Key investment points
Looking back at the market this week (May 21 to May 24), the nonferrous metal sector fell 3.70% this week, with a moderate increase in all primary industries. In terms of secondary industry, the new metal material sector of Shenwan nonferrous metals secondary industry fell 1.95%, the precious metals sector fell 2.15%, the industrial metals sector fell 3.66%, the small metals sector fell 4.56%, and the energy metals sector fell 4.64% during the week. In terms of industrial metals, the expectation of overseas interest rate cut has been significantly postponed. At present, the first interest rate cut in 24 years has been postponed to November, and the price of non-ferrous metals has fallen month on month. In terms of precious metals, due to the significant delay in interest rate cut expectations, the overall gold price fell back this week. It is expected that the short-term gold price will consolidate in the range of 2285-2350. Against the backdrop of the late interest rate cut in the United States, we believe that the overall upward trend of gold prices has not changed, and there is still action after short-term adjustment.
Zhou's opinion:
Copper: Peruvian copper mines will contribute new capacity by the end of 24. The hawkish minutes of the Federal Reserve hit the expectation of interest rate reduction, and copper prices at home and abroad fell sharply. As of May 24, Luntong closed at 10334 dollars/ton, down 3.56% on a week on week basis; Shanghai Copper closed at 84050 yuan/ton, down 0.24% on a week on week basis. On the supply side, as of May 24, the average TC price of imported copper ores this week was 1.5 dollars/ton; The new mine of Peru's Las Bambas large-scale copper mine project is expected to start mining operations before the end of this year, which will bring some additional supply to the increasingly tense copper market. In addition, Peruvian President Boluaert said that the goal of 2024 is to produce more than 3 million tons of copper; In terms of demand, the copper price hit a record high on Monday. At present, the downstream has a low acceptance of the price. The performance of superimposed orders is low, the demand for raw materials is reduced, and the market transaction is very cold. Most enterprises are forced to reduce production. At the beginning of this week, due to the impact of capital pressure, copper prices hit a record high. On Wednesday, the hawkish minutes of the Federal Reserve significantly postponed the expectation of interest rate reduction. Superimposed on the factors of long profit taking, copper prices fell sharply in the second half of this week, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile.
Aluminum: The price of aluminum oxide was consolidated at a high level, and the price of aluminum at home and abroad rose and fell. As of May 24, LME aluminum closed at 2658 dollars/ton this week, up 1.41% from last week; Shanghai Aluminium closed at 20855 yuan/ton, down 0.67% from last week. On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan continued to release production capacity this week, with an operating capacity of 42.916 million tons, an increase of 65000 tons over last week, and electrolytic aluminum supply increased this week. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum bar increased by 0.74% month on month this week, and the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil was flat month on month. The theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum increased. At the beginning of this week, affected by the news that domestic bauxite was slowly resumed and Rio Tinto's shipment at the Australian alumina plant was blocked, the price of alumina rose sharply, followed by the rise of aluminum prices at home and abroad. In the second half of this week, affected by the hawkish minutes of the Federal Reserve, the high price of aluminum fell back. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and it is necessary to further observe the recovery of the economy in the long term.
Gold: The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released hawkish signals, and gold at home and abroad fell sharply. Gold prices at home and abroad fell month on month this week. As of May 24, COMEX gold closed at 2330.60 dollars/ounce, down 2.11% on a week on week basis; SHFE gold closed at 554.48 yuan/g, down 1.84% on a week on week basis. This week, the initial PMI of SPGI manufacturing in the euro area in May was 47.4%, higher than the expected 46.2%; The initial PMI of SPGI manufacturing industry in the United States in May recorded 5.09%, higher than the expected 50%; In May, the initial PMI of the SPGI service industry in the United States recorded 54.8%, higher than the expected 51.3%, a new high in 12 months; The initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in April recorded a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, higher than the expected - 0.8%.
This week's economic data showed that the US economic data did not weaken, and the expectation of interest rate cut was significantly postponed. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting released this week showed the hawkish view that officials believe that the federal funds rate needs to be kept at the current level for a longer time to achieve the inflation reduction target. Some officials expressed their willingness to further increase interest rates once inflation resumed. According to the interest rate observation tool of the Stock Exchange, the first interest rate cut in the previous 24 years was postponed to November, which was affected by the sharp delay in interest rate reduction expectations, The overall gold price fell back this week. It is expected that the short-term gold price will be consolidated in the range of 2285-2350. Against the backdrop of the late interest rate cut in the United States, we believe that the overall upward trend of gold price has not changed, and there is still action after short-term adjustment.
Risk warning: the US dollar continues to strengthen; Downstream demand is less than expected.
