Macro data: the economy is stable and investment needs to be stable
Main points
The economy is stable and improving, and investment needs to be made steadily
In April, the main data except industrial production fell. The rebound of industrial growth, as a comprehensive reflection of economic performance, after a decline in March also shows the resilience of the overall operation of China's economy. However, the consumption data continues to decline due to the influence of the base number. From the average growth rate of two years, the actual performance is rising. We believe that the investment as the first growth engine of the economy mainly depends on the manufacturing industry and infrastructure construction. Both of these two projects showed a slight decline after the high growth at the beginning of the year this month, and we expect to continue to develop steadily in the future. Real estate investment is still weak, but some data have shown signs of improvement. The policy support for real estate has been continuously strengthened. Under the protection of policy combination, the work of ensuring the delivery of real estate has been continuously promoted, and real estate investment is expected to gradually stabilize. We believe that the trend of economic recovery and improvement still needs to be consolidated, and the policy should also be actively implemented through forward efforts.
The market is expected to stabilize and recover
We believe that the changes in the macro environment have laid the foundation for the smooth recovery of China's capital market. We believe that under the influence of policy incentives and economic resilience, China's economy will remain stable. With the gradual emergence of policy effects, the operation of China's economy and capital market may demonstrate a double warming pattern in 2024. We believe that the macro operation trend of "macro stability and micro improvement" in the future is conducive to the stability and recovery of the capital market.
Steady economic recovery will continue
After the economy achieved a good start in the first quarter, the performance of economic data in April was still stable. We believe that the trend of economic recovery in China will continue. The recovery of China's economy is not only the result of monetary or fiscal easing and macro adjustment policies, but also the result of the recovery of the endogenous growth momentum of the economy. The impact of the epidemic on the economy and social life will gradually fade away, and the long-term structural adjustment policy will release the accumulated demand for industrial investment, In addition to the short-term stimulus policy of consumption, the foundation for achieving the year beginning target of economic growth in 2024 is relatively stable. China's economic confidence is recovering. We believe that the loose monetary environment in China will not change, and interest rate or reserve ratio cuts can still be expected in the future.
Risk warning
Geopolitical events worsened, the international financial situation changed, and China's monetary policy changed more than expected.
