Monthly analysis of public funds: the issuance proportion of bond funds further improved, and the performance of bond funds improved compared with that in March
abstract
From our observation, the scale of public funds in April 2024 shows the following changes: 1) In April, the issuance of equity funds slowed down, while the issuance of bond funds continued to grow, with a year-on-year growth rate of 146%. 2) In April, the issuance of newly established bond funds still accounted for the highest proportion among all kinds of funds, and the proportion further increased to 85%, with a scale of 117.9 billion yuan. The main contributions are still medium and long-term pure debt funds and passive index funds. 3) Among pure bond funds, the scale of interest rate bond pure bond funds increased slightly month on month, accounting for 21% in April and 79% in comprehensive category. 4) In terms of floor funds, the share of stocks in the floor increased significantly in April, the share of credit bond ETFs in bond ETFs increased rapidly, and the scale of ultra long bond ETFs decreased.
In terms of fund performance, the overall performance of the fund in April was good, the average yield of stock based and hybrid funds was high, and the performance of bond funds was improved compared with that in March, driven by the decline of bond yield. In addition, the average yield of QDII funds and alternative investment funds is high, but the internal differentiation is also obvious. In the stock funds, the stock base of each subdivision type performs well. Among them, the performance of common stock funds and index enhanced stock funds is better than that of passive index funds in terms of both the median rate of return and the average rate of return. Hybrid funds also performed well and outperformed stock funds on the whole. The median and average returns of various hybrid funds in April were more than 10%. Equity QDII funds and hybrid QDII funds have relatively good performance, but alternative investment QDII funds and bond QDII funds have weak performance, among which the latter may be dragged down by the rising bond yields of major overseas economies in April. Commodity type alternative investment funds still performed strongly, driven by the gold price still rising to a certain extent in April, but the returns of stock long short type alternative investment funds and other alternative investment funds were relatively low. The overall performance of bond funds has improved compared with that in March, and the overall yield of all sub categories of bond funds is positive. In terms of breakdown, thanks to the overall downward trend of bond yields in April, the median and average yields of pure bond funds are above 4%, and the median and average yields of index bond funds are above 3%. In addition, convertible bond funds and hybrid bond funds also performed well.
Since April, as the central bank has continued to guide the interest rate range of ultra long bonds, and the supply of medium and short end bonds is insufficient, the bond yield curve has shown a steep change from short to long. From the perspective of bond supply expectation, market institutions are also shortening the investment duration due to the large issuance of subsequent ultra long end bonds, the relative shortage of short and medium end bonds, and the "risk warning" of the rising interest rate of the ultra long end. In the future, we believe that the long-term interest rate may still be dominated by shocks in the short term, and the allocation demand for medium and short term bonds may be more obvious, leading to the decline of medium and short term bond interest rates in the first place in the super long term bond interest rates. However, after the curve becomes steeper, the value of the long end and the super long end will re highlight, and the interest rate may also further decline. The demand for the long end and super long end may rise again in the subsequent market, so that the curve may eventually be re flattened. Therefore, we believe that there is still room for the bond base to rise.
Risk
Monetary policy tightened more than expected.
