Market performance this week: the steel plate fell 3.03% this week, which was worse than the overall market performance; Among them, the special steel plate fell 3.89%, the long material plate fell 3.35%, and the plate plate plate fell 2.50%; Iron ore plate fell 2.65%, steel consumables plate fell 4.12%, and trade circulation plate fell 3.374%.
The output of molten iron was basically flat month on month. As of May 24, the capacity utilization rate of the blast furnace of the sample steel enterprises was 88.5%, down 0.03 percentage points on a weekly basis. As of May 24, the utilization rate of electric furnace capacity of the sample steel enterprises was 57.5%, an increase of 3.23 percentage points on a weekly basis. As of May 24, the output of the five major steel varieties was 7.962 million tons, an increase of 66900 tons and 0.85% on a weekly basis. As of May 24, the average daily molten iron output was 236.8%, with a decrease of 900 tons on a weekly basis, 0.04% on a weekly basis, and 1.67% year-on-year.
The consumption of the five major materials fell month on month. As of May 24, the consumption of five major steel varieties was 9.502 million tons, down 108800 tons on a weekly basis, and down 1.13% on a weekly basis. As of May 24, the turnover of construction steel for mainstream traders was 139000 tons, an increase of 5400 tons on a weekly basis, and an increase of 4.07% on a weekly basis.
The overall inventory continued to decline. As of May 24, the social inventory of five major steel varieties was 12.896 million tons, down 438600 tons on a weekly basis, down 3.29% on a year-on-year basis, up 3.65%. As of May 24, the inventory of the five major steel varieties in the factory was 4.693 million tons, down 103200 tons week on week, down 2.15% week on week, down 5.68% year on year.
Steel prices rose month on month. As of May 24, the comprehensive index of Pugang had reached 4038.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.57 yuan/ton on a weekly basis, an increase of 0.81% on a weekly basis, or 3.04% on a year-on-year basis. As of May 24, the special steel composite index was 6951.4 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 9.57 yuan/ton, 0.14% increase, and 1.83% year-on-year decrease. As of May 24, the profit per ton of rebar blast furnace steel was -141.05 yuan/ton, an increase of 51.1 yuan/ton on a weekly basis, and a decrease of 26.59% on a weekly basis.
As of May 24, the profit per ton of rebar electric furnace was -228.34 yuan/ton, an increase of 55.3 yuan/ton on a weekly basis, and a decrease of 19.49% on a weekly basis.
The first round of coke lifting and landing. As of May 24, the spot price index of Australian fine ore in Rizhao Port (62% Fe) was 902 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.0 yuan/ton on a weekly basis, and an increase of 0.78% on a weekly basis. As of May 24, the price of the main coking coal depot in Jingtang Port has been increased by 2150 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 50.0 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 2.38%. As of May 24, the ex factory price of primary metallurgical coke was 2340 yuan/ton, down 110.0 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. As of May 24, the available days of coke inventory of the sample steel enterprises were 10.71 days, down 0.0 days on a weekly basis and 1.0 days on a year-on-year basis. As of May 24, the average available days of iron ore imported by the sample steel enterprises were 23.03 days, an increase of 0.7 days on a weekly basis and 4.2 days on a year-on-year basis. As of May 24, the available days of coking coal inventory in the sample independent coking plant were 10.91 days, an increase of 0.1 days on a weekly basis and 2.2 days on a year-on-year basis.
This week, hot metal Nissan was flat month on month, still lower than the same period in previous years. This week's demand recovery was blocked. The main varieties of steel continued to go out of stock. The chain ratio of the five major materials to the community warehouse was - 3.29%, and the chain ratio of the five major materials to the factory warehouse was - 2.15%. The speed of inventory reduction exceeded the market expectations, among which the speed of rebar (community warehouse - 5.17%, factory warehouse - 5.03%), wire rod (community warehouse - 2.86%, factory warehouse - 0.77%) and other building materials was significantly faster than other varieties. The price of raw materials continued to differentiate. The month on month ratio of iron ore was+0.78%. Affected by the first round of lifting and lowering, the weekly ratio of coke fell by 110 yuan/ton. It should be noted that this week, Li Chao, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission and press spokesman, said that the National Development and Reform Commission, based on the previous work, Sort out a batch of major projects that meet the requirements of "dual" construction and can be immediately released for investment. After the national debt funds are in place, the construction can be accelerated. We expect that, driven by a variety of measures, steel demand is expected to accelerate marginal improvement, superimpose the trend of inventory reduction, which is expected to support the level of molten iron to continue to rise, and short-term steel prices are expected to be more volatile.
Investment suggestions: Although the steel industry is facing problems such as prominent supply and demand contradictions at this stage, and the industry profits are declining as a whole, with the deepening of a series of "stable growth" policies, the total demand for steel is expected to remain stable or even slightly increase under the support of the real estate industry, infrastructure investment, sustainable development of the manufacturing industry, and high steel exports, On the other hand, the overall situation of supply and demand in the steel industry is expected to remain stable as the total supply of steel becomes tighter and the industrial concentration continues to become stronger under the expectation of the control policy. At the same time, under the macro trend of high-quality economic development and new quality productivity, especially high-end steel products with high barriers and high added value that benefit from energy cycle, domestic substitution and high-end equipment manufacturing are expected to benefit fully. On the whole, we believe that the industrial structure of the steel industry is expected to be stable and better in the future. In addition, some companies are already in undervalued areas. At this stage, there are still structural investment opportunities, especially the excellent and special steel enterprises with high gross profit rates and the leading steel enterprises with strong cost control and scale effects. There are opportunities for valuation repair in the future to maintain the industry's "optimistic" grade. It is suggested to pay attention to the following investment lines: first, Jiuli Special Materials, Changbao Shares and Wujin Stainless Steel, which are excellent and special steel enterprises that fully benefit from the new energy cycle; Second, CITIC Special Steel Co., Ltd. and Yongjin Co., Ltd., which benefit from high-end equipment manufacturing and domestic substitution; Third, Shougang Resources and Hegang Resources, a high barrier resource-based enterprise that distributes upstream resources and has outstanding cost advantages; Fourth, Valin Iron&Steel, Nanjing Iron&Steel and Baosteel, the leading steel enterprises with excellent asset quality and strong cost control; Fifth, Shandong Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., which benefited from the steady development of local regional economy and deepened enterprise reform, is expected to usher in a reversal of difficulties.
Risk factor: the property further stalls and declines. Significant innovation has taken place in iron and steel smelting technology. The high-quality development of the steel industry lags behind. Significant changes in supply side reform policies in the steel industry
