Investment suggestions:
Liquor sector: With reference to dividend yield, we believe that the valuation of liquor leaders is supportive. Behind the steady growth trend of liquor leaders&the steadily rising dividend rate is the outstanding business model of liquor racing track, including the characteristics of addiction to consumption, strong psychological pricing attribute under face consumption, and the stability of the head brand pattern. The excellence of the business model can be seen from the appearance. The ROE, gross profit rate and net profit rate of the liquor sector have increased steadily in recent years. The average ROE, gross profit rate and net profit rate in 20-23 years are at the head of the secondary sub sector. Leading liquor enterprises have a certain ability to cross cycle.
The overall mood fell back in the week. The liquor sector is in the rhythm of weak reality, short-term low expectations, and medium - and long-term expected repair. We maintain our previous judgment on the pace of industry recovery, that is, the repair of business demand will be relatively ahead of the upgrading of public consumption. The current top-down medium - and long-term expected repair has not been transmitted to the channel to form a fundamental improvement, but the short-term expectations have bottomed out, Only wait for the improvement of subsequent channel fundamental expectation&price expectation.
We believe that the current liquor sector has both offensive and defensive configurations. We expect that the short-term Dragon Boat Festival dynamic sales will be consistent with the market's expectation of stability, and there is limited room for fluctuations in the wholesale prices of major products. We continue to recommend core targets with good momentum and high performance confidence in all tracks in the sector, such as high-end liquor, Fenjiu and other track leaders; Pay attention to the configuration value of flexible secondary high-end standard under the logic of pro cyclical reversal.
Popular products sector: From the perspective of historical dividend payout rate, the dividend payout rate of beer, food, milk and beverage and other sub sectors has gradually increased in 23 years. Many leading companies have sufficient book cash flow, while capital expenditure accounts for a low proportion of profits, so they have the objective conditions to continuously increase the dividend payout ratio. In combination with the historical dividend distribution, it is expected that the dividend payout rate for 24 years is expected to continue. The targets with a dividend rate of more than 3% are Chongqing Beer, Qiaqa Food, Ganyuan Food, Jinzai Food, Ziyan Food, Yuanzu Shares, Chengde Lulu, Yangyuan Beverage, Shuanghui Development, Yili Shares and Sanquan Food.
We divide the above companies into three categories: 1) The industry still has growth potential: for example, Chongqing Beer, the structural upgrading continues, and the income side is expected to maintain high single digit growth. 2) The industry tends to be saturated, and the market share of big single products is high. At present, the income growth has encountered a bottleneck, but there are still second curve points in the future: such as Qiaqia Food, Fuling Zhacai, Chengde Lulu, Sanquan Food. On the basis of the stable development of big single products, the company plans to develop the second curve. 3) The company's business model is relatively stable, with few growth highlights, but shareholders are willing to pay dividends. For example, Yangyuan Beverage (the dividend rate has exceeded 100% for three consecutive years), Yuanzu Shares (the annual stable dividend is 1 yuan/share), Shuanghui Development (the dividend rate has exceeded 90% in the past 10 years).
In combination with the above two aspects of dividend capacity and dividend willingness, we take certainty as the priority, and consider the fundamental improvement flexibility, recommend Yili Shares, Yangyuan drinks, and suggest focusing on Chongqing Beer, Chengde Lulu, Qiaqia Food, Shuanghui Development and other targets.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic recovery is not as expected, regional market competition risks, food safety problems risks.
