Key investment points
National Energy Administration: the photovoltaic increased by 14.37GW in April, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. On May 23, the National Energy Administration released the statistics of the national power industry from January to April. From January to April 2024, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity will be 60.11GW, up 24% year on year. According to the data from January to March previously released, the PV in April increased by 14.37GW, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%.
Symposium: Deepening the reform of power system: May 23, Jinan, Shandong. General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the symposium of enterprises and experts and delivered an important speech. At the symposium, representatives of enterprises and experts put forward suggestions on deepening the reform of the power system, upgrading traditional industries with science and technology, optimizing the business environment of foreign-funded enterprises, and promoting the integrated development of urban and rural areas. These suggestions focus on the problems that need to be solved with reform.
National Energy Administration: focus on supervising the supporting industry of new energy projects and the implementation of compulsory investment: On May 23, the National Energy Administration issued a document, deciding to carry out comprehensive supervision in the field of power in Heilongjiang Province, Anhui Province, Shandong Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Sichuan Province, and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. It mentioned the key supervision: the new energy projects organized and implemented since 2023 have improper market intervention in the whole process of signing the development intent agreement, preparing the project investment allocation plan, organizing and implementing project allocation, and project development and construction, mainly including requiring supporting industries, mandatory investment landing and other behaviors.
National Energy Administration: Fully promote the construction of three batches of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases: Recently, the National Energy Administration held a national video conference on renewable energy development and construction scheduling. The meeting required that we should fully promote the construction of three batches of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases, continue to do a good job in monthly scheduling and weekly monitoring, and promote the completion of the base project as soon as possible and the production on schedule. Give full play to the decisive role of the market in allocating resources. Local governments should strengthen industry guidance and guide the orderly development of new energy projects; All development enterprises should compete orderly and develop projects in strict accordance with laws and regulations.
Price tracking
Polysilicon price: According to InfoLink data, the average price of dense materials this week was 41 yuan/kg, down 2.4% from last week; The average price of granular silicon was 37 yuan/kg, down 5.1% from last week. Two N-type and P-type rod silicon enterprises have clinched deals this time. The newly increased turnover is relatively limited, and most of them are based on the execution of early orders. Due to the depressed downstream purchasing mood, the inventory pressure on the silicon material end continues to increase. At present, more than half of the leading enterprises have maintenance plans. Under the condition of continuous loss of cash costs, it is expected that the price of silicon material will approach the bottom, the supply will be further reduced after the implementation of large-scale maintenance, and the mainstream transaction price of silicon material is expected to stabilize.
Silicon chip price: According to InfoLink data, the average price of 182mm single crystal silicon chip of 150um this week was 1.25 yuan/chip, down 10.7% from last week; The average price of 130um 182N silicon chip is 1.10 yuan/piece, down 12.0% from last week. In terms of supply, the silicon wafer production schedule is expected to drop to 60-61GW in May, and the overall silicon wafer link is in the state of de stocking. The integrated enterprise adopts silicon material OEM, dual distribution, direct purchase and other modes of operation. At present, the turnover stock of silicon chips has a downward trend, and it will still maintain the expectation of destocking in June. Under the current price level of cash loss, it is expected that the subsequent decline will gradually slow down.
Battery chip price: According to InfoLink data, the average price of M10 battery chip (conversion efficiency 23.1%) this week was 0.31 yuan/W, down 3.1% from last week; The average price of 210mm battery chip (conversion efficiency 23.1%) was 0.32 yuan/W, down 5.9% from last week; The average price of 182mm TOPCon battery chip is 0.31 yuan/W, down 8.8% from last week, which is the same as the price of the same size PERC battery chip. In May, the battery output was about 62GW.
As the price of N-type silicon chips has fallen sharply, the decline of N-type batteries has increased, and there is no price difference for 182mmN/P batteries. Large component manufacturers continue to reduce the price through the cooperation of dual distribution and OEM, and it is expected that the short-term battery price may fall further.
Component price: According to InfoLink data, the average price of 182mm double-sided PERC components this week was 0.83 yuan/W, down 2.4% from last week; The price of 182TOPCon double glass module was 0.89 yuan/W, down 1.1% from last week. This week, the operating rates of integrated enterprises were maintained at 60% - 80%, and the operating rates of other enterprises were maintained at 50% - 70%. At present, centralized purchase projects and industrial and commercial projects are mainly implemented in China, and overseas demand is flat. The inventory pressure on the component side is beginning to show, and it is expected that the short-term component scheduling still has room for decline.
Investment advice
From the price of each link of the industry chain this week, the price of the whole industry chain has all fallen. It is suggested to focus on the investment opportunities of leading enterprises after the price of silicon materials reaches the bottom. Highlight: Longji Lvneng and Aixu, the leading companies in BC battery new technology layout; Glass leading company: Freighter; The leading enterprise of Yinjiang: Dike Co., Ltd., actively paying attention to: Qibin Group, Foster, Zhongxinbo, Jingshan Light Machinery, Jinfu Technology, Daquan Energy, Tongling Co., Ltd., and Maddy Technology.
Risk warning
The new installed capacity of PV is less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of the industrial chain; Policy risks in overseas regions
