A share fell continuously, and the Shanghai Stock Index fell below 2500 points

Emily Whiting, Executive Director of Morgan Asset Management: Looking for A share buying opportunities in the decline Our reporter Li Jiexue reports from London On October 18, A-share suffered another heavy fall, with the three major stock indexes falling by more than 2%, and the Shanghai Index closing down nearly 3%, falling below the 2500 point integer threshold and closing at 2486.42, a new low since November 2014; The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 2.4%, and the GEM approached 1200 points. Compared with the end of 2017, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index retreated by 24.82%; Shenzhen Stock Index retreated 32.02%; GEM index retreated 31.25%. However, with the sharp decline of A-shares, more and more foreign institutions have increased their observation of A-shares, and some of them have even taken actions to increase A-shares. A few days ago, 21st Century Business Reporters attended the annual media conference of JPMorgan Asset Management (hereinafter referred to as "JPMorgan Asset Management") under JPMorgan Chase Group in London, England. At this meeting, "China A-share" became a high-frequency word that cannot be ignored. Morgan Asset Management believes that China's A-share market will promote the development of the entire emerging market in the future, and Morgan Asset will increase the layout of the A-share market. During the meeting, Emily Whiting, Executive Director of Morgan Asset Management, received an exclusive interview from our reporter. Emily Whiting is an investment expert of Morgan Asset Management's emerging markets and Asia Pacific equity team. She pointed out that "Morgan Asset Management has been increasing its A-share holdings in the past few months. The market decline has brought better opportunities for high-quality targets to intervene. We hope to get long-term returns in the Chinese market." Sharp decline brings buying opportunities 21st Century: Since the beginning of this year, China's A-share market has experienced a sharp decline. Do you think it is a good time to allocate the A-share market? Emily Whiting: We think so. There are some very attractive opportunities in the A-share market. In fact, we have been increasing the allocation of A-shares, especially in the past few months. Because we noticed that some high-quality companies are being sold off on a large scale, which gives us the opportunity to buy. Although the factors of trade war make us worried about China, we will observe these companies in the next three years, five years and ten years. As the time line grows longer and all the noise surrounding the trade war disappears, we think these companies will become very attractive and can bring us long-term returns. We are aware that some things may get worse before they get better, but we think there will be some good valuation opportunities, especially some companies that are well managed, well governed and linked to China's domestic spending. Many people become panic when the market falls, but you will find that when the market falls, all good or bad things in the market will fall, and for good things, the current sale is a good opportunity to buy. We should try to find opportunities from the noise and look at them in the long run. As a foreign-funded institution, it needs to be selective in the allocation of A-shares, need personnel and field coverage research, need research teams and resources, and so on. In our team, there are more than 30 Mandarin speakers just covering emerging markets in Asia, and team members can speak a total of 21 different languages. Many asset management institutions cannot do this. Therefore, I think we have the ability to go to different emerging markets to find opportunities that have not been discovered. 21st Century: Can you talk about how Morgan Asset Management explores investment opportunities in China and other emerging markets? Are there any special favorite fields? Emily Whiting: I think in some industries, more and more emerging market companies are as good or even better than developed market companies. Especially in science and technology, we believe that there are many "undiscovered" enterprises that will become leaders in emerging markets. For example, in the banking industry, India's HDFC (note: India's fourth largest private bank) and Russia's Sberbank (note: Russian Federal Reserve Bank) have done a lot of things through applications on mobile devices. In India's HDFC, you can carry out 75 different transactions on your mobile phone, while in the UK, you are lucky if you can do three transactions. In addition, people in Asia spend more money on the Internet to buy everything they need from the Internet, while few people in the United States shop online. So I think e-commerce and technology are the places where many leaders can be born in emerging markets. China is also a good example. There are more UAVs made in China than anywhere else in the world. In terms of surveillance cameras, China has a leader like Hikvision. The engine made by China's Wangao Motor is as good as that made by any other advanced company in the world. People used to think that emerging markets were one step behind, but I think they are almost there now. In many cases, emerging markets take the lead in technology, which is why technology has a greater weight in the Asian index than the S&P 500 index. Therefore, the so-called "undetected" means that many people have no research ability to find these companies, and we hope to find these companies before others hear about them. Such names as Midea, Fuyao Glass, or Yili are widely known in China, but few of us know about them. These companies can be said to be the "first wave" for foreign institutions to explore A-shares. What we need to do next is to explore the "next wave". We can't find these companies behind the Bloomberg terminal in London, but we must implement them. Favor long-term inflow of foreign capital 21st Century: Not long ago, FTSE Russell confirmed that China's A-share market will be upgraded to a secondary emerging market. Almost at the same time, MSCI announced that it plans to increase MSCI's A-share large cap stocks by 5% to 20%. In addition, the "Shanghai Luntong" mechanism is also advancing. What do you think these actions mean for the Chinese market? Emily Whiting: I think it is very helpful to improve the popularity and credibility of A-share, which is mainly reflected in the following two aspects: first, it forces foreign investors to understand that A-share is a huge market, and people will find that the liquidity of A-share market is more than the total of other emerging markets. Secondly, foreign institutions will passively promote the flow of funds into A-shares, because after A-shares enter the index, everyone must hold them. For those of us who are active managers, this also forces us to think about what we should do with such a large market? How to approach it? How will you invest? Which companies do we like or dislike? This will eventually force more people to participate and make decisions. In the short term, the inflow of foreign capital into A shares may decline, but the long-term trend is bound to increase. In the next three years, five years and ten years, you will gradually see more and more capital inflows. At present, the A-share market is still dominated by local retail investors, and there is almost no foreign ownership. Therefore, the increase of foreign ownership in the future is a good thing, because it is more stable and long-term. On the other hand, the inflow of foreign capital will theoretically encourage more Asian investors to make long-term investments, although it is not easy to change the mentality and mood of Asian investors. From different regions of the world, Asian investors usually like to change their portfolios in the short term, so I'm not sure whether the inflow of foreign capital will completely extricate A-shares from this situation. But at least we hope that the intervention of foreign capital can start to encourage people to take a longer view and regard buying stocks as investment rather than gambling. We expect this change. 21st Century: Due to the increasingly open financial environment in China, the interest of foreign institutions in the Chinese market has indeed increased significantly. However, many mainland investors believe that it may be difficult for foreign institutions to adapt to the Chinese market. What do you think of this? Emily Whiting: I think it is true. This is also the concern of many foreign investors about China. There are many foreign investors who believe that the Chinese market is not stable enough, and that the market is not reasonably priced according to fundamentals. People just buy because prices rise. Therefore, the A-share market needs to be changed. With the increase of foreign investors, the stock prices of A-share companies will be more in line with the fundamentals than they are now, but this will take time. Before that, being included in the international index was a good way for people to buy A-shares. As the market matures, you will get a better portfolio of investors, better stability, and better assessment of the fundamental market, thus leaving the pure momentum market. 21st Century: What do you think is the biggest difficulty for foreign funded institutions to explore the Chinese market? Emily Whiting: For foreign-funded institutions, they need to know everything about the whole market to explore the Chinese market. Chinese companies have their own uniqueness. We must understand how these companies operate and attach importance to them. This requires the help of language and culture. If there are no Mandarin speakers in the team, they may be lost in translation and completely unable to understand the Chinese market. To understand Chinese culture is to understand how Chinese people spend money and what they pursue. Only by understanding how Chinese culture is different can we judge which company can succeed. The same is true for other emerging markets. Reduce the impact of trade disputes 21st Century: When considering investing in the Chinese market, what risk factors do you most care about? Is Sino US trade an important factor? Emily Whiting: The Sino US trade issue is indeed one of the factors that we are very worried about, but what we are trying to do is to invest in individual companies and think about the opportunities for these companies to succeed. So for us, the biggest concern or risk of investing in China is actually the same as the biggest risk of investing in other emerging markets. Suppose that five years later, the company still exists, and its market share will increase? Is this a growing industry? Is the company's management doing the right thing with shareholder capital? Can they allocate capital wisely and have good capital discipline? This is our consideration. Although emerging markets do have risks from a political and economic perspective, the biggest risk we focus on is whether the company operates in the right way. We do not believe that the macro environment is unimportant. The political uncertainty in many emerging markets will bring pressure to our investment. But in the final analysis, we need to find the best companies in emerging markets. If you hold them for a long time, a good company will survive. You will find that during the economic downturn, the strong will become stronger. For China, if we cut off a major trading partner, we may have a hard time. So when we invest in A-shares, we look for companies that are not affected by trade issues in the domestic market of China. China has the largest population in the world. As long as we find a place where people are willing to spend money, it doesn't matter what happens outside. Of course, some companies may grow more slowly, or there may be some headwinds, but you will never find that all these companies are struggling, and there will certainly be opportunities. 21st Century: So you think that investment in emerging markets, including China, must seek certainty in uncertainty? Emily Whiting: Yes, the reason why trade issues are so concerned is that they are full of uncertainty. No one knows what will happen next. All kinds of guesses are worrying. But you will find that global investors want asset classes to recover, so they are willing to buy back. My view has always been that this long-term story will not change for investors. The 4.5 billion people living in emerging markets want a better standard of living. They will have more money in their pockets when they work overtime, and they will spend it. No matter what Donald Trump tweets or how the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, they will do so. For example, all these things in Sino US trade cannot prevent people from spending more money on Yili, because people want cream and yogurt. When we are all attracted by headlines and overwhelmed by noise, there are 4.5 billion people on the ground. Most of them, even your own friends, may never have heard of Donald Trump. Is this a disconnection worthy of our reflection? [Details]

Sina Financial News Recently, affected by the decline of US stocks, the Asia Pacific stock market generally fell heavily, and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 2600 points. Investors' confidence was challenged again. In this regard, Dongfang Red Asset Management believes that every market decline contains opportunities. The company always follows the principle of value investment, strives to find the best company, and maintains confidence in the long-term selection and follow-up of high-quality companies. It believes that the growth of enterprises can bring long-term good compound returns to investors. In terms of macroeconomic environment, the capital market has shown some impact since this year due to the superposition of domestic and foreign environmental factors such as Sino US trade friction and financial deleveraging. However, in the long run, the trend of globalization is unstoppable, and China's economy will maintain a stable and positive trend. With the further intensification of industry differentiation and enterprise competition, the market valuation level will shrink, and a number of outstanding enterprises with core competitiveness will show better investment opportunities. In terms of individual stock selection, Dongfang Hong will not change its long-term stock selection strategy due to short-term market changes. Although the short-term market environment is not optimistic, and it is impossible to predict the market rebound cycle, we still firmly practice value investment, focus on the long-term, still believe in high-quality enterprises with both "lucky industry+capable management+reasonable valuation", explore investment opportunities, and strive to earn long-term stable investment returns for investors. It is our long-term firm choice to grow together with the best enterprises and walk side by side, and it is also an effective way to obtain long-term returns for customers after experiencing hardships. Dongfang Red Asset Management believes that the short-term slump is a catharsis of extreme confidence in the early stage of the market. Looking forward to the future, such short-term slump will not happen frequently. At the same time, with the real release of short selling power, the market is also expected to usher in a turnaround. Dongfang Red Asset Management is optimistic about the long-term development of high-quality enterprises in China. It believes that many high-quality enterprises are striving to improve their core competitiveness, create opportunities for employees, and give play to entrepreneurship. It is worth long-term attention and exploring investment opportunities. The review of the top 20 public and private equity companies plummeted: A shares don't need to panic; the future trend of the US stock market is divergent [Details]

Since October, the domestic and overseas markets have adjusted significantly. Zhou Wenqun, the fund manager of Fidelity International A shares, said in an interview with China Securities Journal on October 11 that A shares may still experience a period of turbulence in the short term, but considering that A shares have digested the impact of some negative factors, their future performance will be better than that of American shares. Zhou Wenqun said that since October, due to the soaring yield of US government bonds, there has been a sharp fluctuation in overseas markets. Considering the current congestion of transactions, the adjustment made by the US market is not surprising. It is expected that there is still a long way to go for the adjustment and correction of US stocks, and the risks will be highlighted when the benefits of the tax reduction plan subside next year. "In the past cycles, when the U.S. stock market suffered a crash, no one was immune. Emerging markets, including China, usually performed worse than the U.S. market. In the short term, the A-share market may not be able to get rid of negative sentiment, but in this downward cycle, considering that the A-share market has digested the negative impact of weak export markets, its performance will be better than that of the U.S. stock market." She further said, China's economic growth has slowed down significantly in the past few months, and it is expected to introduce more policies, especially for the real economy. A few trading days after the festival, as the main channel for foreign capital to distribute A-shares, the capital going north showed a net outflow. In this regard, Zhou Wenqun said that in view of the increase in capital costs of overseas investors, the outflow of funds from the north was expected. This may continue for some time, especially if Treasury yields continue to rise. However, the Chinese market still has good investment opportunities and attraction. In the long run, the current situation will not change the enthusiasm of overseas investors for investing in the A-share market. As for the recent investment strategy, she said that the investment method has always focused on bottom-up stock selection, and will not change this criterion because of market conditions. [Details]

How to save A shares that fall but not rise? Source: Assassin's Information Black Thursday! Under the influence of the overnight US stock market crash, A-share market opened down without any suspense, and continued to decline in a more vicious way than the US stock market. The so-called "fusing bottom" 2638 did not encounter any resistance, nor did it resist at 2600 points. It was only slightly pulled back after falling to 2550. It is not uncommon for investors who experienced the stock market crash in 2015 to see the 1000 share limit fall again in Shanghai and Shenzhen. A-share investors are well informed and used to seeing big scenes. As early as 2005, they saw 998. In 2008, they saw a 12 month decline from 6124 to 1664. Even if they really reach 2025, it's no big deal. The US stock market was adjusted after hitting new highs, and A-share fell again after falling continuously; When American stocks rise, they don't follow the rise. When they fall, they will fall even more. What's wrong with A-shares? Is there any way to save them? Every time there is a sharp fall, there are many shareholders and experts calling for the rescue of the market, and there are various suggestions. Some experts suggested setting up a stabilization fund to rescue the market. In fact, this plan was used during the stock market crash in 2015, and CSF became the shareholder of almost all companies, but it did not prevent the stock market from falling further. Facts have proved that the stabilization fund can alleviate irrational emotions at most, but it has no real resistance to market trends. Some experts called for easing the proportion of insurance funds and pension funds invested in the stock market. As the A-share market is now, even if there is no restriction on all funds, will the funds come in to copy the bottom? Funds are profit driven, and different funds have different risk preferences. When there is a money making effect, all kinds of funds will pour into the stock market, and if there is no way, we should try to squeeze in; Without the effect of making money, funds will not come even if all doors are opened. Some experts called for a further increase in the proportion of cash dividends. The cash dividend should be a decision made by the shareholders of the listed company. There is no need to force a line. The dividend policy of companies in different stages of development and industries should be different, and investors will make their own choices. Buffett never supports dividends to shareholders, and few shareholders buy stocks for dividends, let alone pay taxes on dividends, but the dividend is really eliminated. In fact, there is no need to save the stock market. It's not so terrible to let him fall. If he can't fall, he won't fall again. 998 did not collapse, 1664 did not collapse, 2638 did not collapse, and now it will not collapse. The regulatory authorities have observed that the holding time of A-share investors has become longer and more rational. A-share investors can survive, and there will be no case of falling house prices hitting the sales department. However, when the stock market falls like this, it seems that the regulators are too indifferent to do anything. In fact, the supervisory level can still do something. 1、 Promptly introduce a substantial tax reduction policy The improvement of profitability of listed companies is the basis for the rise of share prices. The reason why US stocks continue to rise is that the earnings of US listed companies are really good. Apple's market value has risen to more than 1 trillion dollars in a row, and its P/E ratio is 20 times. The stock prices of A-share companies, especially GEM companies, continued to decline, mainly because the previous P/E ratio was too high, and valuation regression was normal. Under the current situation, it is impossible for the United States to stop the trade war in the external environment. It can only be adjusted in the internal environment. The most direct and effective way is to reduce taxes significantly. The Minister of Finance has said that substantial tax reduction measures are under study, and various versions of tax reduction plans are also circulating on the Internet. It is time for internal and external troubles. Let's introduce early to stimulate confidence. 2、 Relax the review and issuance mechanism for refinancing of listed companies Since the implementation of the refinancing policy and the new regulations on share reduction of listed companies in 2017, the refinancing scale of listed companies has declined in an avalanche. This year, many refinancing approvals of listed companies have failed to issue when they are due. Enterprise financing is a problem that the central government has always asked to solve. To some extent, listed companies are more difficult to finance than unlisted companies. In this situation, some adjustments should be made to support the development of the real economy. 1. Cancellation of the application of the new regulations on share reduction to investors participating in the non-public offering of listed companies The non-public issuance of listed companies is basically at market price. When the lock up period has been one year, investors are allowed to apply the new regulations on share reduction, which essentially extends the legal lock up period, increases the risk of investors and reduces their willingness to participate in the non-public issuance. 2. Cancel the regulation that three-year non-public offerings should be priced on the first day of the issuance period, and allow strategic investors to determine the price ceiling Strategic investors have participated in the non-public offering of listed companies, and the stock lock up period is up to three years. They have already taken a lot of investment risks. Although strategic investment should not be concerned about temporary fluctuations in stock prices, investment costs and investment risks should be controlled, and it should also be allowed to determine a price ceiling, beyond which it will no longer subscribe for shares. Under the current rules, it is unreasonable and unfair from a commercial point of view to decide to participate in the investment but not to determine the price. 3. It is suggested to shorten the review period of refinancing of listed companies If a listed company meets the legal conditions, there are no major problems in daily information disclosure, and there are no major problems in the standardized operation of the company, it is unnecessary for the CSRC to review it for a long time, and it is also unnecessary for the issuance and review committee to control the approval documents. Shortening the review period, so that both listed companies and investors have certain time expectations, is also good for curbing the financing impulse of listed companies. 4. It is suggested to cancel the restriction on refinancing supplementary working capital At present, the review of refinancing of listed companies is very strict on the review of raised funds used to supplement working capital, forcing listed companies to compile projects and completing the necessity and rationality of the CSRC's review of raised investment projects. The major securities markets in the world do not make special restrictions on the purpose of refinancing, which is required by listed companies and recognized by investors. The last thing we want to see is the direct intervention of the regulator in the market. Do not restrict any investors, including major shareholders and institutional investors, from selling stocks. The more restricted the selling, the more opportunities they will find to sell stocks. If it is not convenient for investors to make money, who will invest? Do not limit the issuing and trading prices any more, and let market participants make money; Trust the market, let the market balance itself, and there will be funds coming into the market when it falls to investment value. The stability and security of the banking system is more important to the national financial and economic security. The stock market is not very important in the entire economic system, so we can relax the stock market a little more and not make trouble. For ordinary shareholders, investor education should be carried out continuously: Cherish life and stay away from the stock market! It's also about watching green. It's hard to feel green when watching the full screen of stocks. It will be a lot of happiness when you see green mountains and green waters. Keep away from the stock market and improve the happiness index! [Details]

Why is China's stock market short and long? Why can't retail investors earn money? What about China's stock market? Professor Cao Fengqi, honorary director of the Center for Finance and Securities Research of Peking University, expressed some new views on the current stock market problem. Professor Cao Fengqi believes that the development of China's capital market today has played a great role in the development of China's economy and enterprises. However, China's capital market is also an irregular and imperfect market, and there are still some drawbacks. The biggest drawback is that investors cannot make money, especially retail investors. "In terms of new share issuance, once the stock market is bad, the CSRC will stop issuing, but will the stock market go up after the stop? After all previous new share issuance stops, the stock market may not rise, or rise in a short time, but eventually fall back." Cao Fengqi said. Cao Fengqi said that there are still many problems in China's stock market, such as short bull market, long bear market, false disclosure and financial fraud. He believes that the most fundamental reason for these problems is the quality of China's listed companies. "Improving the quality of listed companies is the cornerstone of stabilizing and developing China's stock market, and is the fundamental way to revitalize China's stock market. If the quality of listed companies is improved, their profitability is strong, and their investment returns are given, we will solve many problems, so that investors will have confidence." Cao Fengqi said. Cao Fengqi put forward seven suggestions on how to improve the quality of listed companies: First, continue to improve and perfect the corporate governance structure of listed companies. Including strengthening the construction of information disclosure; The company engages in internal employee stock ownership and management stock ownership to build the company into a community of shared future for shareholders, managers, operators and employees; Restrict major shareholders from cashing out and reducing their shares. Second, implement the cash dividend system. Listed companies should establish a transparent, fair and reasonable investor return system. Up to now, there are still 36 companies that have never received dividends since they were listed. These companies are called "iron roosters" and they are penniless. In fact, buying stocks is a long-term investment, with a dividend of 5%, which is at least higher than the bank deposit interest rate. In this way, people will have less incentive to speculate in the secondary market. Third, improve the issuance system. We should encourage and support the listing of enterprises with strong innovation capabilities and unicorn enterprises, and support the listing of enterprises in emerging industries and high-tech industries. The threshold requirements of GEM and SME Board on the profit conditions for enterprises to be listed should be relaxed. Enterprises in chip, biological, pharmaceutical and other industries have no profits or assets at the beginning. If you ask for these listing thresholds, you will kill the way for these enterprises to go public. Fourth, implement the buy back system. In the case of depressed stock market, listed companies can take the opportunity to buy back. After repurchasing, stocks can be stored or written off. When the stock is written off, the stock price will rise. The Securities Law also has provisions on repurchase. We have said this for more than 20 years, but it has not been implemented or cannot be implemented. Why can't we do that now? Many repurchases are taking place in the international market. Since this year, the stock repurchased and cancelled in the NASDAQ market alone has amounted to 600 billion US dollars. Fifth, improve the delisting system. We must really realize the delisting of the delisting, so that the stock market can live, the fittest can survive, and good companies can go public and bad companies can go down. If we do not improve the delisting system and excellent listed companies cannot enter, it will cause bad money to drive out good money. Sixth, encourage enterprises to expand their scale, adjust their structure and improve efficiency through restructuring and M&A. There are many companies that have achieved 1+1> through asset restructuring and M&A; 2 has achieved good results in changing production structure, enterprise structure and other aspects. China has to rely on this method to really restructure, really merge, really market. The so-called "real market" means not engaging in matchmaking. Seventh, form a healthy capital market credit culture system. In fact, a very important reason for the problems in China's capital market is the destruction of China's credit system and the principle of good faith, such as insider trading and false statements of listed companies. To form a healthy capital market culture, the most important thing is to establish a credit system and a reasonable credit evaluation system. Listed companies, accounting firms and law firms should strengthen the construction of integrity. (Source: Guanghua School of Management, Peking University Author: Professor Cao Fengqi) [Details]

Our intern reporter Luo Gengcheng reporter Xia Xin reports from Guangzhou After more than three months, A shares fell again. As of the closing on October 11, only 72 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were in the red, and 1056 stocks fell or were close to the limit (down more than 9.90%). On October 11, after opening low in the morning, the three major stock indexes hit new lows in this round of adjustment. As of the closing of the 11th day, the Shanghai Index had dropped below 2638 points, the low point since the circuit breaker in 2016, to close at 2583.46 points, a decline of 5.22%; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 7524.09, down 6.07%; The GEM Index closed at 1261.88, down 6.30%. At the same time, the whole industry is green. According to the flush data, according to the classification of Shenyi industry, 28 industries are all green, among which the computer, communication and comprehensive industries are among the top losers, down 8.49%, 8.35% and 7.57% respectively. Most institutions believe that at present, A-shares have entered the bottom area, with limited falling space. However, due to lack of confidence and long-term funds, there are still many uncertainties in the future of A-shares. "Fire" in US Stock Market Suffers A-share The trigger for today's A-share crash was the overnight crash in US stocks. In terms of overnight US stock performance, the Dow fell more than 800 points, down 3.15%, the biggest one-day decline in eight months; The Nasdaq fell 4.08%, the biggest one-day decline in more than two years. Liu Ankun, a strategic analyst of Rongtong Fund, said that the direct cause of today's A-share crash was the global risk asset panic caused by the overnight US stock crash. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, also told China Business News that "overnight, the US stock market fell sharply, and the Dow Jones index fell by more than 800 points, which led to a sharp sell-off in the Asia Pacific stock market today. In addition, the confidence of A-share itself is weak, which will magnify the negative when the negative occurs." It is understood that the yield of US Treasuries has been rising recently, especially the yield of 10-year US Treasuries, which are regarded as risk-free returns by global investors, has exceeded 3.22%. "Because the bond yield of the United States is the standard for global risk asset pricing, its sharp rise will cause great fluctuations in the mood of the whole market, thus causing extreme panic," said Yang Delong. Liu Ankun analyzed that, as far as US stocks are concerned, their sharp decline is directly related to interest rates. "At present, the interest rate in the United States has begun to develop in an adverse direction, mainly in two aspects: first, the interest rate increase has entered the second half. From the perspective of the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase, there may be another 3 to 4 interest rate increases in the future, and the latter half of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase is very adverse to risk assets; Second, the difference between the rate of return on corporate capital and the interest rate of corporate bonds narrowed relative to the beginning of the year, and the willingness of enterprises to invest began to be gradually restricted. " However, Guoshou Security Fund said that the sharp fall of US stocks sharply worsened the global risk appetite, including that of China. It was difficult for A-shares to be independent, but the decline exceeded the fundamental level. "Recently, the importance of domestic policy observation has increased significantly, and subsequent policy hedging such as domestic reserve ratio reduction will limit the space for further sharp declines." For the outlook of the next stage, people from the Research Center of Haomai Fund also said that in the macro aspect, we should actively focus on the marginal shift of economic policy. These include: the continuous shift of monetary policy, more active fiscal policy, the introduction and implementation of state-owned enterprise reform measures, the actual effect of tax cuts and fee reductions, and the successive introduction of subsidies in some industries. The market lacks confidence and long-term funds How do institutions view the future market trend after A-share returns to the limit of 1000 shares? Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund said that from the perspective of its own valuation level, A-share has already started to adjust before the US stock market, and is currently at the bottom of history. At the same time, the negative impact of trade frictions on economic fundamentals has been basically understood and digested by the market, and the probability of further falling beyond expectations is small. Cao Mingchang, fund manager of CEIBS Fund, said: "The current A-share market is very similar to that before the stock market bottomed out in November 2008. Many uncertainties at home and abroad have suppressed the stock market valuation. Investors are extremely depressed, and high-quality individual stocks have also fallen with the stock market. In the short term, investment is still facing painful choices, the formation of the market bottom is still unclear, and the market lacks confidence and long-term funds." Looking ahead to the future, people from the Macro Strategy Department of Bosera Fund believe that after the sharp decline of A-share, there may be less room for further decline in the short term, and it is difficult for global stock markets to continue to perform crisis mode. Following the stabilization of US stocks, A-shares may be expected to go out of the rebound market. HFT Fund said that the investment value of A-share is constantly emerging, whether in terms of the historical vertical comparison of A-share market itself or horizontal comparison with other major global markets. "The process of market adjustment is the process of constant risk release. What we see is that there are more and more investment targets with good risk return ratio." At present, what do you think about the industry configuration and institutions? People from Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund said that they maintained a cautious and optimistic view of the market trend, and the allocation was dominated by relatively stable industry sectors such as counter cyclical and undervalued sectors. Zhang Bowei, a strategy researcher of Huashang Fund, said that there are three types of industries that may be worth paying attention to: first, industries with high profit stability and low valuation advantages, such as banks, household appliances, food and beverage, etc; Second, some industries with stable dividend distribution in history or strong dividend expectation in the future; Third, from the perspective of medium and long term, the risk-free rate of return is generally easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the insurance sector that benefits from the current allocation of long-term asset returns at the asset side is also worth focusing on. (Editor: Xia Xin Checked by: Yan Jingning) [Details]

The review of the top 20 public and private equity companies plummeted: A shares don't need to panic; the future trend of the US stock market is divergent The sharp decline of A-share affects sentiment, and earnings and valuation remain to be seen in the long run China International Investment Morgan Fund A sharp adjustment began in the United States, like a gust of autumn wind sweeping across major capital markets around the world. Affected by this, on October 11, the Shanghai Composite Index not only fell below the previous low of 2638 points, but also broke through the 2600 point mark downward, with a decline of more than 5.22% by the end of the single day. Small and medium-sized market capitalization varieties also fell significantly, with the GEM index falling 6.3%, and the GEM index has fallen to a new low since May 2014. CIC Morgan Fund believes that the main reason for this decline is the recent rapid rise in the yield of US treasury bonds, which has led to the warming of global tightening expectations and affected short-term investment sentiment in the global capital market. However, in the long run, the profitability of A-share listed companies has remained stable, and the valuation has reached the historical bottom. The short-term adjustment of the market is providing investors with better long-term investment buying points. Look at history: sharp decline in valuation is often a good opportunity to add positions The sharp decline of the market has alarmed many investors, but from the historical data, in the stage of low overall valuation, the short-term sharp decline of the market is often a good opportunity to build positions in the medium and long term. Wind data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has experienced a one-day decline of more than 4.5% for 11 times in the history in the area where PE is less than 8 times. Statistics show that the average increase of the index in the three months after the sharp fall was 7.3%, and the average increase in the following year was 20%. △ Data source: Wind CIC Morgan Fund said that for investment, the shorter you look, the more interference factors will be. After you lengthen the observation scale, the factors affecting investment returns will be quickly simplified into a few variables such as earnings and valuation. The sharp decline will affect the short-term sentiment of the market, thus affecting the short-term valuation level. However, in the long run, the key to investment is still the economic fundamentals and corporate profits. However, when the market is at the bottom of the valuation area, the long-term trend of the economy has not changed, and the decline in short-term market valuation often becomes a medium - and long-term overweight opportunity. Look at A-share: the profit growth of enterprises in 2018 is expected to exceed 14% If the historical data provides another perspective to look at the sharp decline, then corporate earnings and A-share valuation level will bring investors more long-term and core confidence. CIC Morgan Fund said that although the profit growth of A-share enterprises slowed down in the first quarter, the mid report data showed that the profitability of A-share listed companies was still strong. The net profit of all A-shares in the first half of the year increased by 14.51% year on year, up from 13.95% in the first quarter report. Among them, the net profit growth of small and medium-sized market capitalization and growth stocks also remained above 17%. CIC Morgan Fund said that, from the perspective of the whole year, A-share listed companies are expected to maintain a profit growth of more than 14%, which also lays the foundation for long-term investment in the market. △ As of September 30, 2018, China's A-share market uses the CSI 300 index, and other countries and markets use the MSCI index. Data sources: MSCI/Datastream Bloomberg、Factset、Goldman Sach In terms of valuation, A-shares have fully entered the bottom area. Wind data shows that as of the end of September, the valuation level of the CSI 500 index has dropped to 19 times, which is significantly lower than 37 times in early 2016 and 22 times in January 2012, and is only a step away from the extreme value of 17 times in November 2008. △ Data source: wind, from January 15, 2007 to September 30, 2018 Li Bo, the proposed fund manager of CIC Morgan Core Select Fund, said that under the background of stable profitability and declining valuation level, the number of "profitable and reasonably valued" A-share listed companies increased. Data shows that as of the end of September, A-share China PEG< The proportion of 1% enterprises has risen to 32%, compared with 23% two years ago. Li Bo said that the improvement of this data shows that the whole A-share market is in a state of high investment cost performance, which also attracts a lot of OTC funds. Data shows that in the first half of the year, the amount of foreign capital going north through the Hong Kong stock interconnection mechanism reached 230 billion yuan. With A-shares being included in the MSCI Index and the FTSE Russell Index, larger overseas funds also began to focus on A-shares and overweight A-shares. [Details]

Sina Financial News Today, the A-share market fell sharply again, and the Shanghai Index broke through the previous "circuit breaker bottom" of 2638 points; The Shenzhen Composite Index and the GEM Index fell by more than 6%, hitting a new low in four years, and thousands of shares fell by the limit. China Merchants Fund believes that the sharp decline of A-shares today is mainly affected by overseas capital markets. The overnight decline in US stocks was significant, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 3.2% yesterday, the largest one-day decline since February; The Nasdaq fell 4.1%, the biggest one-day decline in more than two years; The S&P 500 index fell 3.3%. China Merchants Fund believes that the main reason for the overnight decline in U.S. stocks is that the recent rapid rise in U.S. bond yields has suppressed valuation, and the uncertainty of policy variables has increased near the mid-term elections, triggering further continuation of market turbulence. In addition, the long-term rise of the U.S. stock market has accumulated more profit margins. The combination of the above factors has become the main reason for the sharp turbulence in the U.S. stock market, and has quickly spread to major stock markets around the world. In fact, the global liquidity inflection point is approaching, and emerging markets are experiencing collective selling. The previously relatively strong Indian market has also seen a significant decline, and China, as an emerging market, has also been affected. Subsequently, China Merchants Fund believed that the A-share market risk continued to release, and the valuation became more attractive after a continuous sharp decline. The valuation process may be nearing the end. The current domestic economic policy is confirmed at the end of the year, which has been verified again by the central bank's reduction of the reserve ratio and the active voice of the finance minister. It is expected that other positive policies will continue to be introduced in the future, including the previous programmatic document to promote consumption and the specific policy measures that the ministries and commissions will continue to follow, as well as the tax and fee reduction policies of the Ministry of Finance. However, the factors that currently suppress the A-share market may still be repeated in the future. It is more clear that the trend needs to see the U.S. economy peak or the domestic economy bottom. Before this, we still focus on structural opportunities, including those with better earnings, higher dividend yield and reasonable valuation. (Investment must be cautious) [Details]

The review of the top 20 public and private equity companies plummeted: A shares don't need to panic; the future trend of the US stock market is divergent Global market quick review | The rise of US bond interest rate is only a short-term disturbance, and the fundamentals are still favorable for risky assets China International Investment Morgan Fund The yield of US debt rose rapidly in the short term, adding policy uncertainty and the escalation of Sino US trade friction, which led to the recent adjustment of US stocks and led to the decline of global stock markets. Historically, in the past 10 bear markets in the United States, there were 8 economic recessions. Now talking about recession is obviously incompatible with the current strong growth momentum of the US economy. Both the U.S. economy and corporate fundamentals, as well as the absolute level of U.S. bond yields, are currently in a favorable environment for U.S. stocks. Globally, valuations in A-share, East Asia and Europe are becoming more attractive. Although short-term periodic shock adjustment and the digestion of market pessimism may be unavoidable, after the release of panic, the market will focus on fundamental factors such as profitability again, and the fundamentals of the United States, Europe and China are still stable. There are always tides in the market, and investors should build portfolios from a long-term perspective. US bond yields rose rapidly, disturbing global stock markets In addition to the escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States, driven by the Federal Reserve's statement that "monetary policy stance is still loose", oil prices exceed $80 and inflation expectations rise, the US bond yield accelerated to rise after entering October, which has become the main reason for disturbing global stock markets in the near future. △ Source: Wande, China Investment Morgan, data range 2017.12.31-2018.10.10 After the US producer price index (PPI) rose month on month in September, the market was again worried about inflation. Behind investors' concern about the acceleration of inflation is the fear that the Federal Reserve will be forced to accelerate the pace of tightening, thus inhibiting the growth of the real economy and corporate profits. △ Source: Wande, China Investment Morgan, data range 2017.12.31-2018.10.10 On Wednesday, the US S&P 500 closed down 3.29%, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 4.08%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 3.15%, driving the European market down late. Asia has a close relationship with the US stock market, and today it is difficult to be alone. The following figure shows the performance of major global stock indexes since October against the background of rapid rise in US bond yields: △ Source: Wande, China Investment Morgan, data range 2018.10.01-2018.10.10 In addition to the upward trend in inflation expectations and US bond yields, the impact comes from the combination of transaction factors and market sentiment and policy uncertainty factors. The US stock market has experienced a long-term bull market, and the long-term rise has accumulated more profit margins. The selling caused by panic under crowded trading will bring further selling pressure, which will amplify the risk of market volatility. After understanding the reasons behind market fluctuations, investors must be more concerned about what to do next& nbsp; The recovery cycle is a rare bear market, and investment should have a long-term perspective In the research report released by Morgan Asset Management in mid September, it was pointed out that in the past 10 bear markets in the United States, there were 8 economic recessions. Now talking about recession is obviously incompatible with the current strong growth momentum of the U.S. economy: GDP growth hit a new high in nearly four years, unemployment rate fell to a low level in nearly 60 years, and most data such as consumption and PMI are positive. △ Source: Wande, China International Investment Morgan; The data is the quarter on quarter annual growth rate of real GDP, and the data range is 2014.06-2018.06 At present, the financial environment in the United States is still loose. By historical standards, the real interest rate was relatively low, only about 1% by the end of September, far below the long-term average of 2.0%. According to the research of Morgan Asset Management, in the past eight recessions in the United States, the real yield of 10-year treasury bonds was more than 2% three quarters of the time before the economic recession. He believes that the risk of US economic recession is still low in the next 12 to 18 months. △ Source: Wande, China International Investment Morgan; The data range is 1969.01-2018.09. The actual yield is calculated by subtracting the U.S. core CPI year-on-year data of the month from the 10-year US bond yield at the end of the month. Only in September 2018, the core CPI year-on-year data of August was used From the perspective of US stock valuation, in the context of stable fundamentals, although the valuation is high, it is only slightly higher than the historical average rather than a bubble. As of October 10, 2018, according to the consensus data of Bloomberg, the predicted P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index for 2018 is 17 times. In fact, all the gains in the US stock market since this year have been contributed by profits rather than valuation. At present, the strong economic fundamentals and corporate earnings data can still provide solid support for US equities. △ Source: Bloomberg, China Investment Morgan, data range: 2008.10.01-2018.10.10 In the short term, market sentiment and transaction level factors are still potential major disturbances, and periodic shock adjustment and market pessimism digestion may be unavoidable. However, after the release of panic, the market will focus on fundamental factors such as earnings again, and the fundamentals are still stable. For investors, the more important issue is the impact of this event on the long-term market outlook. CIC Morgan summarizes the following points: 1. The process of investment is like taking part in a marathon. Various uncontrollable factors and obstacles may affect the on-site performance, but the key to the final result still depends on the runner's "physical strength" and "health status". The impact of short-term risk events on asset returns is often limited. 2. The risk of economic recession in the United States is still low in the next 12 to 18 months. At present, the financial environment in the United States is still loose. Therefore, under the condition that global growth momentum continues to be strong, investors should continue to maintain their risk preference when allocating assets. 3. Outside the United States, the global economy also shows abundant momentum. The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is still above 50, reflecting steady growth. The unemployment rate of European economies continues to fall, the consumption environment is improving, and enterprise investment is gradually recovering. 4. It is normal for investment to fluctuate. Given the robust global macroeconomic environment, market adjustment should be seen as an opportunity to increase risk assets and strengthen investment deployment, and strive to benefit from the robust global growth environment. 5. As the tide rises and ebbs, investors should build portfolios from a long-term perspective. Pay close attention to the stock valuation and relocate on bargain hunting. [Details]

Harvest Fund Zhang Zili: Quantify stock selection with fundamentals and measure management portfolio dynamically The US stock market has been rising all the way this year, but there was turbulence during the National Day holiday. Therefore, the market worries: "Is there still room for the US stock market to continue to rise after a decade of" bull "? In this regard, Zhang Zili, the manager of Harvest American Growth Fund, said that it is still a good opportunity to invest in American stocks. This is the view that Harvest American Growth has been adhering to since its establishment in June 2013, and has been proved by the past five years. According to Wind data, from the beginning of this year to September 28, Harvest's US growth (RMB) net value growth rate, which mainly invests in US market growth stocks, was 24.06%, ranking in the top 6% of similar funds. US stocks have good support but need to be alert to risks "The fluctuation of the U.S. stock market during the National Day holiday is mainly due to the technical impact brought by the short-term rapid rise of the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds. In nature, the decline of U.S. stocks is a temporary short-term rapid process, which is driven by technology rather than fundamentals. The operating environment, main business, cost, profitability and other dimensions of the US listed companies have not changed substantially, and the stock market has no fundamental problems. " Zhang Zili analyzed the decline of US stocks during the National Day holiday. Zhang Zili, who has 21 years of experience in public offering, is currently the managing director of Harvest Fund, and is in charge of the research on artificial intelligence, quantitative investment and investment in major asset allocation of Harvest Fund. He said: "Stocks are the most important choice in overseas asset allocation, and the core of overseas stocks is American stocks." However, the U.S. stock market has continued its "bull market" for nearly ten years. Taking the U.S. S&P 500 index as an example, according to Wind data, the U.S. stock market rose more than 300% from March 6, 2009 to October 8, 2018. The market inevitably worries: "Is there still room for the US stock market to continue to rise after a decade of 'bull'?" Zhang Zili said: "We can't use traditional cycle theory and thinking methods to measure the length of this bull market in the US stock market. The quantitative easing environment, gradually normalized monetary policy, as well as the continuously improving macroeconomic data and corporate profitability in the US are all the 'wheels' driving the US stock market. The profitability of US stocks that continue to recover will be enough to absorb the rising market price, and the valuation level of US stocks remains at the historical average. " However, Zhang Zili also pointed out the current risks in the US stock market: "The global trade conflicts launched by the Trump government, the US trade protectionism and the current trade contraction are not conducive to the further growth of the real economy, which are one of the major sources of macro risks in the US stock market. Another is the "upward risk", which is the risk that people fail to seize this investment opportunity. " Dig out excellent targets with fundamental quantification "Obtaining high returns after risk adjustment" is the most important part of Zhang Zili's investment logic, but it is not easy to do so. "We focus on looking for high growth industries, and then look for high-quality companies. These high-quality companies have some things in common, they represent the direction of emerging markets in the future; their profitability is high growth; their valuation is relatively reasonable and their risks are controllable," said Zhang Zili, "Therefore, our methodology mainly focuses on the quantification of fundamentals. For example, we use the company's financial data to see whether these companies are very healthy, whether they are of high quality, and whether their profitability standards, growth standards, and valuation are relatively good." These are just the basic methodologies of Zhang Zili and his team. In actual operation, they have also prepared an operational model that can deal with complex markets. For example, under the guidance of rigorous modern behavioral finance theory and long-term practical experience summary, Zhang Zili and his team have developed a multi factor stock selection model that can systematically identify relevant investment opportunities. In application, they timely improve the parameter setting and factor selection of the model according to the changes in the market environment to ensure the continuous effectiveness of the operational model. Of course, finding investment opportunities and targets is only the first step, and managing targets is the most important. In particular, volatility is the norm in the stock market. However, for Zhang Zili, this market fluctuation caused by emotions is not the key consideration when they manage their portfolios. "We will measure each target in the portfolio, whether their growth has reached the inflection point, and whether the valuation is too high, which we will have a judgment," said Zhang Zili. Market and performance are always important yardsticks to test whether the method is effective. According to Wind data, Harvest American Growth Stock, managed by Zhang Zili, has achieved an annualized return of 14.55% from its establishment on June 14, 2013 to September 28, 2013, with a total return of 105.20%. [Details]

Sina Finance News On October 11, yesterday, the US stock market fell rapidly collectively. Today, the two markets jumped into the sky and opened low. The Shanghai Index broke through the previous "circuit breaker bottom" of 2638 points shortly after the opening. As of the closing, the Shanghai Index reported 2583.46 points, down 5.22%, and the GEM Index reported 1261.88 points, down 6.30%. In this regard, Zhang Bowei, a Chinese merchant fund, said that, on the whole, investors may be too pessimistic about the impact of domestic economic demand and external risk events, and also have concerns about the relative long-term earnings outlook of A-share assets. Reflected in the A-share market, based on the measurement of the domestic risk-free return rate and the equity risk premium in the mature market, the current A-share market as a whole has significantly deviated from the reasonable valuation level. From the perspective of market trend, Zhang Bowei, a strategy researcher of Huashang Fund, analyzed that there are three types of industries that may be worth paying attention to. The first is banking, household appliances, food and beverage and other industries. The decline of these industries is relatively small. Under extreme market conditions, their advantages of high profit stability and low valuation have begun to manifest. Details are as follows: Zhang Bowei, China Merchants Fund: Three industries of A-share adjustment affected by emotions deserve attention Today (October 11), the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Composite Index and the GEM Index all experienced a significant downward adjustment. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 2638 points, the lowest point during the circuit breaker period in 2015, and finally closed at 2583.46 points, down 5.22%; The Shenzhen Composite Index and GEM Index fell by more than 6%, and the market sentiment was relatively low. In response to today's market situation, Zhang Bowei, a strategy researcher of Huashang Fund, pointed out that the volatility of peripheral markets has increased recently, and the CBOE volatility index has risen by more than 50% this week, which has triggered the concentrated selling of risky assets by investors. At the same time, affected by negative factors such as the continuous narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, equity A's weekly performance has been sluggish. On the whole, current investors may be too pessimistic about the impact of domestic economic demand side and external risk events, and also have concerns about the relative long-term earnings outlook of A-share assets. Reflected in the A-share market, based on the measurement of the domestic risk-free return rate and the equity risk premium in the mature market, the current A-share market as a whole has significantly deviated from the reasonable valuation level. From the perspective of market trend, Zhang Bowei, a strategy researcher of Huashang Fund, analyzed that there are three types of industries that may be worth paying attention to. The first is banking, household appliances, food and beverage and other industries. The decline of these industries is relatively small. Under extreme market conditions, their advantages of high profit stability and low valuation have begun to manifest. In fact, since the opening of the Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong Stock Connect, relatively speaking, the variety of funds preferred to go north belongs to the traditional leading target in finance and consumption. In the long run, with the acceleration of the opening up of the capital market, the trend of continuous net inflow of overseas funds is expected to continue, and the investment value of the traditional high dividend blue chip stocks of A shares will be increasingly recognized by the market, against the background that the valuation of A shares has already had significant investment value. It is undeniable that in extreme market conditions, capital may flow out of emerging markets, and some follow through transactions will also increase the volatility of the "Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong Stock Connect" concept stocks. However, in the long term, its relative returns are relatively clear. Secondly, against the background of still depressed market sentiment, Zhang Bowei, a strategy researcher of Huashang Fund, believes that some varieties with relatively stable historical dividends or strong future dividend expectations should be paid attention to, such as leading companies in banks, coal, steel, utilities and some consumer goods industries. Third, from the perspective of medium and long term, the risk-free rate of return is generally easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the insurance sector that benefits from the current allocation of long-term asset returns at the asset side is also worth focusing on. [Details]

On October 11, Sina Finance News, the two stock markets opened at a low altitude. The Shanghai Index broke through the previous "circuit breaker bottom" of 2638 points shortly after the opening. As of the closing, the Shanghai Index reported 2583.46 points, down 5.22%, and the GEM Index reported 1261.88 points, down 6.30%. In this regard, Dacheng Fund said that under the circumstances of weak global market and sharp decline of American shares, it is difficult for A-shares to be independent, while the sharp decline of American shares is mainly due to the rising yield of government bonds, which has triggered market concerns. A shares are different from American shares. At present, the overall valuation level of A shares is near the lowest level in history. Due to the adjustment of financial assets, the yield of American bonds has stopped rising, which is undoubtedly good for the domestic bond market. Details are as follows: Dacheng Fund: US stocks drag down A-shares, and the advantages of bond market appear Black Thursday. Influenced by the sharp fall of US stocks, the two markets jumped to a low opening today. The Shanghai Index broke through the previous "circuit breaker bottom" of 2638 points shortly after the opening, and then fell further. The Shanghai Index fell below 2600 points in the afternoon, with the deepest intraday decline of more than 6%. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the GEM Index fell by more than 6%, hitting a new low in four years. More than 1800 shares in the two markets fell by more than 9%, and thousands of shares fell by the limit, with only 60 stocks rising, The increase was less than 1%. Compared with the previous trading day, the turnover of the two markets was significantly larger. Dacheng Fund's analysis shows that under the circumstances of weak global market and sharp decline of US stocks, it is difficult for A-shares to be independent, while the sharp decline of US stocks is mainly due to the market concern caused by the rising yield of treasury bonds. However, Dacheng Fund believes that A-shares are different from American shares. At present, the overall valuation level of A-shares is near the historical lowest level. Under the pressure of deleveraging in the first half of the year, the financing interest rate of real enterprises has risen significantly, and the probability of continuing to rise in the future is small. Moreover, the recent actions of the central bank also indicate that the domestic monetary policy will remain independent. In the bond market, the US stock market recorded the largest decline since February, and the S&P 500 index plunged to the lowest level in three months. The sharp adjustment of risky assets led to the decline of the US bond yield, and the 10-year US bond yield fell back to 3.16%; Inventories rose, and oil prices also fell sharply. On Wednesday, NYMEX crude oil futures closed down 3.11% at 72.63 dollars/barrel; Brent crude oil futures closed 2.82% lower at 82.60 dollars/barrel, both hitting new two-week closing lows. Dacheng Fund believes that due to the adjustment of financial assets, the US bond yield has stopped rising, which is undoubtedly good for the domestic bond market. On October 7, the People's Bank of China announced the reduction of reserve ratio, and the short-term interest rate further declined after the festival. However, the medium and long term interest rate bonds still maintained a narrow and volatile market due to concerns about US debt and inflation. With the decline of US debt yield, the space for the decline of domestic medium and long term interest rate bonds also opened. [Details]

Top 10 public offering reviews plummeted: A shares don't need to panic; the future trend of US shares is divergent Sina Finance News On October 11, it was reported that the Shanghai Stock Index fell by more than 5% today, and all global stock markets fell sharply. Sina Fund invited Pengyang Fund to interpret. Pengyang Fund believes that, first of all, the real economy is relatively depressed in the big background. Secondly, the deleveraging policy impacted the balance sheets of enterprises and residents. Third, in terms of the liquidity of A-share itself, it is also affected by deleveraging and strict financial supervision, and has not yet reached a balanced state. The short-term trigger factor is still the overnight sharp fall of high US stocks, which triggered the global stock market shock, and the risk appetite was impacted to some extent. Looking ahead, under the current fundamentals and policy mix, the macro-economy is expected to reach the bottom in the next one to two quarters. Globally, both the valuation and the trend of the A-share market are at a relatively low historical level. In the medium and long term, the probability of falling with the external market is very low, but it may be closer to the bottom. In terms of industry sector, Pengyang Fund is optimistic about leading companies in various industries with long-term growth space. After considerable valuation adjustment, these companies have entered the desirable allocation range. It is suggested to find a target with policy orientation, huge industry space and core competitiveness. The following is the interpretation of the original text: Pengyang Fund - comments on market crash [Market performance] On October 11, the Shanghai Index fell 5.22% to 2583.46 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 6.07% to 7524.09 points, and the GEM Index fell 6.30% to 1261.88 points. The turnover in Shanghai Stock Exchange was 170058 million yuan, and that in Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 188.563 billion yuan. The total turnover in the two markets was 358.621 billion yuan, a larger increase than 236.04 billion yuan in the previous trading day. Influenced by the sharp fall of the external market, the two stock markets jumped short and opened low today. The Shanghai Index soon fell below the previous "circuit breaker bottom" of 2638 points, and then showed a narrow range of shocks. The short positions in the market continued to rise, and the two stock markets further declined. The Shanghai Index fell below 2600 points in the afternoon, with the deepest intraday decline of more than 6%. The Shenzhen Chengdu Index and the GEM Index fell by more than 6%, hitting a new low in four years. More than 1800 stocks in the two stock markets fell by more than 9%, Thousands of shares fell by the limit, with only 60 stocks rising, and the increase was less than 1%. In terms of sectors, the industry sector fell across the board, with communications equipment, domestic software, securities firms, paper making, environmental protection, and military industry falling by more than 7%, and banking, coal, and gas sectors falling by more than 4%. Cause Analysis First of all, look at the background. The real economy is relatively sluggish. Secondly, the deleveraging policy impacted the balance sheets of enterprises and residents. Third, in terms of the liquidity of A-share itself, it is also affected by deleveraging and strict financial supervision, and has not yet reached a balanced state. The short-term trigger factor is still the overnight sharp fall of high US stocks, which triggered the global stock market shock, and the risk appetite was impacted to some extent. Market Outlook Macroeconomic and microeconomic data show that, in addition to the real estate industry chain, the economy is still relatively resilient, and there is no risk of hard landing in the short term. Since the Executive Meeting of the State Council on July 4 established the keynote of stabilizing the economy, monetary policies and fiscal and tax policies have been actively shifted, especially in terms of tax cuts and fee reductions. It is expected that there will be a considerable amount of favorable policies. We still believe that under the current fundamentals and policy mix, the macro-economy is expected to reach the bottom in the next one to two quarters. Globally, both the valuation and the trend of the A-share market are at a relatively low historical level. In the medium and long term, the probability of falling with the external market is very low, but it may be closer to the bottom. From the perspective of investment, we will still focus on leading companies in various industries with long-term growth space. These companies have entered the desirable allocation range after undergoing considerable valuation adjustments. It is suggested to find a target with policy orientation, huge industry space and core competitiveness. [Details]

Related reading Sina Finance News On October 11, it was reported that the Shanghai Stock Index fell by more than 5% today, and all global stock markets fell sharply. Agricultural Bank of China Huili Fund believes that the rise in oil prices, the sharp fall in US stocks and other factors have triggered a sharp fall in A-shares. Looking ahead to the future, under the constraints of internal and external environment, it is expected that A-share will still be dominated by shocks and weakness, focusing on monetary policy, social finance data, etc. The following is the original comment of ABC Huili Fund: [Comment time] Break down and fuse the bottom! A shares once again fell by the limit of 1000 shares Affected by the overnight sharp drop in US stocks, today's A-share market opened lower and fell further in volume. The Shanghai Index once fell more than 6% in the session, down more than 1000 points from its peak of 3587.03 this year. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had dropped 5.22% to 2583.46 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index had dropped 6.07% to 7524.09 points, and the GEM Index had dropped 6.3% to 1261.88 points, with more than 1000 stocks falling by the limit. 1. International market factors: During the National Day holiday, the oil price exceeded $80, triggering US inflation expectations. As a result, the US bond yield determined by nominal economic growth (real GDP+inflation expectations) exceeded 3.2% at one stroke, leading to the continuous decline of global risk assets, the compression of equity market valuations, and the overall correction of emerging markets. Especially last night's sharp decline in the United States triggered a significant decline in the A-share market. In addition, when the US, Canada and Mexico reached a trade agreement, Sino US trade friction concerns further intensified, risk appetite declined, and technology sectors such as computers and electronics declined. 2. Domestic market factors: From the perspective of A-share itself, the medium and long-term economic downturn, the new normal of the financial environment (low social financing growth rate), and the medium and long-term dilemma of the Sino US trade war have all been reflected in the decline in the past eight months, but these problems themselves have not improved marginally, so the medium and long-term pattern of the overall market bottom shocks has not changed. 3. Future outlook: Under the constraints of internal and external environment, it is expected that the overall A-share market will still be dominated by shocks and weakness. The following factors can be observed to boost the market: 1) The policy's role in boosting risk appetite. It is expected that under the downward pressure of the economy, policies such as stimulating domestic demand and monetary easing will continue to be introduced, effectively stabilizing market risk appetite. 2) Whether the growth rate of social finance can stabilize and recover, concerns about the downward rate of the economy have eased. 3) Tracking the progress of the trade war. [Details]

Sina Finance News On October 11, the Asia Pacific stock market fell sharply. The three major A-share indexes all fell by more than 5% at the close, and the Shanghai index fell by 2600 points. China Financial Fund believes that the US stock market may have reached its peak and will enter a downward channel next. The global stock market plummeted On October 10, European and American stock markets fell sharply. The US S&P 500 index fell 3.29%, the biggest one-day decline since February. The Dow Jones fell 3.15%, the lowest close since August 16. NASDAQ fell 4.08%, a new closing low since July 3. Technology stocks led losses. Europe's FTSE Pan European Performance 300 Index closed 1.43% lower. Germany's DAX 30 index closed 2.21% lower. The French CAC 40 index closed 2.11% lower. The FTSE 100 closed 1.27% lower. WTI crude oil futures contract for November ended 2.39% lower at 73.17 dollars/barrel. Brent December crude oil futures closed 2.25% lower at 83.09 dollars/barrel. On October 10, the yield of US 10y treasury bonds once climbed to 3.25%. With the sharp fall of risky assets and the rise of risk aversion, the yield of treasury bonds fell again. The impact of US stocks on A-shares needs dynamic analysis: 【1】 Psychological impact. 【2】 Influence A-share through valuation system. US technology stocks led the decline, while China concept stocks fell sharply, which would lead to the valuation adjustment of similar companies in the A-share market. However, the growth stocks in the A-share market have fallen for three years, and the valuation has dropped a lot. 【3】 Influence A-share through international capital flow. At the beginning of the decline of US stocks, international investment institutions may sell risky assets, including A-shares, in order to obtain liquidity and hedge. This happened once from the end of January to the beginning of February 2018, when American stocks plummeted and international investors sold A-shares, resulting in A-shares plummeting. Subsequently, the leverage portfolio and the pledge order were subject to strong equality, which further infected the risk and expanded the decline. In the medium and long term, with the decline of US stocks forming a trend, international investors should consider risk aversion because of the decline of global risk assets. Funds will flow to countries and regions with relatively low valuations, and the pressure of A-share capital outflow will slow down. The pressure on RMB depreciation will also drop. 【4】 Long term impact on policy. Equity assets account for a relatively high proportion of the assets of American enterprises and residents. In the past 10 years, the wealth benefits brought by the bull market in the United States have stimulated consumption and investment. If the US stock market bears, the negative wealth effect will worsen the balance sheets of enterprises and households, thus hitting the investment and demand of the US private sector. This will lead to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, a decline in the dollar index, and a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The extent to which the US economy is affected depends on the extent and speed of the decline of US stocks. If the impact is large, the tough posture of the United States in the trade war is expected to soften, and Sino US relations are expected to ease. On the whole, in the short term, the decline of US stocks has a great negative impact on A-shares. It is suggested that we should be cautious in operation to avoid risks. (Source: China Financial Fund Research Department; the original title: China Financial Fund Market Comments on October 11: US stocks or A-shares have seen a large peak in the short term) Related reading: Fund companies interpret the sharp decline on October 11 Wang Hongyuan, a public offering tycoon and Qianhai open-source fund: the logic of large decline does not change Wells Fargo Fund Comments: Small Probability of US Stocks Turning to Bear, Simple Administration, Tax and Fee Reduction, Good A Shares CCB Fund: A-share should follow the global market to adjust the current time point without panic Jingshun Great Wall Fund: The sharp decline of US stocks has dragged down the market, which still needs to be cautious in the short term Everbright Prudential Fund: Global risk release A shares need not be overly pessimistic   [Details]

Sina Financial News; Today (October 11), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.22%. Wells Fargo Fund believes that the culprit is the US stock market. This sharp decline in US stock market is the same as that at the beginning of the year, because the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates and shrink the balance sheet, the yield of US debt soared in the short term, and the valuation was suppressed. However, the probability of US stock market turning into a bear market is small. As for A-shares, along with the policy statement of simplifying administration, reducing taxes and fees, and the voice of supporting private economy, it may give A-shares a "strong shot". The following is the original text: Zhenlong Chess Game, No Break, No Stand -- Comments on the closing of Wells Fargo Fund's A-share market There is a Zhenlong chess game in the Eight Dragon Ministries. Many young people can't break it for a long time. Only Xuzhu happened to block his eyes, and then he created a grand road. Since the beginning of this year, internal and external factors have repeatedly undermined the vitality of the A-share market. Repeated breakthroughs have failed, much like a Zhenlong chess game in the middle. Today (October 11), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.22%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 6.07%, and the GEM Index fell 6.30%, dragged down by the sharp drop in US stocks last night. However, if the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 2600 point mark, would it be like a false bamboo blocking its own eyes and opening up a new prospect for the future trend of A-shares? After all, opportunities fall out, no break, no stand. From the perspective of the culprit US stocks, this sharp decline was the same as that at the beginning of the year, because the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates and shrink the balance sheet, US bond yields soared in the short term, and valuations were suppressed. In the past decade, earnings and valuation have been the "two wheel drive" of American stock market bulls. At present, although the space for valuation improvement is increasingly limited, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still sound, and large-scale tax cuts and share repurchases are still supporting earnings per share. Although the volatility of "single wheel drive" U.S. stocks will increase significantly, the probability of turning into a bear market is still small. The dismal market performance will indeed erode confidence, but after Zhenlong's chess game is broken, investors may want to wait and see whether the recent policy statements of streamlining, tax reduction and fee reduction, as well as the voice of support for private economy, will give A shares a "shot in the arm". Related reading: Fund companies interpret the sharp decline on October 11 Wang Hongyuan, a public offering tycoon and Qianhai open-source fund: the logic of large decline does not change Wells Fargo Fund Comments: Small Probability of US Stocks Turning to Bear, Simple Administration, Tax and Fee Reduction, Good A Shares CCB Fund: A-share should follow the global market to adjust the current time point without panic Jingshun Great Wall Fund: The sharp decline of US stocks has dragged down the market, which still needs to be cautious in the short term Everbright Prudential Fund: Global risk release A shares need not be overly pessimistic [Details]

Sina Finance News, October 11, reported that A-shares fell by more than 5% today. According to the interpretation of CCB Fund, the direct catalyst for the recent market adjustment is the negative news disturbance in the overseas market during the holiday. This is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, thanks to the strong economic data in the United States and the rising oil prices, which have pushed up inflation expectations, the global equity markets have all declined, with more impact on emerging markets. This global stock market decline may be transmitted to A shares through connectivity and QFII capital outflow. Second, with the sharp rise of US debt, the interest margin between China and the United States narrowed significantly to 38 bp, close to the lowest level in 11 years. Superimposed by the directional reduction of the central bank's reserve ratio, the differentiation of monetary policies between China and the United States put pressure on the short-term RMB exchange rate. Third, Vice President Pence of the United States delivered a speech in Washington on October 4, which covered many sensitive topics. Therefore, in the long run, the game between China and the United States may spread from economic and trade issues to other fields, thus inhibiting market risk appetite. Jianxin Fund said, however, the current time point should not be overly panicked. In terms of monetary policy, the current policy mix is not to follow the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase+targeted RRR reduction, in order to "stabilize the economy". From the time point of RRR reduction, it is helpful to hedge against the disturbance caused by the soaring US bond yields during the holiday and protect market expectations. Therefore, loose money and credit support have supported the systematic valuation of the stock market and marginally increased policy guidance. Although there is no performance improvement in the short term, sentiment repair is conducive to increasing structural investment opportunities. Therefore, short-term A shares may follow the global market repeatedly. The core focus is on US debt volatility and other emerging market indicators. The main line of medium - and long-term investment tracks the promotion and direction of domestic stable growth policies and seeks institutional opportunities. More fund companies interpret the sharp decline on October 11: Wang Hongyuan, a public offering tycoon and Qianhai open-source fund: the logic of large decline does not change Jingshun Great Wall Fund: The sharp decline of US stocks has dragged down the market, which still needs to be cautious in the short term [Details]

Sina Finance News, October 11, reported that today's A-share market plummeted, and investors questioned whether Wang Hongyuan, a public offering tycoon and co chairman of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, had made the right decision to increase his position comprehensively before the National Day. In this regard, Wang Hongyuan said on the 11th that the logic of "the chess game is clear and the position is increased comprehensively" has not changed. Wang Hongyuan said, "Our logic is clear and firm, and has not changed. I believe that in China's 40 years of reform and opening up, the world's two biggest beneficiaries are China and the United States, and the common interests of everyone far outweigh differences. Rationality is an inevitable trend. From the perspective of the medium - and long-term economic and trade relations between China and the United States, although we are experiencing difficulties, we believe that reason will eventually overcome emotion. China and the United States can only win together, and the current situation of "lose together" will force the two countries to return to the path of win-win. " Profile: Wang Hongyuan, from August 1999 to March 2009, successively served as the fund manager of Tianyuan, Kaiyuan, Nanwen No. 2, and the 101 stock portfolio fund manager of China National Social Security Fund. Later, he served as the investment director and deputy general manager of China Southern Fund. In 2009, he left China Southern Fund and transferred to the chief investment officer and head of proprietary business of CITIC Securities. At the end of 2013, he returned to public offering, joined Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund and served as the co chairman, promoted the reform of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund's business unit system and equity incentive, and made Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund develop rapidly and attract attention. The following is a transcript of the question and answer: Question: Today, due to the sharp fall of US stocks, A-shares also fell sharply. Has the logic of "clear chess game and overall position increase" that you put forward before changed? What do you think of today's market crash? Wang Hongyuan, co chairman of Qianhai Kaiyuan: Our logic is clear and firm, and has not changed. I believe that in China's 40 years of reform and opening up, the world's two biggest beneficiaries are China and the United States, and the common interests of everyone far outweigh the differences. Rationality is an inevitable trend. From the perspective of the medium - and long-term economic and trade relations between China and the United States, although we are experiencing difficulties, we believe that reason will eventually overcome emotion. China and the United States can only win together, and the current situation of "lose together" will force the two countries to return to the path of win-win. Related reading: Qianhai Kaiyuan Wang Hongyuan proposes to increase the position comprehensively: future uncertainty risk is controllable More fund companies interpret the sharp decline on October 11: Top 10 public offering reviews plummeted: A shares don't need to panic; the future trend of US shares is divergent CCB Fund: A-share should follow the global market to adjust the current time point without panic Jingshun Great Wall Fund: The sharp decline of US stocks has dragged down the market, which still needs to be cautious in the short term [Details]

The review of the top 20 public and private equity companies plummeted: A shares don't need to panic; the future trend of the US stock market is divergent Affected by the sharp adjustment of American stocks overnight, the opening of A-shares, Hong Kong stocks and the Asia Pacific stock markets all experienced a significant adjustment. Min Liangchao, the chief macro and strategist of HSBC Jinxin, briefly commented as follows: First of all, the US stock market has been sluggish for nearly a decade, and EPS (earnings growth) is the main driver. However, since the beginning of the past two years, valuation has gradually replaced earnings as the main driving force for the bull market in US stocks, and its contribution to the growth of US stocks has once risen to nearly 50%. Looking forward to the future, the contributions of these two driving forces to US stocks are likely to gradually turn negative. At the same time, the duration of this round of economic growth cycle is the second longest in the history of the United States. Considering the linkage of the economic cycle between China and the United States, the adjustment of China's economy will inevitably affect the subsequent performance of the United States economy. In the case of doubt about future economic growth, the US stock market may have the risk of "Davis double kill". Secondly, the important reason for this round of short-term adjustment of US stocks is the rapid rise of US bond yields in the near future. At present, the yield of 10-year US government bonds has risen from 2.8% to 3.2%, further reducing the risk premium of US stocks. At present, the risk premium level of US stocks has shrunk to the lower position of negative 1.5 times of the historical average standard deviation. Moreover, as the mid-term elections in the United States approach and policy variables continue, the uncertainty of the United States market is also increasing. However, it is still inconclusive whether the US stock market has peaked. First, although the valuation of US stocks is on the high side, it is only slightly higher than the historical average and has not reached the bubble stage. Second, historically, the big top of US stocks corresponds to the negative term spread of US bonds. At present, the 10-year term spread minus the one-year term spread of US bonds still has 50+bps. Third, the U.S. economy is still resilient, and the impact of China's economic cycle adjustment on the United States also needs some time to reflect, so the probability of the U.S. economic cycle ushering in an inflection point in half a year will rise significantly. Impact on A-share: The impact of this round of US stock adjustment on A shares is different from that of February at the beginning of the year. After more than half a year of adjustment, the risk of A shares has been fully released. In two dimensions, 1) There is indeed a risk of foreign capital withdrawal in the short term. Due to the rise in US bond yields, overseas funds will systematically reduce the global stock allocation, and A-shares are hardly an exception. 2) In the medium term, it has a positive impact on the domestic economy and A-shares. After the US economy peaked, the pressure of domestic exchange rate depreciation was reduced, the policy focus was more focused on the domestic economy, and long-term funds would choose to allocate more emerging market economies. At the same time, as the focus of the US policy is more focused on domestic issues, the game between China and the US trade will also ease. Therefore, at present, the medium-term impact is limited, and investors only need to deal with short-term shocks. For A-shares, short-term fluctuations may provide better buying points. In the medium and long term, the adjustment of the US stock market is to provide a breathing opportunity for domestic policies. The valuation of A-share is now at a relative historical bottom, with a high long-term allocation value. [Details]