Industry status
From May 20 to 24, 2024, PV/wind power/power/environmental protection sectors will respectively+0.88%/-1.32%/+1.87%/-3.03%.
Comments
Photovoltaic: In April, the domestic installed capacity increased sharply on a month on month basis, and the symposium on high-quality photovoltaic development gave the expectation of "supply side reform". In April, 14.37GW of photovoltaic installed capacity was newly added in China, - 1.9% year-on-year and+59.3% month on month.
The Association reported that the price of silicon material stabilized this week, the prices of silicon chips, batteries and components continued to fall, the price of glass remained stable, the price of adhesive film fell, and the price of silver paste continued to rise. We are optimistic that the price of silicon materials will stop falling, which will lead to the price stabilization of main products, and that the "supply side reform" is expected to improve the supply and demand pattern of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to Faithful Light Energy and Flite (not covered) in the glass link; It is recommended to focus on Sungrow Power Supply in the inverter link, Shangneng Electric, Tongrun Equipment (not covered), HJT related Saiwu Technology, Liansheng Technology (not covered); Pay attention to Yubang New Material; CSI and others are recommended for components, and granular silicon is the focus of silicon materials.
Wind power: constrained by the poor progress of key offshore wind power projects in Jiangsu and Yangjiang, Guangdong, etc., market confidence will be weak for most of 2023, but we believe that the industry is expected to gradually see the positive promotion of key projects and more projects in other regions. At the same time, we expect that in 2024, the industry is also expected to realize order growth when overseas wind power demand enters the growth cycle. Suggestions: 1) The boom is expected to accelerate the upward trend of the offshore wind industry chain: including Dongfang Cable, which has good long-term growth, profitability and stable pattern of the submarine cable link; Taisheng Wind Energy, Tianshun Wind Energy, Haili Wind Power, Dajin Heavy Industry (not covered), and Tianneng Heavy Industry (not covered) are expected to welcome the basic links of tower drums and sea wind turbines whose shipments are expected to achieve rapid growth; 2) The cost end is expected to be improved in 2024, and at the same time, it will benefit from the whole machine link of Haifeng lifting capacity: Mingyang Intelligent, Yunda Shares, Goldwind Technology, Sany Heavy Energy (not covered); 3) The head wind turbine parts companies that benefit from the improvement of raw material costs and long-term space in overseas markets: Jinlei Shares and SunMoon Shares.
Power operation: according to the power industry data from January to April, the utilization hours of hydropower rose significantly in April, and the scenery resources were poor; The investment in power grid is faster than that in power supply, boosting the expectation of wind power consumption. In April, the utilization hours of hydropower increased significantly by+19% year on year, and the scenery increased by - 23%/- 16% year on year, resulting in poor resources. From January to April, the grid investment was+24% year on year, faster than the power supply (+5%), and from April to April, it was+46% year on year. At the entrepreneurs' forum, the reform of electricity was proposed to release positive signals. At the recent high-level and entrepreneur symposium, the chairman of SDIC put forward suggestions on deepening the reform of the power system, and sent a positive signal of rapid progress to the market. The average price of steam coal this week is+1.3% month on month to 878 yuan/ton, and the demand for power plant replenishment is gradually rising before summer. We are optimistic about the nuclear power leader China Guanghe; It is recommended that in 2024, thermal power Davis should double click on the leaders Huaneng International and Guodian Power; Recommended undervalued new energy leader Longyuan Electric Power - H; With the improvement of incoming water, it is suggested to focus on Guiguan Power (not covered).
Valuation and recommendations
Keep the profit forecast, rating and target price of relevant companies unchanged.
Risk
Macroeconomic downturn, raw material price fluctuation, policy implementation less than expected, downstream demand less than expected.
