Investment logic
According to the statistics of CoinMarketCap, by May 24, 2024, the total market value of global cryptocurrencies will reach $2.55 trillion, up from last weekend; Among them, Bitcoin's market value accounted for 52.67% and Ethereum's market value accounted for 17.74%. The price of Bitcoin was 68500 dollars/piece, up or down 2.2% on the 7th day; The price of Ethereum was 3700 dollars/piece, and the price rose or fell 20.45% on the 7th day. By May 24, 2024, the holding cost of short-term investors will be 61500 dollars/bitcoin, and that of long-term investors will be 20900 dollars/bitcoin. The current currency price is higher than the holding cost of long-term and short-term investors.
At the transaction level, according to the statistics of CoinMarketCap, since the beginning of the year, the total transaction volume of cryptocurrency has reached 12.61 trillion US dollars, up 85.6% year on year. According to the statistics of CoinCarp, the total transaction volume of Coinbase from May 18 to May 24, 2024 is 20.603 billion dollars, an increase of 55.6% month on month. From the beginning of the year to May 24, the total turnover of Coinbase was $449.397 billion, up 127.4% year on year. According to Coinglass statistics, by May 25, 2024, the position of BTC contracts reached 66.836 billion dollars, up from last weekend.
In terms of external liquidity, in March 2024, the M2 of the China US Japan European Central Bank fell by 0.5% year on year, and the growth rate fell by 1.93 pct month on month. There was no significant release of external liquidity. According to wind data, by May 24, 2024, the dollar index will be 104.75, up from last weekend; The yield of 10-year US Treasuries was 4.46%, up from last weekend. In terms of stable currency, according to the statistics of CoinMarketCap, by May 24, 2024, the market value of USDT+USDC+DAI stable currency will reach USD 149.986 billion, slightly lower than that at the end of last week.
By May 24, 2024, the spot ETF of Bitcoin in the United States had a total net inflow of 13.6 billion dollars, up from the previous week. From May 18 to 24, spot bitcoin ETF inflows accounted for 0.81% of the total bitcoin turnover, up from last week.
In terms of mining costs, according to OKLink's statistics, from May 18 to May 24 this year, the average computing power of BTC's entire network was 599.91EH/s, an increase of 2.34% over the previous week's link ratio; The average difficulty of BTC mining is 83.5, up from last week. According to Glassnode statistics, by May 24, 2024, the balance of miners' wallets will be 1803400 bitcoins, slightly lower than last weekend. The current balance of miners' wallets is close to the bull market level in 2021.
This week, Trump's presidential campaign officially accepted Bitcoin and cryptocurrency donations, and Biden's campaign team may also accept them. The US House of Representatives passed the FIT21 encryption bill. The trading volume of Korean cryptocurrency sometimes exceeds that of the stock market, and SHIB exceeds that of Samsung Electronics. The Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission of China negotiated to allow the issuer of Ethereum ETF to pledge. The approval of US spot Ethereum ETF may raise the expectation that SOL is regarded as a commodity. The US House of Representatives has passed a bill prohibiting the Federal Reserve from creating a central bank digital currency. The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved Form 19B-4 of spot Ethereum ETF, and the official trading time is to be determined.
Investment advice
At present, Bitcoin is in the fourth cycle, and we judge that it is still in the early stage of this market round. We continue to recommend Coinbase and suggest that we focus on MicroStrategy. In April 2024, the continuous upward trend of the previous seven months was stopped, and Bitcoin was adjusted downward by 15%, releasing some risks. We judge that the recovery of the currency price needs to wait for the improvement of the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate reduction or the continuous improvement of institutional participation, and maintain the medium - and long-term optimism.
Risk warning
Cryptocurrency industry compliance risk; The risk of sharp fluctuations in the US federal funds interest rate; Network security risk.
