Key investment points
Market performance
As of May 24, 2024, the chemical fiber index had closed at 3888.24 points, with a rise or fall of -4.49% this week, a rise or fall of -3.76% in the basic chemical industry index, and a rise or fall of -2.08% in the CSI 300 index.
Price difference: major mainstream manufacturers raised their prices, while polyester price difference rose widely. According to CCF Huarui information, major mainstream polyester filament manufacturers gradually raised their prices this week to ensure a certain processing profit. According to Wind, as of May 24, 2024, the POY price will reach 7700.00 yuan/ton,+4.05% month on week, and the POY-PX/MEG price difference will reach 1339.97 yuan/ton,+19.48% month on week; FDY price reached 8100.00 yuan/ton,+0.93% month on week, FDY-PX/MEG price difference reached 1693.95 yuan/ton,+1.16% month on week; DTY price reached 9000.00 yuan/ton, no increase or decrease compared with last week. DTY-PX/MEG price difference reached 2490.41 yuan/ton, -1.85% compared with last week.
Supply side: effective de stocking of polyester filament
In terms of operating rate, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the operating rate of polyester filament reached 85.80% this week, 0.57 percentage points lower than the previous month; The operating rate of polyester staple fiber reached 83.10%, up 7.91 percentage points month on month.
In terms of inventory, according to CCF Huarui Information, as of May 24, 2024, the POY inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has reached 18.20 days, -10.10 days month on month; FDY inventory reached 17.70 days, -4.80 days month on month; The inventory of DTY reached 27.70 days, which was -2.80 days from last week.
Demand side: in terms of the apparent consumption of polyester filament in April and the month on month growth, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the apparent consumption of polyester filament from January to April 2024 will reach 11.095 million tons,+44.39% year-on-year; Among them, in April 2024, the apparent consumption of polyester filament reached 2.9641 million tons,+28.92% year-on-year and+0.16% month on month.
In terms of weaving, printing and dyeing, according to Wind, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang reached 71.78% this week, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from last week. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the printing and dyeing operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang reached 78.05% this week, down 1.67 percentage points month on month.
In terms of order inventory, according to Baichuan Yingfu, as of May 23, 2024, the number of domestic weaving orders reached 13.04 days, -0.48 days month on month; The raw material inventory of domestic weaving enterprises reached 10.56 days,+0.86 days month on week; Domestic inventory of finished weaving products reached 23.43 days,+1.06 days month on month.
Raw material end: PX price rises month on month
In terms of PX, according to Wind, as of May 24, 2024, the price of PX will reach 8211.00 yuan/ton,+1.28% month on month; The domestic PX operating rate reached 74.06% this week, 5.73 percentage points lower than last week.
In terms of PTA, according to Wind, as of May 24, 2024, the price of PTA will reach 5890.00 yuan/ton,+0.51% month on month; The domestic PTA operating rate reached 72.06% this week, an increase of 2.11 percentage points month on month.
In terms of ethylene glycol, according to Wind, as of May 24, 2024, the price of ethylene glycol reached 4460.00 yuan/ton, -0.22% month on week. The operating rate of ethylene glycol (ethylene method) was 53.64%, 0.14 percentage points lower than last week; The operating rate of ethylene glycol (non ethylene method) was 55.38%, 1.40 percentage points lower than last week.
Investment advice
On the demand side, domestic demand is better and overseas stock is removed, and polyester filament demand is expected to improve; On the supply side, the industry concentration continues to increase, and the pace of subsequent expansion is expected to slow down. We are optimistic about the prosperity of polyester filament industry. It is suggested to focus on Tongkun Shares, Xinfengming, etc.
Risk warning
The risk of substantial fluctuations in raw material prices, the risk that downstream demand is less than expected, the risk of intensified industrial competition, the risk of changes in environmental protection policies, and the risk of changes in industrial policies.
