Investment value analysis of Huaxia CSI All Index Real Estate ETF: favorable policies boost the expected real estate sector valuation repair
Core viewpoints
In the environment of frequent favorable policies and gradual stabilization of industry fundamentals, the real estate industry has a high allocation cost performance ratio, and the real estate index represented by the China Securities All Index Real Estate Index has a high allocation value.
Favorable policies for real estate have emerged frequently, boosting industry profit expectations
On May 17, 2024, the Central Bank and the General Administration of Financial Supervision issued three policy adjustments on housing loans, mainly including: 1) establishing 300 billion yuan of affordable housing refinancing; 2) Decrease the down payment ratio: the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first house is adjusted to no less than 15%; The minimum down payment ratio of commercial individual housing loans for two sets of housing is adjusted to not less than 25%; 3) Adjust the lower limit of housing loan interest rate: cancel the lower limit of commercial individual housing loan interest rate policy for the first and second housing at the national level. 4) Reduce the interest rate of provident fund loan:
The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, the first personal housing provident fund loan interest rate for less than five years (including five years) and more than five years was adjusted to 2.35% and 2.85% respectively, and the second personal housing provident fund loan interest rate for less than five years (including five years) and more than five years was adjusted to not less than 2.775% and 3.325% respectively.
Land supply policy was tightened, and the destocking of existing houses was gradually accelerated
On May 17, 2024, the People's Bank of China announced that it plans to set up affordable housing refinancing, with a scale of 300 billion yuan, an interest rate of 1.75%, a term of one year and four extensions. This strongly supported the local state-owned enterprises to purchase the completed but unsold commercial housing at a reasonable price and use it as affordable housing for rationing or renting. In accordance with the principle of independent decision-making and risk bearing, the bank will grant loans to local state-owned enterprises selected by the city government to purchase commercial houses that have been built but not sold and use them as affordable housing. The central bank will issue re loans based on 60% of the loan principal, which can drive bank loans of 500 billion yuan. At the same time, local governments can further alleviate the pressure on the supply side of the market and stabilize the real estate market by combining the digestion of existing housing and the supply of affordable housing.
At present, the real estate industry index has a high allocation cost performance ratio
According to the consensus expectation of Wande, in 2024, the net profit of the real estate industry is expected to grow at a year-on-year rate of 644.61%, ranking first among all Shenyi class industries; The industry's operating income is close to the average level, reaching 43.01%, ranking in the middle of all Shenyi level industries. In terms of horizontal comparison, as of May 21, 2024, the P/B ratio of the China Securities All Index Real Estate Index and the dividend yield in the past 12 months were 0.77 and 1.92%, respectively, and the valuation level was lower than most broad based indexes, with a high valuation safety pad. With the orderly release of favorable policies for real estate, the steady progress of guaranteed delivery buildings and the gradual de stocking of stock housing inventory, the prosperity of the real estate industry is expected to be gradually restored in the future. In the near future, the marginal improvement of the real estate policy is expected to gradually optimize the problems of guaranteed delivery and high real estate inventory.
Risk warning
The research and analysis of fund products and indexes in this report are based on historical public information, which may cause certain analysis deviation due to changes in sample stocks of the index; The historical data performance of the index does not represent the future. The future performance is affected by multiple factors such as the macro environment, market fluctuations, and style changes, and there is a certain volatility risk; This report does not involve the evaluation of securities investment funds, the recommendation of fund products, or the recommendation of any index sample stocks.
