Event description
Xiamen Xiangyu disclosed the first quarter report of 2024: in the first quarter of 2024, the company realized a revenue of 104.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 410 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.4%.
Event comments
The demand margin improved and the revenue increased month on month. In 2024Q1, domestic effective demand is insufficient and social expectations are weak. PPI is in a downward range year on year. Nanhua's metal/energy and chemical/agricultural product indexes are+1.0%/+3.4%/- 4.2% year on year and - 0.2%/- 0.9%/- 4.0% month on month respectively. In 2024Q1, the company's revenue decreased by 19.0% year on year under a high base, but benefited from the slow replenishment of inventory and the improvement of the industry's demand margin, the company's goods volume increased slightly year on year, and its revenue increased by 15.7% month on month.
The performance stabilized and improved, and the profit inflection point rose. In 2024Q1, the company's four expenses decreased by 3.5% year on year, with good cost control; Net profit attributable to the parent company reached 410 million yuan, down 25.4% year on year and up 3.8% month on month. The performance improved month on month, mainly due to the improvement of downstream demand margin, and the company's business operation remained stable. In 2024Q1, as the company's bulk commodity business accelerated capital withdrawal, and the agricultural product supply chain adjusted the pace of purchase and sales, the net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 14.45 billion yuan year-on-year.
Accelerate international expansion and open a new growth curve. In 2023, the company will promote the construction of overseas platforms, accelerate the international layout, and achieve a total import and export volume of about 19.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 16% year on year; The total import volume was about 17 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of more than 30%. The company has made breakthroughs in the international business of aluminum, agricultural products, coking coal, oil products, new energy and other categories. At the same time, a new SMX owned ship was added in Indonesia. The business volume of Indonesian domestic trade marine barges increased by more than 80% year on year, and the business volume of China Indonesia and its extended routes increased by more than 200% year on year; The traffic volume of China Vietnam and China Thailand routes increased by 7.5% year on year; The international dry bulk cargo channel reached thousands of ports, and the number of operating voyages increased by 6 times on a year-on-year basis; The number of inbound and outbound containers of China Europe Central Asia Express increased by 60% year on year.
The bottom of the boom was repaired and the business was stable and good. In 2023, the effective demand of the industry will be insufficient, and some overcapacity will be superimposed. The price fluctuation of bulk commodities will decline, and the profitability of the company's supply chain will decline significantly. However, with the advantages of resources, services and risk control, the market share will grow against the trend, and the volume of goods operated will increase steadily. In 2024, the company will adhere to the steady development idea, actively adjust the agricultural product business strategy, accelerate the expansion of internationalization, and the operation is expected to improve. At the same time, the company maintains a good dividend policy, and the current stock price corresponds to a dividend yield of 4.1%, which is attractive. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024-2026 will be 18.1/2.29/2.73 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 9.2/7.3/6.1X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning
1. Large fluctuations in commodity prices;
2. Operational risk of supply chain business;
3. Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
