Topic 1: The silver price continues to rise, and the inflection point of HJT battery cost is approaching. The asset hedging attribute+supply and demand gap pushed up the silver price. It is expected that silver price will have a strong jump in 24 years. The demand for silver is diversified. In 2023, the demand for photovoltaic silver will account for about 30% of the total industrial silver. We predict that the total silver consumption demand of 2024E-2026E PV will be 5760/6600/7128 tons, respectively. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic field will rise, and the proportion of silver in industrial silver will increase year by year.
Silver clad copper+0BB helped HJT reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the rise of silver price promoted HJT's cost advantage to be more significant. The efficiency and yield of N-type batteries are continuously improving, and it is expected that the proportion of shipments in 24 years will exceed that of P-type batteries. The application of 0BB+silver clad copper in mass production promoted cost reduction and silver reduction of HJT batteries. HJT has better silver reduction effect after using 0BB technology. At the current silver price of 8000 yuan/kg, HJT can achieve the cost advantage of 0.03 yuan/w silver paste compared with TopCon. With the further catalytic rise of silver price, the cost difference is expected to further increase. We expect that 24Q3 or HJT mass production will break through the time node, and the penetration rate of new technologies is expected to rise rapidly. It is estimated that the production cost of HJT is expected to be the same as TOPCon within 24 years, and the economy of mass production of HJT is expected to be prominent. It is recommended that the leader of HJT equipment should be Aotewei with 0-1 scale of 0BB equipment, the cross-border manufacturer Liansheng Technology with strong technology and rapid progress, and Yubang New Materials, the leader of welding belt with rapidly rising share of 0BB new products. In the photovoltaic sector, we recommend Sungrow Power, Fulett, Foster, Tongwei, GCL Technology, CITIC Expo, and related targets such as Witten Electric, Yihua, and CSI.
Topic 2: In April, China's transformer exports continued to boom, with high growth in exports to the United States. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs and USA Trade Online, the total export volume in April 2024 is 3.57 billion yuan,+19.83%/+3.89% month on month, including 347 million yuan to the United States,+69.71%/+34.31% month on month; On the other hand, in Q1 of the 24th year, the import volume of US transformers reached US $1.70 billion,+47.40% year on year. Continue the trend of high growth. It is suggested to pay attention to the current domestic power equipment manufacturers that vigorously layout the overseas market and have certain advantages in brand, channel, capacity, etc., recommend Haixing Power, the leading export of Asian African Latin American ammeters, Igor, the fast and large-scale overseas export, Siyuan Electric, whose overseas orders have increased significantly since 23 years, as well as the related target Jinpan Technology, transformer tap changer leader Huaming Equipment. Other electric equipment are recommended, such as Dongfang Electronics, Ankeri, Sifang Co., Ltd., Guodian NARI, XJ Electric, Pinggao Electric, China XD, and related subject Zhengtai Electric and Wangbian Electric.
In April, the insured amount of domestic new energy vehicles increased significantly year on year, and the charging amount of national public charging piles increased month on month. According to the CIRC data, 617300 new energy passenger vehicles were insured in April,+44.2% year-on-year, - 3.1% month on month, 41.4% new energy penetration,+13.7 pct year-on-year, - 0.5 pct month on month. According to the charging alliance data, 68100 public charging posts were added in April,+2%/- 18% month on month; The charging capacity of the public charging post reached 3.94 billion kilowatt hours,+47%/+4% month on month. In the electric vehicle sector, we recommend Ningde Times, Kedali, Greebo, Zhuhai Guanyu, Xinwangda, Suntech, Zhongwei, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Longpan Technology.
From January to April 2024, the new installed capacity of wind power is 16.84GW, and the wind power industry has a strong installed capacity. According to the data of the National Energy Administration, from January to April 2023, the new installed capacity of wind power is 16.84GW, with a year-on-year growth of 18.6%.
Among them, the newly installed capacity in April was 1.39GW, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%; Recently, many key projects of Haifeng have successively invited bids and opened bids. It is expected that Haifeng is expected to usher in a turning point and continue to be optimistic about the growth of offshore wind power. Zhongtian Technology, Dongfang Cable, Tianshun Wind Energy, etc. are recommended.
Risk warning: policy risk, market competition intensification and supply chain shortage risk.
