Market review: This week (May 20 May 26), the robot index lost the market. The CSI Robot Index fell 4.3%, about 2.2 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 Index and 1.8 percentage points lower than the GEM Index; The CSI Robot Index fell 4.2%, about 2.1 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 Index and 1.7 percentage points lower than the GEM Index.
Tesla is expected to hold the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting on June 13 and release new progress of Optimus.
Optimus, a humanoid robot, appeared many times in the trailer of the shareholders' meeting. Musk had previously published the text "Optimus will be amazing" on Twitter, and it is expected to release new progress of Optimus at the shareholders' meeting.
Hamanako estimates that the revenue of humanoid robots will account for 10% and reach about 150 million yuan in the fiscal year 2025. On May 20, Hamanako's annual report performance explanation meeting for fiscal year 2024 described the humanoid robot as follows: 1) The sales in fiscal year 2024 include the humanoid robot reducer, which is expected to account for about 10% of the sales in fiscal year 2025 (corresponding to 3.4 billion yen, or 150 million yuan); 2) There are more than 10 humanoid robot manufacturers, and the company and 3-4 humanoid robot manufacturers have made inquiries or are in the stage of sample trial production; 3) Compared with industrial robots (six reducers are generally used), the demand of humanoid robots for reducers has doubled: ① the arms are generally six axes, and the number of reducers corresponding to two arms has doubled; ② The dexterous hand has three fingers/five fingers/seven fingers, and the number of corresponding joints is several times that of the arm. At present, there is no competitor for the small harmonic reducer company; 4) According to the humanoid customers contacted by the company, the scene of using humanoid robots obviously exists, at least two arm robots are quite realistic. It is expected that the number of humanoid robots in the fiscal year 2025 is expected to exceed 10000: ① Hamanako's humanoid robot reducer revenue in the fiscal year 2024 is less than 100 million yen, the number of humanoid robots is about 500, and the number of humanoid robots in the fiscal year 2025 is about 15-200 in terms of the sales target of 3.4 billion yen. ② If the unit price is 1000 yuan, a single robot body uses 12 harmonic reducers (not considering dexterous hands), which corresponds to about 13000 robots. If dexterous hands are considered, a humanoid robot uses about 30 harmonic reducers, which corresponds to about 5000 humanoid robots. The above two ways show that the number of humanoid robots is expected to exceed 10000 in the fiscal year 2025. In addition, the company once again stressed the feasibility of the smart hand application of harmonic solutions.
Chery car layout humanoid robot field. Chery Automobile presented Mornine, a humanoid robot, at the CEO meeting, which was jointly developed by Chery and Aimoga, an artificial intelligence company. Mornine uses a human like silicone face, which can provide realistic visual effects and touch. Chery's plan for humanoid robots is divided into three stages: 1) mainly serving as service personnel in the automobile market; 2) Perfect the action richness of humanoid robots and improve their walking and mobile navigation capabilities; 3) Start from the scene and provide multiple services in the home care scene.
Shadow Robot develops a new three fingered hand. UK Shadow Robot released a new three fingered dexterous hand, the customer is Google DeepMind. The three fingered dexterous hand weighs 9 pounds (4.1 kg), 2.6 pounds (1.2 kg) per finger; The three fingered dexterous hand can be opened to closed within 500 milliseconds, and 10N kneading with fingertips; It can resist external impact, and can still work normally after being hit by a small hammer; The hand is equipped with sensors, and each finger tip has hundreds of tactile pixels.
Financing trends: 1) Zhiyu Medical has completed the Pre-A++round of financing, with a total financing capital of more than 60 million yuan, which will be mainly used for the clinical trials of the core product of Zhiyu Medical MetaFlow high-energy water jet autonomous surgical robot (water scalpel surgical robot), as well as the new product pipeline research and release bureau. 2) Elephant Robot completed the Pre-B round of financing, and this round of financing funds will be used for the upgrading of humanoid robot production line and continuous R&D iteration.
Key investment points: core links of humanoid robot hardware end: 1) lead screw and equipment, including Wuzhou Xinchun (603667), Best (300580), Beite Technology (603009), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Qinchuan Machine Tool (000837), Dingzhi Technology (873593), Rifa Precision Machine (002520), Zhejiang Heideman (688577), Huachen Equipment (300809); 2) Reducer, including green harmonic (688017), double ring drive (002472), Zhongdalide (002896); 3) Sensors, including Hanwei Technology (300007), Donghua Test (300354) and Keli Sensor (603662); 4) Motor, including Mingzhi Electric (603728), Weichuang Electric (688698), Buke Co., Ltd. (688160), Hechuan Technology (688320); 5) Actuator assembly: Tuopu Group (601689), Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050); 6) Robot body, including Boshi (002698) and Youbixuan (9880).
Risk tip: the risk that the downstream demand of industrial robots is less than expected; The robot company's production expansion is not as expected; The development of humanoid robots is less than expected.
