Industry view update:
Home furnishing: The domestic home furnishing sector has fluctuated greatly in the past two weeks, mainly because the real estate demand side policy is just coming out. Although the market's expectation of the industry's subsequent demand has improved, driving the short-term valuation repair of the sector, the current terminal demand is still under pressure. Considering the pace of terminal order receiving and the 24Q1 prepayment of home furnishing enterprises, Q2 The reporting end of each enterprise may show greater pressure, making the overall valuation repair market relatively weak. Continuing the previous view, the home furnishing industry is supported by the demand for natural renovation of second-hand housing, and the overall demand is resilient. There is no need to be too pessimistic about the medium-term demand, and the current increase in the share of leading enterprises is expected to relatively well hedge the downward pressure on the industry. Recently, the market of export household products has been adjusted, or the main reason is that although the overall prosperity of exports is still good, the landscape margin has not shown a further upward trend, and the recent sea freight has risen significantly, or has some impact on the Q2 profit side of some export enterprises. We believe that considering that American furniture is meeting the replenishment cycle, the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce platforms, and the expectation of subsequent interest rate cuts in the United States, H2 household exports are expected to remain relatively high in 24 years. Under this background, high-quality individual stocks can still be selected for layout. On the whole, in the household sector, we suggest to focus on: 1) leading domestic household enterprises with category integration capability and leading overall packaging channel layout; 2) Domestic household enterprises still have the logic of single category penetration improvement and channel expansion; 3) Export enterprises with high degree of integration of technology, industry and trade or branding and valuation cost performance ratio.
New tobacco: In terms of overseas market, China's electronic cigarette export volume in April increased by 3.6% year-on-year to 20468 tons, while the export amount decreased by 13.5% year-on-year to US $890 million, including US $330 million, up 6.9% year-on-year. On the whole, the export performance of electronic cigarettes is relatively weak. It is still necessary to observe the market acceptance and relevant policy guidance of "all in one" products in the future, and its development will, to some extent, affect the progress of sales recovery of cartridge changing atomized products.
In terms of the domestic market, the revenue of Fosmin Technology in its first quarter report grew by only 6.0% month on month. Considering the contribution of international business, the domestic sales revenue in 24Q1 has not improved significantly month on month. Although the overall sales of compliant products in the domestic market are relatively weak at present, in the context of stricter law enforcement and gradual optimization of taste, the sales of subsequent compliant products are still expected to show a quarterly recovery trend.
Light industry pet consumption: Baiya's free point released probiotic PRO+upgrade series, and 618 launched a domestic pet brand with beautiful performance. 1) Baiya launched the new product of "Free point probiotic pro+sanitary napkin" as an upgrade of probiotic series, and is optimistic that the company will achieve curve overtaking of second tier brands of domestic goods by virtue of continuous product upgrading - rapid growth of online e-commerce and accelerated offline peripheral expansion. 2) Pets: ① Domestic sales: According to Tmall's report on the first day of 618, the Fregat/Mafudi brand of Guaibao ranked third and seventh in the list of cat and dog brands. In the relatively long-term 618 activities, the head domestic brands strengthened the content refinement operation in new media channels such as Xiaohongshu/Tiaoyin to improve the brand potential. ② Export sales: The export volume of pet food in April was+14.6% year on year. The repair momentum in North America was better, Europe returned to normal, and ASP was stable.
Papermaking: maintain the judgment of high pulp price in the short term, and the paper price drops month on month in the off-season, so the short-term cost pressure still exists. According to Longzhong information, Suzano's quotation of eucalyptus pulp in the Asian market in June increased by+30 US dollars/ton. With the paper industry entering the slack season, the price of culture/white card paper shows a month on month callback trend. The culture paper enterprise recently issued a price increase letter to protect the price. The current price of culture double glue/white card/life paper per ton before tax is RMB - 200/- 300/+100 from the beginning of April, maintaining a strong judgment of pulp price in the short term, It is recommended that the leading paper enterprises with self supply capacity of pulp&wood chips, while focusing on high dividend of mature paper enterprises.
Going to sea: Recently, the State Council reviewed and passed the Opinions on Expanding Cross border E-commerce Exports and Promoting Overseas Warehouse Construction, actively focusing on the top overseas warehouse targets with high growth and continuous consolidation of cost advantages. Songge has several overseas warehouses with a storage area of 4.5 million square feet, and FedEx, UPS, Amazon shipping and other local logistics providers have deep cooperation. They are the top 100 Fedex customers in the world. Relying on the huge number of shipments accumulated, they can obtain better discounts for end of journey express delivery, help cross-border sellers obtain lower logistics costs, and maintain cost advantages. Recently, the company has added two new warehouses, Werner Warehouse in Germany and Chicago Warehouse in America and China, covering an area of 36/20 feet respectively.
Investment advice
Home Furnishing: Gujia Home Furnishing is recommended (the integrated sales of software+customized categories are accelerating, and the export market is booming), Senying Window Industry (the accelerated expansion of retail channels and the rapid growth of new categories are ushering in a period of accelerated development);
Paper making: Sun Paper is recommended (the leader of high-quality pulp and paper integration, the rise and landing of cultural paper in the peak season are smooth, and the forward-looking wood chip layout will gradually relieve the upstream resource constraints in the medium and long term)
Cross border outbound: recommend Lego Shares (the target of the cross-border e-commerce infrastructure industry chain, the release of overseas warehouse profit margin+the rapid growth of new warehouse launch, and the cross-border main business benefits from expanding the category to drive the customer list to increase), Zhiou Technology (the initial effect of brand building, and the continuous promotion of platform and category expansion).
risk factor
The speed of completion and recovery of the property is lower than expected; The price of raw materials rose significantly; New product promotion is not as expected; The exchange rate fluctuated significantly.
