Comments on financial data in April 2024
1. In April, the broad fiscal deficit increased slightly year on year, and the fiscal expansion still needs to be stepped up. In April, the deficit of "general public budget+government funds" increased slightly compared with the same period last year (88.8 billion this year vs 75.9 billion last year), of which the general public budget recorded a surplus of 422 billion yuan, down from 2.33 trillion yuan in the same period last year; Government funds recorded a deficit of 131 billion yuan, narrowing from 309 billion yuan in April last year. Specifically, the year-on-year decrease of "general public budget+government funds" revenue in April widened slightly from 5% in March to 6%; While the year-on-year decline of broad fiscal expenditure narrowed slightly from 7.8% in March to 5.3%, which was 2.7% lower than the growth rate in January and February this year, and also weaker than the nominal GDP growth rate in the same period. Under the background of pressure on fiscal revenue, fiscal expenditure needs to be further strengthened, and the progress of special bond issuance still needs to be accelerated - the progress of local special bond issuance in January and April was about 23% of the annual new amount The progress was slower than that of the same period last year (51.4%), and also lagged behind the average level of 37.4% in 18-23 years. In addition, in March, financial deposits rose by 98.1 billion yuan month on month and fell by 195.2 billion yuan year on year. As a result, the year-on-year growth rate of financial deposits turned negative from 4% in March to 3.4%.
2. Income side: The year-on-year decrease of tax revenue in April narrowed, and the growth of government fund revenue is still under pressure. The year-on-year growth of general public budget revenue in April fell to - 3.7% from - 2.4% in March. According to the Ministry of Finance, after deducting the special factors such as the increase of the base number of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises' tax deferred warehousing in the same period last year, and some tax reduction policies, On a comparable basis, the year-on-year growth rate turned positive to 1.4%. In addition, the tax revenue in April fell 4.9% year on year, slightly narrowing compared with 7.7% in March, while the year-on-year growth of non tax revenue slowed to 5.8% from 12.2% in March. Among the sub items, the year-on-year growth rate of consumption tax, vehicle purchase tax and value-added tax in April recovered. Specifically:
The year-on-year growth rate of consumption tax/vehicle purchase tax in April rebounded from - 3.2%/- 22% in March to 2.1%/- 7%. Superimposed by the high base disturbance in April last year, the actual growth may be more obvious, reflecting the strong resilience of consumption of tobacco, alcohol, beverages, automobiles, etc. since this year.
The year-on-year growth rate of corporate income tax in April fell back to 0.7% compared with 7.3% in March, and the year-on-year decline of value-added tax revenue in a single month narrowed to 9.6% compared with 12.1% in March, which is still in a negative range, or reflects the negative impact of PPI on corporate profits. However, the individual income tax fell 18.8% year on year, down from the 75% high in March, mainly due to the base effect of the increase in income tax at the beginning of last year.
The year-on-year decrease of government fund income in April weakened to 18.2% compared with 15.9% in March, and the income still needs to be stabilized to restrict the expansion of expenditure; Among them, the year-on-year decrease of land transfer income widened from 18.7% in March to 21.2%, and the two-year compound decline narrowed from 16.8% in March to 8.9% in April after excluding the base effect, which shows that the real estate cycle is weak, the government fund income is still under pressure, and the year-on-year decrease of the five tax revenues related to real estate narrowed to 0.4% compared with 4.1% in March, or shows that the weak real estate cycle is "direct" to tax The influence converges. From the real estate sales data in April, the year-on-year decline in the area of new houses sold in 60 cities narrowed from 47% in March to 42.1%, and the year-on-year decline in the area of second-hand houses sold in 26 cities significantly improved from 33.5% in March to 10.2%, and the second-hand houses continued to increase in volume.
3. Expenditure: The year-on-year decline of broad fiscal expenditure in April narrowed, but still lower than the GDP growth. The year-on-year growth of general public budget expenditure in April turned positive, while the year-on-year decline of government fund expenditure, the overall fiscal expenditure strength still needs to be increased. The year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure in April rose to 6.1% from - 2.9% in March. In terms of classification, the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure related agriculture, forestry and water affairs and transportation sub items respectively rose from - 2.9%/- 13.5% in March to 11.8%/3.1% by more than 10 percentage points. The year-on-year growth rate of education, science and technology, energy conservation and environmental protection, and urban and rural affairs also increased from - 6%/- 15.9%/- 14.5%/0.4% in March to 4.9%/25.2%/16.6%/8.5%. However, the year-on-year decrease of government fund expenditure widened to 35.9% from 23.3% in March, partly due to the high base in the same period last year, and the two-year composite decline margin improved to 19% from 21.8% in March.
On the whole, the expansion of the broad fiscal deficit in April was relatively limited, and the further stabilization and recovery of domestic demand still needs to further increase the intensity of fiscal expenditure. In particular, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure is significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, which is a good observation indicator of effective fiscal expansion.
Looking ahead, if the issuance of special bonds is accelerated in May, the issuance of superimposed long-term construction bonds, and the rapid release of central bank re loans, it is expected to bring marginal support to the growth of fiscal expenditure. In April, the new social financing was transferred to a negative amount of -198.7 billion yuan, of which the net issuance of government bonds increased by 553.2 billion yuan on a year-on-year basis, dragging down the growth of social financing in April. At the same time, the medium and long-term loans of residents and enterprises decreased on a year-on-year basis, indicating that the financing demand of the real economy was weak and needed further fiscal efforts. We reiterate that given the current apparent deficit, it may be difficult to measure the possible constraints of slowing fiscal revenue growth on expenditure expansion. Therefore, the acceleration of fiscal expenditure growth, especially the growth of fiscal expenditure is significantly higher than nominal GDP, which is a good observation indicator of effective fiscal expansion. From January to April this year, the issuance of special bonds decreased by more than 1 trillion on a year-on-year basis. If the issuance of new special bonds is accelerated in May, it is expected to marginally boost the broad fiscal expenditure; At the same time, the Ministry of Finance announced that the super long term special treasury bonds will be issued on May 17 and will be issued by the middle of November, which is expected to "continue" the special treasury bonds issued in the first quarter of this year; In addition, on May 17, the real estate policy series "combination punch" was introduced. The policy of reducing the down payment ratio and the mortgage interest rate may help to increase the affordability of housing purchase and boost the marginal demand for real estate. The new margin of affordable housing refinancing will help to expand the base currency and stabilize the credit cycle.
Risk tip: The financial expansion is less than expected, and the real estate cycle continues to decline.
