1. 24Q1 Overview of Household Appliance Industry
In the 24Q1 household appliance sector, white electricity has the most obvious relative returns, while other sectors have structural growth, and the valuation level of most targets has increased month on month. In terms of fund positions, 24Q1 fund's willingness to hold heavy positions in household appliances increased month on month, and its shareholding ratio continued to increase by 0.9 pct to 3.9% month on month; The proportion of over matching is 1.9%, which is 0.8 pct higher than that of 23Q4. The proportion of over matching has been close to the average level (2.1%) since 2017. From the perspective of the stock bond yield model, the Shenwan appliance index is currently at the three-year average level of the stock bond yield difference.
In terms of domestic sales, the domestic sales volume of household air conditioners in 24Q1 was 25.74 million units, and the growth rate was higher than expected under the high base, with obvious resilience; In January and February, the online growth of optional products in small household appliances was under pressure, and the growth of sweepers was achieved under the low base. In terms of exports, 24Q1 benefited from European and American stock replenishment, and improved demand led to export repair, and the overall stability of North American real estate; From a regional perspective, in recent years, the export volume of major electric appliances in emerging markets has expanded significantly, bringing the main source of growth for household appliances exports.
2. Overview
White electricity sector: the domestic and foreign sales are good, and the impact of raw material price fluctuations is controllable. The domestic and foreign sales delivery scene is good, and the profit level is steadily improved. From the industrial online data, the domestic demand for air ice cleaning in 24 years was good, and the domestic sales of air ice cleaning in 24Q1 achieved positive growth, especially the air conditioner still maintained a good shipment growth under the high growth base in the same period last year, which was better than the market expectation; Driven by the demand for replenishment, the export of air ice washing has maintained a high growth rate since 23Q3, showing a good prosperity. In terms of cost, the copper price trend in raw materials is stronger this time, rather than the general rise in the price of core raw materials. At present, the impact on the white electricity company is controllable. The company can also conduct transmission through hedging, cost reduction and efficiency increase, and product structure upgrading in the future.
Kitchen electricity sector: the market for tobacco stoves has grown steadily, and Vatti's revenue and performance have grown significantly. In 24Q1, the growth rate of double line sales in the market of tobacco stoves increased steadily; The double line average price of the range hood market has increased, and the double leading position of the boss and the founder of kitchen appliances has been consolidated.
23H1 The retail sales of the kitchen appliance industry increased slightly year on year. On the statement side, in the 23rd year/24Q1, the business revenue of the kitchen and big electricity sector was YoY+4%/- 1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was YoY+12/- 7%. From the performance of individual stocks, Vantage outperformed the industry in terms of revenue and profit growth, and the growth performance of integrated kitchen enterprises was under pressure. In terms of profitability, integrated kitchen enterprises are under pressure; Among them, 23Q4&24Q1 Vantage's profitability continued to improve, and the boss's net interest rate remained stable. At the same time, 24Q1 boss and Vantage's inventory turnover increased year on year, and the operating cash flow increased significantly year on year.
Small household appliances sector: the export chain performed well, and domestic demand was repaired waiting for the inflection point. In 24Q1, the revenue growth of clean electrical appliance companies was better, and the growth of domestic sales of traditional small household appliances was still under pressure. On the profit side, the clean electrical appliance sector rose significantly, mainly from several contributions: 1) The cost control effect was obvious, especially the sales expense rate significantly reduced the profit contribution level. 2) Companies with a high proportion of exports benefited from the favorable 24Q1 exchange rate, and the decline in financial expense ratio contributed to net profits. 3) The profit level of clean appliance private brand companies in export sales was higher than that in domestic sales, and the net profit increased when the proportion of export sales revenue increased and the revenue growth accelerated.
Black electricity sector: the structure optimization continued, and the average price of the industry increased under the rebound of panel price. Under the influence of the high fluctuation of upstream panel prices and the continuation of the upgrading trend of the color TV industry structure, the 24Q1 color TV market sales volume was 25.5 billion yuan, an increase of 12.6% year on year; The average price was 3616 yuan, up 18.9% year on year. In terms of profitability, after the rapid decline of panel price in 21Q3, 23Q2 started to increase significantly year on year, and it continues to be high at present. Affected by the cost increase, the gross profit rate of Hisense Video Q1 has slightly declined compared with the same period.
Other household appliances sector: 24Q1 electrician sector saw steady growth in revenue and improved profitability. In 24Q1, the revenue of civil electricians rose steadily, and the profits of Oupu and Bull increased by more than 20%. In 24Q1, Dunan's inventory turnover accelerated significantly year on year, and its operating cash flow improved significantly year on year.
3. Investment suggestions
Outlook: Since the beginning of the year, we have always adhered to the judgment of good performance of "white electricity+export" chain companies. Looking forward to the second quarter, we continue to be optimistic about the stable assets represented by white electricity and the export chain companies represented by independent brands. We believe that the current export boom is relatively high, and we are optimistic that the domestic "old for new" policy is gradually taking effect. The joint force of "old for new" is being formed in both publicity and subsidies, which is conducive to stimulating a larger stock market (the warehousing report "Tianfeng Household Appliances | Home Appliances: pay attention to the policy of" old for new ", and facilitate the release of demand for stock update" on February 26, 2024 We estimate that the air ice washing stock is close to 2 billion units, and the renewal cycle has been significantly longer than 10 years). In addition, we suggest paying attention to the historical relatively low benchmark dominated by domestic demand, such as Cowos, Jimi Technology, and the kitchen big electricity sector.
Recommended subject: 1) Large household appliances: such as [Midea Group]/[Hisense Appliances]/[Gree Appliances]/[Haier Smart Home]; 2) Small household appliances: such as [Stone Technology]/[Coworth]; 3) Other household appliances: such as [Oupu Lighting] (jointly covered with the electronic group)/[Dunan Environment] (jointly covered with the mechanical group)/[Bull Group]/[Changhong Huayi], etc.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; The risk of fluctuations in the real estate market; Risk of price fluctuation of raw materials; The measurement process is subjective; The small number of samples may cause the risk of deviation of statistical results.
