Macro weekly report
Short term economic growth
5.13-19 In the week, the prosperity of upstream steel, building materials and coking industries continued to rise, and the sales of commercial housing recovered. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel plants across the country was 88.59%, up 0.90 percentage points from last week. The average daily molten iron output was 2.3695 million tons, an increase of 23800 tons from last week.
Short term inflation
In the first 19 days of May, the wholesale price of agricultural products continued to decline slowly. The average 200 index of wholesale price of agricultural products was 120.02, 1.57% lower than the average price in April, and the average 200 index of wholesale price of vegetable basket was 120.77, 1.78% lower than the average price in April.
Short term capital interest rate
Last week (5.13-17), Shanghai inter-bank SHIBOR overnight weighted average interest rate, 1-day, 7-day and 1-month interest rate hubs all fell slightly. On May 17, the inter-bank one-day pledge repo rate was 1.7519%, 0.0155 percentage points higher than that on May 11, and the five-day average rate was 1.7809%, 0.0238 percentage points lower than that of the previous week.
Important policies
On May 17, the State Council held a regular policy briefing to ensure the delivery of housing. The central bank plans to set up 300 billion yuan of affordable housing refinancing to support local state-owned enterprises to purchase commercial houses that have been built but not sold at a reasonable price; The Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development emphasizes the battle of ensuring the delivery of commercial housing projects; The Ministry of Natural Resources supports local governments to recover and purchase idle residential land for affordable housing construction at a reasonable price; The State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration mentioned that the "white list" projects of different ownership real estate enterprises are treated equally, and the loans should be exhausted.
On May 17, the People's Bank of China issued the Notice on Adjusting the Interest Rate Policy for Commercial Personal Housing Loans, which clearly abolished the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second homes at the national level; The Notice on Reducing the Interest Rate of Individual Housing Provident Fund Loan was issued, specifying that the interest rate of individual housing provident fund loan would be reduced by 0.25 percentage points from May 18, 2024; The Notice on the Policy of Adjusting the Minimum Down Payment Proportion of Personal Housing Loans was issued. For households who purchase commercial housing with loans, the minimum down payment proportion of commercial personal housing loans for the first housing was adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment proportion of commercial personal housing loans for the second housing was adjusted to not less than 25%.
Risk warning
1. Geopolitical changes beyond expectations; The Federal Reserve raised interest rates more than expected; 3. The downturn of the real estate market exceeded expectations.
