Macro daily: the market deduces the roller coaster market, and the follow-up trend of industrial products is still optimistic

Policy Summary

    Commodity futures: breeding (bean meal, pig), non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), precious metals purchase hedging; Stock index futures: purchase hedging.

    Core viewpoints

    Market analysis

    The government launched many arrows to stabilize the real estate market. In April, the domestic economic data was still weak, fixed asset investment and social retail sales were under pressure again, and the forward-looking financial data was also weak. In order to cope with the downward pressure on the economy, on May 17, the government increased its policy of stabilizing growth. On the one hand, it stimulated market demand, abolished the lower limit of housing loan interest rate policy, and lowered the interest rate and down payment ratio of provident fund loans. On the other hand, it promoted the exchange of old property for new property, set up 300 billion yuan of affordable housing loans, and purchased primary or second-hand housing through state-owned enterprises as affordable housing. The previously weak domestic expectation is expected to usher in a turning point. Pay attention to whether there will be more stable growth policies in the future to reverse the trend of internal and external differentiation.

    The impact of tariffs imposed by the United States is limited. On May 14, the United States released the results of the four-year review of the imposition of 301 tariffs on China, announcing that on the basis of the original 301 tariffs on China, it would further increase the imposition of tariffs on six categories of products imported from China. From the perspective of the proportion of China's exports to the United States in China's total exports of the above products, except for the trolley lithium batteries and solar cells, which accounted for 22%, the proportion of other commodities was very low, Therefore, the impact of this event is small. However, the follow-up focus is on vigilance. Other countries follow up the two major deterioration signals, namely, the imposition of tariffs on China, or the traceability of goods already levied (affecting entrepot).

    The follow-up trend of industrial products is still optimistic. On May 21, the overall commodity fluctuated significantly, driven by the fact that the impact of Iran's situation is still low, and we remain optimistic after adjustment. The real estate policy has boosted the black sector; The nonferrous commodities are rising again, and the commodities may usher in a new cycle, focusing on the verification of global May data; The geopolitical situation is long-term, but the marginal impact on prices is weak. Superimposed crude oil continues to accumulate. Pay attention to the risk that the travel demand in the United States is not strong in the peak season, corresponding to the energy and chemical shocks; Follow up attention will be paid to the possibility of inflation in soybean meal, pig and other breeding feed sectors of agricultural products. At present, the focus of soybean meal will turn to the sowing situation in the United States. At present, the United States has abundant rainfall, and the planting is relatively smooth. The weather signal from La Nina is still to be seen in the future; In terms of precious metals, based on the expectation of interest rate reduction and risk aversion, the trend continues to be positive.

    Risk

    Geopolitical risk (upside risk of energy sector); The global economy has declined more than expected (downside risk of risk assets); The Federal Reserve tightened more than expected (downside risk of risky assets); Overseas liquidity risk shock (risk asset downside risk).