Petroleum processing industry: weekly report of major refining: oil prices have fallen, refining and chemical profits have improved slightly
Tracking of price difference between domestic and foreign key refining and chemical projects: as of the week of May 24, the price difference between domestic key major refining and chemical projects was 2360.96 yuan/ton, with a month on month change of+37.59 yuan/ton (+1.62%); The price difference of major foreign refining and chemical projects is 1139.27 yuan/ton, and the month on month change is+60.77 yuan/ton (+5.63%). As of the week of May 24, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil was 82.77 dollars/barrel, a month on month change of -0.53%.
[Refining sector] In May, the comprehensive prosperity index of the US manufacturing and service industries was significantly higher than that of last month. The rise of the US dollar index put pressure on crude oil. Superimposed on the minutes of the US monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve's concern about inflation led to the postponement of interest rate cut expectations. The market was worried about the impact of long-term high interest rates on crude oil demand, and oil prices continued to fall. As of this Friday (May 24, 2024), Brent and WTI oil prices were 82.12 and 77.72 dollars/barrel respectively. The price of domestic oil products remained stable, while the price of overseas oil products rose generally.
[Chemical sector] The price of chemical products rose and fell at different levels this week. On the whole, the current downstream demand is generally weak, and downstream manufacturers mainly purchase products in rigid demand. The supply side fluctuations of some products have some support for prices. Specifically, the polyethylene manufacturer continued to repair the production line as planned this week, supporting the product price to continue to rise, but the number of unit overhauls decreased significantly compared with last week. The shutdown progress of styrene unit is greater than the restart progress, the domestic start-up and market inventory continue to be low, and the supply side supports the rising price of products. The price of polypropylene rose slightly. Under the background of weak cost and relatively stable supply and demand of acrylonitrile, the product price dropped significantly. EVA price center moves down. PC、MMA、 The price of pure benzene remained stable as a whole.
[Polyester sector] In the context of shrinking supply, the price focus of polyester upstream this week has risen as a whole, but the demand for polyester filament downstream is still relatively weak, with obvious off-season atmosphere. Product prices have continued to fall, and the profit per ton has declined significantly. On the upstream side, PX's domestic market started to decline, while the load of some devices decreased, and product prices rose against the trend. The prices of MEG and PTA also increased. In terms of polyester filament, with the gradual delivery of early orders, the off-season atmosphere of the downstream textile market has become increasingly prominent. The number of new orders issued is insufficient, and the supply and demand pattern is still weak. With the rising price of raw materials, the product profit has declined significantly. The price of staple fiber and bottle chips rose slightly.
The rise and fall of the six major refining and chemical companies: As of May 24, 2024, the share prices of six major private refining and chemical companies have risen and fallen in the past week by Rongsheng Petrochemical (- 5.55%), Hengli Petrochemical (- 3.13%), Dongfang Shenghong (- 5.52%), Hengyi Petrochemical (- 3.82%), Tongkun Shares (+0.84%), and Xinfengming (+0.46%). The increase and decrease in recent months were Rongsheng Petrochemical (- 4.94%), Hengli Petrochemical (- 0.13%), Dongfang Shenghong (- 7.22%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+6.87%), Tongkun Shares (+12.86%) and Xinfengming (+11.90%).
Risk factors: (1) The progress of putting into production and reaching the production capacity of the large refining unit is not as expected. (2) The decline in macroeconomic growth has led to weak demand side performance. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) Significant changes in PX-PTA-PET industrial chain capacity.
