Weekly report of power equipment industry: European power grid/Haifeng is expected to boom, and the upward policy will promote the development of low altitude industry
Report Summary
1. New energy vehicles
Policies and standards promote the development of low altitude economic industry
We believe that thanks to the continuous promotion of policies and industry standards, the development of low altitude economic industries is expected to accelerate, and the scale of trillions of industries is expected. As an important carrier of low altitude economy, eVTOL has multiple advantages, and the commercialization process is expected to continue. As far as the industrial chain is concerned, the cost of the three electricity system (battery, motor, electronic control) is relatively high. Driven by the broad market scale of eVTOL, the three electricity system market upstream of the industrial chain is expected to flourish. In addition, in the field of electric aviation, higher requirements will be put forward for the three electric systems and other related parts. At present, relevant manufacturers have made preliminary layout in the battery, motor, electronic control and other fields of electric aviation, which is expected to benefit from the development of industry demand in the future and gain the first mover advantage.
2. New energy
China Photovoltaic Industry Association organized a forum on high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry. At present, the price of the main photovoltaic industry chain is low, and short-term profitability is damaged. The article of the Silicon Industry Branch on May 15 said that at present, the price of silicon material has exceeded the cash cost of all enterprises in production. We believe that the current price is in the bottom range, and the cash cost runs below the line, which cannot be maintained for a long time. Under the guidance of orderly development of the industry, with the clearing of backward production capacity, the supply and demand pattern of the industry is expected to be reshaped, and high-quality photovoltaic enterprises with product strength, brand strength and productivity in the industrial chain are expected to go through the cycle.
The orders in hand of European cable enterprises continue to grow, and domestic enterprises are optimistic about the opportunity to go to sea. It is expected that the prosperity of overseas sea breeze, especially in Europe, will rise in the future. According to windeurope, the European sea breeze is expected to increase by 5.0/6.7/8.2/8.4/10.4/23.9/31.4 GW in 24-30 years. Bidding&order demand is in advance. Bidding and order situation of single pile, submarine cable and other industrial chain links can reflect the industry prosperity in advance.
At present, the orders in hand of overseas submarine cable enterprises are growing. Under the background of the continuous expansion of the installed capacity of European sea breeze, domestic submarine cable enterprises are expected to enjoy the orders of European sea breeze - demand spillover.
From January to April of 24, the cumulative new installed capacity of the US large reserve (≥ 1MW) increased by about 198% year on year
We believe that with the decline of supply side costs such as battery cells and the expected decline of capital costs, with the help of the gradual clarification of IRA policies and the simplification of relevant policy processes, and considering the reserve of early projects, the scale of large storage units in the United States is expected to release and the industry's prosperity is expected to rise; Enterprises that actively deploy overseas, are technologically advanced, and have the opportunity to cut into the supply chain of American large reserves are expected to benefit.
3. Power equipment&industrial control
National Grid (NG) continues to increase its power grid investment planning in the United Kingdom. We believe that the global new energy installation growth+power grid transformation and upgrading+increased infrastructure support+cross-border grid interconnection demand, the overseas power equipment market has considerable space to provide an incremental market for domestic companies with offshore capabilities, and continue to look forward to the completion of overseas authoritative certification Enterprises with overseas production capacity layout and channel resources.
4. Risk Tips
The development of new energy vehicle industry did not meet expectations; The improvement of new energy installation and power restriction did not meet expectations; Risk of substantial decline in product price; The power grid construction is not as expected, and the bidding is not as expected.
