Market Overview&Investment Suggestions
This week (5.20-5.24), the CSI 300 index dropped 2.42%, of which the nonferrous metal index dropped 7.16%. At the individual stock level, Bowei Alloy and Yuean New Material rose significantly this week, up 6.41% and 1.67% respectively; Zhangyuan Tungsten and Dongfang Zirconium fell significantly, down 12.63% and 11.32% respectively.
Rare earth: praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices this week were 381200 yuan/ton, down 4.85% month on month. Dysprosium oxide cost 2 million yuan/ton this week, down 3.85% month on month; The price of terbium oxide this week was 6.37 million yuan/ton, down 3.04% month on month; The price of cerium oxide this week was 7300 yuan/ton, unchanged month on month; The price of lanthanum oxide this week was 4000 yuan/ton, unchanged month on month. This week, the market atmosphere is cold and quiet, the enthusiasm of inquiry is poor, and the actual receipt of goods is less; The upstream manufacturer's shipment is stable, and the price has experienced a correction. From January to April, the import of rare earth converted into praseodymium and neodymium oxide dropped by 3% on a year-on-year basis, a larger decline than that in March, and the import weakness continued to materialize; Among them, the imports of US mines and Myanmar mines in April, converted into praseodymium and neodymium, were - 27% and flat year-on-year respectively. Since the issuance of the Action Plan for Promoting Large scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Swap for New in March, many provinces and cities have launched unique "customized" programs; considering the continuous implementation of "equipment renewal" and "old for new" policy support, rare earth magnetic materials, as a better choice for new energy vehicles and industrial equipment motors, are expected to continue to benefit from manufacturing upgrading and upgrading. As the current price is still low, the supply reduction of recovery and monazite production enterprises is expected to continue, and the import will also weaken as scheduled; Considering the slowdown of domestic quota growth, the relay release of demand for new energy vehicles superimposed robots and industrial motors, the "old for new" policy is expected to bring both stock and incremental demand, and the price hub of rare earth is expected to gradually rise. The resource side suggests paying attention to the northern rare earth (the leader of light rare earth).
Antimony: The price of antimony ingots this week was 138400 yuan/ton, up 14.48% month on month; The price of antimony concentrate was 107100 yuan/ton, up 11.45% month on month. This week's antimony ingot inventory was 3320 tons, up 0.61% month on month; Antimony oxide inventory was 5910 tons, unchanged month on month. The operating rates of antimony concentrate, antimony ingot and antimony oxide this week are -0.32 pct/+1.22 pct/+0.44 pct month on month respectively. This week, the supply of raw materials is still tight, and the price is rising rapidly just after the purchase; This week, overseas antimony prices rose 5.71% month on week to US $18500/ton, catalyzing the further rise of domestic prices. At present, the antimony ingot inventory is at a historical low level, and the antimony oxide inventory has accelerated from a relatively high position at the beginning of the year to a historical low level. We believe that the shortage of raw materials is gradually transmitting to the downstream, the operating rate of antimony ingot and antimony oxide continues to decline, and the supply of industrial chain will further shrink; From January to April, the output of photovoltaic glass increased by 56% year on year, while the output of antimony concentrate decreased by 6% year on year. With the relatively stable demand for flame retardants, the mismatch between supply and demand further intensified. According to our estimation, the year-on-year growth rates of the actual consumption and terminal consumption of domestic antimony from January to April were 2% and 23% respectively, and the terminal consumption was stronger than the actual consumption, indicating that the recessive inventory was accelerated. The demand is strong, the capacity cycle drives the shortage of raw materials and the environmental protection supervision and production restriction. We believe that the price rise is not over, and it is expected to continue to create a new record high. The expectation of supply tightening of overseas antimony mines in the medium and long term has been strengthened. There are few incremental projects under domestic policy restrictions and frequent supply disturbances. Photovoltaic demand is expected to continue to boom. The supply and demand pattern of antimony is expected to be good, and the antimony price center is expected to continue to rise when the inventory remains low. It is suggested to focus on the subject with greater flexibility: Hunan gold.
Molybdenum: The price of molybdenum concentrate this week was 3880 yuan/ton, up 4.02% month on month; The price of ferromolybdenum this week was 24800 yuan/ton, up 4.20% month on month. Molybdenum concentrate inventory this week was 8410 tons, down 1.06% month on month; The inventory of ferromolybdenum this week was 5130 tons, down 0.19% month on month. This week, the volume and price of steel bidding increased gradually and the spot resources on the market were limited. The confidence of the industry was strengthened and the price focus was raised. Zijin Mining lowered the 2025 molybdenum mine output guidance, and the medium and long-term increment may not be as expected. With the high increase of investment in oil and gas, thermal power and chemical industry, the prosperity of shipbuilding and steel structure continues, the overseas ore volume slows down, and there is still great uncertainty about the timing of domestic large ore delivery. The supply and demand of molybdenum are tight in the medium and long term, and the molybdenum price center is expected to continue to rise. Rare resource targets with high profit share are expected to benefit fully, and it is suggested to focus on Jinmo.
Tin: The price of tin ingots this week was 273200 yuan/ton, down 0.42% month on month; The inventory of tin ingots this week was 17818 tons, up 2.56% month on month. The macro mood of this week is optimistic, but the raw materials in the factory are relatively sufficient, and the price shows a trend of first rising and then declining. In the medium and long term, the overseas geopolitical disturbance continues and Indonesia's tin mine is worried about tight supply. The demand side is expected to benefit from the recovery of consumer electronics and the old for new action, and the tin supply and demand pattern will improve in the long term. It is suggested to pay attention to tin industry shares.
Tungsten: the price of tungsten concentrate this week was 156600 yuan/ton, up 1.63% month on month; The price of ammonium paratungstate this week was 231700 yuan/ton, up 1.74% month on month. The inventory of tungsten concentrate this week was 460 tons, up 4.55% month on month; The inventory of ammonium paratungstate this week was 235 tons, down 7.84% month on month. This week, the mine output continued to be low, the shortage of raw materials intensified, and the price rose. It is suggested to pay attention to China Tungsten High tech Co., Ltd.
Other small metals: the price of vanadium pentoxide this week was 84500 yuan/ton, up 5.62% month on month; The price of germanium metal this week was 9850 yuan/kg, unchanged month on month.
Risk warning
Supply is less than expected; The prosperity of new energy industry is less than expected; Macroeconomic fluctuations.
