research conclusion
The Oriental Macro Strategy Group is now launching a series of "macro accompanying readings". The topic focuses on social phenomena in the macroeconomic context. The content is based on the research results of domestic and foreign literature, aiming to understand the development and change of economic society from a subtle perspective. Issue 17 focuses on commuting in employment.
In April this year, Baidu Maps released the 2023 China Urban Traffic Report, which shows that the top five cities in terms of commuting time consumption in 2023 are Beijing (44.47 minutes), Shanghai (39.6 minutes), Nanjing (37.4 minutes), Tianjin (37.11 minutes) and Dalian (36.22 minutes); In terms of commuting distance, Beijing ranked first with 12.53km, followed by Chongqing (10.66km), Shanghai (10.56km), Chengdu (10.34km) and Changchun (10.29km); In terms of commuting peak traffic congestion index, Beijing ranked first, with a year-on-year growth of 20.13% in the congestion index of 2022. The actual speed of commuting peak was 24.26 km/h, and Chongqing ranked second, with a year-on-year growth of 11.46% in the congestion index; It is worth mentioning that some cities still have obvious cross city migration, and the top three cities are Guangzhou, Beijing and Shenzhen. All these phenomena mean that although large cities have brought more job opportunities and supporting services, "office workers" also have to face greater commuting pressure. Among them, the phenomenon of cross city commuting is directly related to the commuting integration in the Yangtze River Delta studied by Liu Jiangyun and Yang Yanan (2019), whose data source is the research based on mobile phone signals carried out by the relevant research team of Tongji University in Shanghai and 15 surrounding Yangtze River Delta cities in early 2018. The author found that as of the time of the research, The number of people from the Yangtze River Delta who come to work in Shanghai every day is about 50000, and the number of residents in Shanghai who commute out of the city is about 35000, of which more than 80% are Suzhou residents who go to work in Shanghai, followed by Jiaxing in Zhejiang. The relevant population is basically distributed along the Suzhou urban area to Suzhou Industrial Park, and then along the high-speed railway in the center of Shanghai.
The expansion of urban boundaries and the setting of functional zones have led to the separation of work and housing. There are a series of literature studies on commuting problems from the perspective of economics and sociology. For example, Xu Kesong, Luo Liang, and Li Hongqiao (2024) published the article "Always on the road: the dilemma and solution of extreme commuting of urban youth" in China Youth Research. They selected 30 urban youth in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Hebei, and Shandong to conduct a survey. They defined a one-way commuting time of more than 60 minutes as extreme commuting, and found that: (1) Even if they flee from megacities, young people still face the problem of increasing commuting time consumption. For example, the phenomenon of "floating in Chengdu" and "floating in Dongguan" has accelerated the transmission of extreme commuting "urban disease", and the proportion of extreme commuting in Jinan, Hefei, Urumqi and other big cities has risen for two consecutive years; (2) The average commuting space radius of "Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen" has a slow annual average growth rate, but the commuting space radius of Dalian, Foshan, Yinchuan, Xuzhou and other big cities has increased for three consecutive years. The commuting space radius of Wenzhou has increased by 2km year on year, ranking first with Chengdu in terms of the expansion speed of commuting space; (3) Rail commuting has gradually evolved into a multi line "relay"; (4) Strengthening the housing security system to promote the balance between work and housing, improving urban planning to create a functional mixed zone, and improving the transportation connection system to enhance public transport capacity are possible means to improve extreme commuting and pay attention to the physical and mental health of young people.
However, some studies have found that the relationship between commuting and population may not be too great, but the premise of this conclusion is dynamic analysis, that is, dynamic adjustment of enterprise location should be considered. Li Jiewei and Lu Ming (2018, The population will gather or move outward to the employment center, depending on such factors as infrastructure, housing conditions and income. Enterprises either choose to stay where they are, but pay higher wages for higher congestion costs and rents, or relocate to close to employees and consumers. The result of equilibrium is often the decentralization of population and employment. From this point of view, the author believes that good urban planning, improvement of urban spatial structure and improvement of transportation infrastructure can alleviate the commuter pressure, and these are happening, and the larger the city, the easier it is to achieve.
Risk warning
The risk that the conclusion of overseas literature does not conform to the actual situation in China;
There is a risk of deviation between the assumptions required by the cited academic research and econometric models and the reality.
