%. 2.0%, the manufacturing industry grew by 7.5%, and the power, heat, gas and water production and supply industries grew by 5.8%. From the perspective of specific industries and products, the added value of the industry increased year on year, with the growth rate reaching 87.8%, of which the equipment manufacturing industry led the growth, with the added value increasing 9.9% year on year. For the whole manufacturing industry, the automobile, electronics, railway and shipbuilding industries increased respectively. From the perspective of 1 production, 6 products and 3 products, 1 export, 5 export, 6 phase,%, 13 industry, 2% chain, and equipment manufacturing, the production of new energy steam, vehicle integrated circuits, industrial robots and other products has maintained the top position, and the long-term production of energy vehicles has increased rapidly. Auto sales and exports continue to maintain rapid growth year on year. Relevant policies such as auto innovation are still being implemented in depth. The market consumption potential is expected to further expand, driving the growth rate of equipment manufacturing to maintain high growth. The overall effect of "updating" is constantly emerging. The year-on-year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size has increased for three consecutive quarters. PMI has pointed to the continuous recovery of industrial economy for two consecutive months, forming a strong support with policy support.
Data point 2: The growth rate of infrastructure slowed down, the manufacturing industry maintained a high growth from January to April, and the national fixed asset investment increased by 4.2% year on year; Excluding real estate development investment, national fixed asset investment increased by 8.6.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 9.7%, and real estate development investment decreased by 9.8%. From January to April, the growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry was still at a high level, and the investment in high-tech industry increased by 11.1% year on year. The railway is still the main driving force for the growth of infrastructure investment. The overall road investment in marginal roads, ships, aerospace and other transport equipment, electronic equipment, special equipment base and construction and communication investment and equipment reserve are both entrusted by the rapid growth rate of 100 million yuan countries. At the end of the year, the growth of water conservancy management expanded, while the growth of public facilities investment related to special debt fell back. The slow progress of special bond issuance has dragged down the progress of special bond issuance on infrastructure investment by only 18.5%, which is less than the past average of 40%. This situation may improve with the accelerated pace of issuance in the future.
Data point 3: The slowdown of real estate is slowing down, and the policy combination may improve the expectation that the national real estate development investment will decline 9.8% year on year from January to April, the commencement of construction will continue to decline significantly, and the completion will maintain a growth rate of - 20%. In April, the growth rate of geotechnical engineering and construction area continued to improve. On the whole, the supply side continued to decline, the sales side volume and price remained low, and the promotion of future important keynote changes in residents' willingness to buy houses, from the statement at the Politburo meeting at the end of April, meant that the policy was from point to area, and the nationwide housing inventory was restored with optimistic confidence. The new "package" de stocking plan mentioned in May has formed a policy combination to continuously optimize market expectations. Adjust the lower limit of the down payment ratio of the first and second housing units from within the demand range, and reduce the housing provident fund loan interest rate; The supply side is dominated by the local government, which can purchase some commercial houses at reasonable prices as affordable housing. In terms of industry support and policy support and mitigation, we are ready to introduce policies and measures to properly dispose of idle land and revitalize existing land.
This real estate policy needs to pay attention to the rising effect on the property market after landing. Considering that the pressure of this round of real estate destocking is greater than that of the last round (month), the policy side needs more support, and the policy space will continue to increase in the future. In addition, as for the local government, the main body of affordable housing refinancing, whether the amount of funds invested can recover the difference between the return rate and the cost of funds still needs to be continuously concerned.
Data point 4: Consumption is subject to the base effect, and the consumption of necessities has grown steadily. The growth rate of total retail sales in April was 2.3%, significantly lower than the market expectation. From January to April, China's total consumption and retail sales increased rapidly year on year. When the growth rate of residents' income is low, the consumption pattern of residents has changed, and the growth rate of commodity consumption continues to be lower than that of catering income. By point, catering consumption was 4.4%, down 2.5 percentage points. Since this year, the consumption characteristics of residents have shown an upward trend in the consumption of necessities. The number of residents has decreased to zero, and more is the growth of small-scale catering. In addition, the consumption and entertainment mode has changed, and the entertainment activities have more autonomy. The impact of the high base of sports on the overall consumption growth is still continuing. The growth rate of automobile consumption is - 5.6%, and the growth rate continues to decline. After deducting the growth rate of automobile consumption, the growth rate is 0.9%. It can be seen that the recovery of consumer demand still needs to wait for the introduction of policies and the improvement of real estate. The new round of consumption stimulus policies may mainly involve the exchange of old for new of household appliances, automobiles, etc. In addition, residents' own consumption patterns continue to change, and tourism consumption has become the key point of the data. In April, the number of cities across the country decreased by 0.2 percentage points. The unemployment rate of the local registered population has continued to rise since the second half of 2023, but it has continued to slow down since 2024. As of April, the phenomenon of employment sinking this year has eased. With the policy gradually guiding the economy to new quality productivity
