Fund analysis report: cyclical growth fund pool 202405: excess recovery
The investment strategy of cyclical growth is to find individual stocks in cyclical industries that can break away from the industry cycle and achieve their own sustainable growth. In some partial cycle industries with high penetration rate and relatively small industry growth space, some companies have strong competitive advantages and bargaining power, good business model and strategic layout, corporate governance and technological progress, which make their performance gradually break away from the industry cycle and achieve more stable growth. The cycle growth track currently selected is mainly scattered in machinery, basic chemical industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and other industries.
This report will select the current cyclical growth funds in the market for reference by investors who have allocation needs.
Cyclic growth fund pool: with high stability. From February 7, 2014 to May 22, 2024, the annualized return rate of the fund pool is 11.51%, and the annualized excess return relative to the partial equity fund index is 3.58%, the annualized fluctuation is 20.83%, and the annualized Sharp is 0.55. The portfolio performance volatility is low. In 2021-2022, it obtained higher excess return compared with partial fund index.
Industry allocation, stock selection and dynamics all contributed to higher excess returns. The overall ability level of the fund pool is balanced, with a preference for high liquidity, high volatility, prominent growth attributes, and a mid market bias. Recently, the fund pool has shown significant profitability.
From the perspective of plate layout, the configuration is relatively balanced and the switch is obvious. Currently, cycle+consumption+TMT is the main mode.
Definition and selection of cyclical growth funds. The definition of cyclical growth funds is mainly based on the attributes of the holding industry and individual stocks. The average proportion of growth stocks in the fund's heavy positions in the past year is>60%, and the minimum proportion is>40%. On this basis, the fund sample of cyclical growth stocks in the current heavy positions>30% is a cyclical growth fund. For the screening of the cyclical growth fund pool, we mainly look for funds that focus on expected returns and positions that are less affected by valuation. They can find funds with high expected future profitability, high financial quality, and low impact of valuation on market value in the cyclical industries.
Risk tip: the quantitative conclusion is based on historical statistics. If the future market environment changes, failure may not be ruled out. The fund income contribution and allocation ratio in the report are calculated based on the top ten heavy positions in the quarterly report. All funds involved in this report are only for attribution analysis, without any recommendation.
