Key investment points:
618 special topic: The platform has increased the flow tilt of cost-effective products, and focused on cost-effective consumption in the near future. The 618 promotion of various platforms has been launched in succession. From the perspective of platform play, this year 618 promoted the cancellation of pre-sales, and generally increased the flow resource tilt of low-cost products, reflecting that the current trend of cost-effective consumption is still continuing. From the perspective of brand discount strength, the discount strength of 618 small household appliances this year is greater than that of other categories, and the discount strength of large household appliances, clean appliances and other categories is not much different from that of previous years.
According to the war report released at present, in the household appliance sector, Tmall has increased the subsidy of old for new to drive the release of demand for air conditioners; In the textile and clothing sector, JD strengthened its strategic cooperation with luxury brands, and 618 had a strong start; In the pet sector, we have made a good start and look forward to the performance of domestic brands in the future.
Market data
Home appliance sector rose or fell by - 3.3% this week, of which white/black/small household appliances/kitchen appliances rose or fell by - 2.8%/- 4.3%/- 4.1%/- 5.2% respectively. In terms of raw material prices, LME copper, LME aluminum and plastic prices were -1.36%,+2.16% and+0% month on month respectively last week.
The textile and clothing sector rose or fell by - 3.21% this week, of which textile manufacturing rose or fell by - 4.32%, and clothing and home textile rose or fell by - 2.81%. This week, the spot price of 328 grade cotton was 16465 yuan/ton (+1.3%), American Cotton Cotbook A 88.6 cents/pound (+3.2%), and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was 717 yuan/ton (- 43.1%).
Investment advice
Household appliances: 1) It is suggested to focus on the major household appliances that have benefited from going overseas, such as Haier Zhijia, Midea Group, Hisense Video, TCL Electronics, as well as the small household appliances that have actively launched into the blue ocean market in Southeast Asia, such as Feike Appliances, Xiaoxiong Appliances, Jimi Technology, which has launched into Europe and the United States with a low base and continuous repair, and the global leader in small household appliance manufacturing, Xinbao Co., Ltd., which is good at R&D and marketing of blockbusters; 2) The advantage of China's sweeping machine brand in global product force has been continuously reflected in the share increase, and the overlapping global sweeping machine is in the early stage of penetration increase, so it is suggested to focus on Stone Technology and Coves; 3) Pay attention to the post-60s consumption with a large population base, high income and high savings, and entering the retirement tide. It is suggested to focus on the positioning of Supor and Jiuyang Shares with medium and high-end quality life; 4) The destocking of overseas durable consumer goods may have ended. It is suggested to focus on superstar technology, Chuangke Industry, Quanfeng Holdings, Glibo, Kangguan Technology and Warburg New Energy, which benefit from the recovery of overseas demand.
Textile and clothing: It is suggested to grasp three main lines: 1) The visibility of manufacturing and export fundamentals recovery is high, and the certainty of reaching the target on the income side is high under the logic of OEM leading core orders recovery+high growth of new customers. The superposition of capacity utilization recovery drives the scale effect. It is suggested to focus on Shenzhou International, Huali Group and Jiansheng Group. 2) In the context of event marketing boost+new product release in the past 24 years, Sports is expected to boost flow and store efficiency. It is suggested to focus on the 361 degree that the brand strength is significantly improved and the order will grow significantly. 3) We are optimistic about the trend of going to sea and giving priority to the clothing brands to enter the market. It is suggested to focus on Anta Sports, Karun Shares and Sima Clothing.
Pets: It is suggested to focus on Guaibao Pets, whose domestic independent brands continue to lead, whose basic research and development+marketing education strength is strong, and whose dual brands of Maifudi+Fregat grow, Zhongbao Shares, whose export business recovery+brand adjustment effect is expected to gradually emerge, and Pete Shares, whose export business restoration normality and profitability are expected to recover, and Petit Shares, whose independent brand Jueyan, etc., continue to be beautiful.
Risk warning
Price rise of raw materials; Demand is less than expected; Exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
