The oil price and oil service ushered in a boom resonance cycle, and the upstream investment value of petrochemical industry was highlighted. In the oil and gas exploitation sector, we believe that in the future, the overseas and domestic economies may face a double recovery, and the demand for crude oil will continue to grow; The US oil exploration is facing the dual pressure of inferior resources and cost inflation. OPEC+led by Saudi Arabia has a strong desire to maintain high oil prices, and the pattern of tight crude oil supply has not changed; In addition to the long-term strategic reserve crude oil replenishment demand of the United States, the oil price will remain at a medium high level in the medium and long term, and the energy resources are expected to be in a boom cycle in the next 3-5 years. We will continue to be firmly optimistic about this round of energy inflation, and continue to be firmly optimistic about the historical allocation opportunities of energy resources such as crude oil in the production capacity cycle. Focus on high oil price+undervalue+high dividend, CNOOC with competitive cost and traditional leaders such as PetroChina and Sinopec with integrated production and refining and monopoly channel advantages. Under the long-term expectation and confidence of medium and high oil prices, upstream capital expenditure may achieve further growth. In the oil service sector, the capacity of the oil service industry may have been cleared. The capacity utilization rate and service price of the oil service industry have gradually increased, and the future may further usher in an upward boom cycle. Focus on the performance growth prospects of COSL and COOEC in terms of the growth of domestic offshore oil and gas production and the continuous increase of capital expenditure in South America and other regions, and pay attention to the opportunities of CPE and CNOOC to share the dividend of reserve increase and production increase in China and to explore new fields and achieve new breakthroughs in the Middle East and Central Asia, Pay attention to the opportunities of JERRY in unconventional oil and gas development and equipment electrification in China and North America.
Capacity expansion at the supply side is slowing down, overlapping demand recovery, and refining is expected to usher in repair. On the supply side, from the end of the 13th Five Year Plan to the beginning of the 14th Five Year Plan, affected by the peak of private large-scale refining and chemical production, the supply capacity expansion of large-scale refining and chemical is concentrated, but the current supply side capacity expansion is gradually slowing down. In addition, under the constraint of low-carbon, the domestic refining and chemical industry is embracing structural adjustment. The inefficient and backward refining energy will continue to be cleared, and the leading enterprises with integration advantages may be the first to benefit. On the demand side, after the comprehensive optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, domestic transportation has outperformed expectations, greatly boosting the demand for refined oil products. This increase in external offline consumption scenarios also supports the demand for chemicals. Focus on PetroChina and Sinopec with multiple refining and chemical integration units and product oil export quotas, downstream private refining and chemical integration enterprises Rongsheng Petrochemical and Dongfang Shenghong, as well as Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd. and Xinfengming, which are planning to build refineries in Southeast Asia.
The "double carbon" transformation may promote the high growth of domestic natural gas consumption, and the marketization reform of natural gas prices opens up space for gas prices to rise. In terms of international gas price, the current international gas price has returned to the normal situation of fundamental pricing from the panicky premium after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance in the next 1-2 years. On the domestic side, driven by factors such as the return of gas prices to normal levels and China's "dual carbon" energy transformation, domestic natural gas consumption is expected to maintain a rapid growth in the future for a long time, with broad consumption space; At the same time, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic natural gas marketization reform, the space for price rise is expected to open. Even if the international gas price does not rise significantly in the future, the profits of upstream gas sources and natural gas traders are also expected to develop well.
CSI Oil and Gas Resources Index (931248. CSI): As of May 15, 2024, the weighted price earnings ratio (TTM) of the index is 12.11 times. We use the current constituent stocks of the company to make a valuation retrospective for about ten years. Since the base date of the index, the current PE valuation level is 3.05% of the historical percentage. In addition, we consider that under the background of the epidemic in 2020, the industry profit has declined significantly, leading to a sharp rise in the P/E ratio. Even excluding the impact of extreme circumstances in 2020, the current index P/E ratio is also at the 6.19% quantile level in the past decade. The current index valuation is at a historical low level. Considering that the industry has entered a boom zone in the context of high and medium oil prices, There is still much room for the index valuation to rise. In addition, we also compared the P/E ratio of SW utilities and US equity oil and gas sectors. The current index valuation is lower than that of SW utilities and US equity oil and gas sectors. Compared with the utility sector, the index has certain advantages in valuation performance price ratio, which is close to that of US equity oil and gas sectors.
Huitianfu CSI Oil and Gas Resources Trading Open Index Securities Investment Fund (transaction code:
159309, referred to as "oil and gas resource ETF" for short in the market). The investment goal of the fund is to closely track the underlying index, and to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error. The underlying index is the CSI oil and gas resource index and its possible changes in the future. The Fund mainly invests in the underlying index component stocks and alternative component stocks. The fund is an equity fund, and its expected risk and return are higher than those of hybrid funds, bond funds and money market funds. At the same time, the fund is an index fund, which mainly uses the complete replication method to track the performance of the underlying index, with risk return characteristics similar to the underlying index.
Risk factors: international crude oil prices fluctuate significantly; Macroeconomic downturn; Stock market volatility rises; The strength of financial supervision rose more than expected; Geopolitical crisis. The Fund is an equity fund with a high level of expected risk return; Historical performance does not represent the future.
