[Tracking the price difference of key refining and chemical projects at home and abroad] The price difference this week was 2711.81 yuan/ton,+100.76 yuan/ton month on month (+3.86% month on month); The price difference of major foreign refining and chemical projects this week is 1139.50 yuan/ton,+60.63 yuan/ton (+5.62% month on month).
[Polyester sector] Leading enterprises raised their quotations, and the polyester filament market fell first and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the production and marketing of the filament market continued to be under pressure, and the willingness of enterprises to ship increased. Some enterprises expanded their incentives to yield profits to the downstream. The production and marketing improved for a while, and the inventory pressure eased. However, the loss of cash flow in the filament market was very serious, and then the enterprise's willingness to protect the price increased. The leading manufacturers first took action to adjust the quotation list and cancel the discount. The actual price of the order rose, and some other manufacturers followed suit, raising the quotation. The market transaction focus moved up, but the downstream market was relatively short of new orders, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the textile enterprises faded after replenishment, Return to a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The average price of the POY/FDY/DTY industry this week was 7407/8046/8946 yuan/ton, and the month on month ratio was - 36/- 4/- 21 yuan/ton, respectively. The average weekly profit of the POY/FDY/DTY industry was - 234/- 76/- 76 yuan/ton, and the month on month ratio was - 114/- 93/- 104 yuan/ton, respectively. The filament operating rate was 86.50%, and the month on month ratio was -1.81 pct. In the downstream, the operating rate of looms this week was 69.63%, -1.08 pct month on month, the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises was 10.56 days,+0.86 days month on month, and the finished product inventory of weaving enterprises was 23.43 days,+1.06 days month on month.
[Refining sector] Domestic refined oil: gasoline prices fell and diesel/aviation kerosene prices rose this week, including narrowed gasoline price gap and expanded diesel/aviation kerosene price gap. Foreign refined oil: this week, the gasoline price in the United States fell, the diesel/aviation kerosene price rose, and the gasoline/diesel/aviation kerosene price difference expanded.
[Chemical sector] PX: The average price of PX this week was 1030.83 dollars/ton,+22.40 dollars/ton month on month, a difference of 425.82 dollars/ton compared with the original oil price,+24.82 dollars/ton month on month, the PX operating rate was 74.06%, - 5.73 pct month on month. Other chemicals: This week, the price difference between polyethylene and polypropylene was wider than the original oil price, while the price difference between other chemicals and crude oil was narrowed as a whole.
[Polyurethane sector] This week, the average price of pure MDI/polymeric MDI/TDI industry was 18460/17370/14586 yuan/ton, - 107/- 13/+49 yuan/ton month on month, the gross profit of pure MDI/polymeric MDI/TDI industry was 4118/4028/2369 yuan/ton month on month, - 141/- 48/+208 yuan/ton month on month.
[Oil gas olefin sector] ① The average price of ethane/propane/steam coal/naphtha this week was 1118/4546/728/4796 yuan/ton, and the month on month ratio was+57/+127/- 3/+50 yuan/ton. ② The average price of polyethylene this week is 8588 yuan/ton, and the month on month ratio is+62 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit from ethane cracking/CTO/naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene is 1839/1836/- 157 yuan/ton, and the month on month ratio is - 29/+47/- 24 yuan/ton. ③ The average price of polypropylene this week is 7700 yuan/ton, month on month+108 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit of PDH/CTO/naphtha pyrolysis to polypropylene is - 49/1446/- 360 yuan/ton, month on month - 55/+78/+8 yuan/ton, respectively.
[Coal chemical industry sector] The average price of synthetic ammonia/urea/DMF/acetic acid industry this week was 2942/2318/4692/3133 yuan/ton, - 62/+32/+33/- 83 yuan/ton month on month, respectively. The gross profit of synthetic ammonia/urea/DMF/acetic acid industry was 754/524/- 381/253 yuan/ton month on month, - 66/+15/+116/- 41 yuan/ton month on month.
[Related listed companies] 1) Private refining&polyester filament: Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Shares, Xinfengming; 2) Chemical white horse: Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng.
[Risk tips] 1) The project implementation progress is not as expected; 2) The decline in macroeconomic growth has led to a weaker than expected recovery in demand; 3) The evolution of geographical risk leads to fluctuations in the price of raw materials; 4) Significant changes in industry capacity; 5) Statistical caliber and calculation error.
