Core viewpoints
This week focuses on three aspects of policies: (1) Xi Jinping met with Russian President Putin, and the two countries issued a joint statement on the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era. Energy and economic and trade exchanges are one of the key directions of future China Russia cooperation. (2) The new real estate policy was released, and the central bank issued three policies, including the cancellation of the lower limit of commercial loan interest rates, and superimposed the comprehensive deployment of supply side policies, such as building guarantee and delivery, which is expected to activate the real estate market. (3) The Biden government of the United States announced the imposition of tariffs on US $18 billion of Chinese goods.
Summary
1. Xi Jinping Talks with Russian President Putin
Brief comment: On the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia, the two countries issued a joint statement on the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era. The 10000 word joint statement covers strengthening energy cooperation, expanding economic and trade exchanges, strengthening border cooperation, improving cooperation in innovation, industry and other fields, and safeguarding their own interests. Among them, cooperation in energy and economic and trade exchanges is one of the priorities of future cooperation between China and Russia. The joint statement said that the two sides agreed to carry out cooperation in oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, coal, electricity and other fields in accordance with market principles to ensure stable operation of relevant cross-border infrastructure and smooth energy transportation; We should jointly promote the implementation of large-scale energy projects by Chinese and Russian enterprises, and deepen cooperation in such promising fields as renewable energy, hydrogen energy and carbon markets. Specific policies related to China Russia cooperation are expected to be further introduced, and energy, foreign trade, industry, innovation and other fields are expected to benefit.
2. Release of new real estate policies
Brief comment: This is an in-depth and systematic policy adjustment, and the intention to activate the demand for housing purchase is obvious. For example, this reduction in the down payment ratio will be the lowest down payment ratio in history, which is not only the most relaxed policy in the history of mortgage loans, but also the most relaxed policy among various housing purchase policies in recent years. This new housing loan policy has a positive effect on lowering the threshold for house purchase, reducing the cost of house purchase and the pressure on loan repayment, which is conducive to releasing the demand for house purchase, clarifying market expectations and improving market vitality. This demand side stimulus policy is superimposed on the supply side policies such as implementing the real estate financing coordination mechanism and orderly promoting the work of ensuring delivery of buildings, which is expected to continue to improve the activity of the real estate market and build the underlying fundamentals.
3. The United States announced the imposition of tariffs on US $18 billion of Chinese goods
Brief comment: From the perspective of specific new categories and scope of tariffs, they can be roughly divided into three categories, namely, industries that "endanger the national security of the United States", industries in which China has asymmetric advantages, and industries that affect the well-being of American workers. This tariff increase is targeted and structural, and its impact on China is not as large as the previous total tariff. Due to factors such as entrepot trade and exemption period, non electric vehicle lithium battery, natural graphite, permanent magnet, new energy, photovoltaic and other categories can avoid short-term impact, but attention should be paid to the impact on the steel and aluminum industry, which is highly dependent on the United States. Biden risked intensifying friction between China and the United States, in fact, to win more support in the election year. In the follow-up, attention should be paid to the disturbance to the macro-economy and investment caused by the speeches and policies of major political figures in the United States in the election year.
