Investment tips for the current period:
Macro judgment of chemical industry at the current time point. According to wind data statistics, crude oil: the domestic economy is still in the recovery channel, the process of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase is expected to start, Russia and OPEC+reduce production, the global crude oil supply is tight, and the oil price is expected to remain above 80 dollars/barrel in the medium term. Coal: The price of coal has fallen in the medium and long term, and the pressure on the middle and lower reaches has gradually eased. Natural gas: the price of overseas natural gas fluctuates at the bottom. In general, energy prices will remain above the hub. The operation phase of the chemical cycle. Chemical PPI has stabilized, and it is expected that PPI will continue to fluctuate upwards in 24 years.
Chemical sector configuration. According to wind data, oil prices fell this week, coal prices fluctuated, and overseas natural gas prices bottomed out. MDI Dow North America's 440000 ton unit is force majeure. Up to now, four sets of MDI production units in North America are in low load operation, and the MDI supply side is relatively strong in price fixing. Some manufacturers of fine chemical vitamins stopped reporting, B, K and large varieties of VA and VE all warmed up at the bottom, light stabilizers and maltol manufacturers raised prices, Faberger Germany applied for bankruptcy, and the pigment market had a strong willingness to support prices. In summer, when fertilizer preparation is overlapped with overhaul peak season, the bottom of the fertilizer boom is warming up, the prices of urea and monoammonium phosphate continue to rise, and the supply side of potash fertilizer port has a strong willingness to support prices. On the whole, raw materials still remain at a medium high level, which is expected to support the slow recovery of PPI data from negative value to zero axis in December 23 of chemical industry. In the early stage of superposition, the downstream is basically in the state of active destocking, and the inventory continues to be squeezed. As the terminal starts to recover gradually, the price difference of basic chemicals is expected to repair and expand. We still cherish the opportunities at the bottom of Baima and the subdivided enterprises, and pay more attention to the subdivided enterprises Jinhe Industry Yuxin Shares, Xinhecheng, Zhenhua Shares, Garden Biology, Lianlong, Lily, etc.
Investment analysis opinions:
The traditional cycle focuses on the alpha of white horses and segmented enterprises. Focus on Wanhua Chemical, Coal Chemical Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Real Estate Chain Soda Ash Yuanxing Energy, Textile and Clothing Chain Polyester Filament Tongkun Co., Ltd., Dalian Refining Chemical and Light Hydrocarbon Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical (petrochemical coverage), Agrochemical focuses on Compound Fertilizer Xinyangfeng, Phosphorus Chemical focuses on Chuanheng Co., Ltd., Yuntianhua, pesticide subdivision targets (Runfeng Co., Ltd., etc.), civil explosive Yipuli, etc.
Upward plate at the bottom of the long boom. Due to the recovery of domestic demand and the reduction of costs, the tire industry chain is expected to continue to benefit, focusing on Sailun tires, Sen Qilin, Linglong tires, and General Motors. The fight for the quota of fluorochemical refrigerant ended, and the bottom of the price recovered. Focus on Juhua, Sanmei, Yonghe, Jinshi Resources, and Haohua Technology.
Definitive repair of growth target. In terms of semiconductor materials, we focus on Yake Technology, Guangzhou Iron&Steel Gas, Huate Gas, etc. with low valuation and deterministic and flexible performance; In terms of panel materials, focus on domestic substitution and OLED, Wanrun, Ruilian New Materials, Wright Optoelectronics, Dongcai Technology, Tianlu Technology, etc; MLCC and dental materials National porcelain materials; Synthetic biological material Huaheng Biology, adsorption and separation material Lanxiao Technology, catalytic material Jianlong Weina, aramid material Taihe New Material, lithium electricity and fluorine material New Zebang, extraction of lithium and quantum dot Xinhua Co., Ltd.
MDI sector: terminal demand is expected to release gradually, and MDI prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term. According to Baichuan Information, the mainstream negotiation of aggregated MDI domestic market was at 17100 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton month on month, and the mainstream negotiation of pure MDI domestic market was at 18800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month on month. In April 2024, Wanhua Chemical's MDI in China will be listed at a price of 20000 yuan/ton in the aggregate MDI distribution market in China (same month on month); The listing price of pure MDI is 25200 yuan/ton (same month on month).
Risk tips: 1) The progress of new projects is not as expected; 2) The price of some chemical products fell sharply due to export obstruction
