Article/Ai Tangming, Chief Commentator of Sina Finance[ micro-blog ]
Under the double attack of the sharp drop of the US stock market and the receding of the hot spot, A-share finally fell, failing to get out of the previous counter offensive drama of opening low and moving high
In fact, the main reason is that the second point is that all major hot spots have cooled down, the grand occasion of 100 share trading is no longer, small and medium-sized enterprises have all dropped nearly 3%, and small cap stocks have turned around to become the driving force.
The hottest recent venture capital concepts, including Xiong'an New Area, which rose yesterday, and the concept of state-owned enterprise reform, have all declined collectively. Venture capital started to split and fall back yesterday, but Xiong'an and National Reform are both one-day tours, which shows that hot spots without substantial support are difficult to sustain, and they belong to hot money.
In fact, the biggest problem at present is whether the hot money has run away? Is the speculation of feast and meal market over?
It is somewhat arbitrary to judge that hot money has run away based on only one day's pullback. Today, the funds collectively flow out of small cap stocks. In addition to the sharp drop in the external market, it is more because of the recent large increase. When the market is facing the risk of pullback, funds choose to pocket.
Yesterday, Lao Ai put forward the idea of "never leaving the table". When the wedding is not over and the wedding banquet continues to serve food, the guests will change to eat at different tables, or even eat at other weddings, but few people leave the hotel.
As for judging when the wedding banquet will end, three o'clock is enough. First, everyone is full, second, the hotel is closing time, and third, force majeure forces the wedding banquet to end.
From the current point of view, none of these three points has appeared. This rebound has only been a month. Except for some hot sectors, many stocks have not risen very high.
As for force majeure, it is unlikely that there will be major bad news in China. Foreign countries mainly look at American stocks, but unless the American stocks have plummeted in a row, triggering a global chain reaction, the sharp decline in one day or two will not change the medium-term trend of A shares.
Especially for the hot money who is the initiator of this wave of market, it has tasted the initial sweetness. Who will easily withdraw? And for the management, although it is still carrying out daily supervision, it is generally relatively loose, and there is no big stick to drive away hot money. After all, the crisis of equity pledge has not been completely lifted, and it will also peak in the fourth quarter. Hot money still has value for use.
So for hot money, it is possible to make a comeback at any time. Today's sharp fall has not completely broken up the market popularity. Once hot money is hyped again, everyone will follow suit. Yesterday's Xiong'an and the concept of state-owned enterprise reform is the best example.
In the evening, we can continue to pay attention to the trend of the US stock market, but small rises and small falls have little impact on us. Even if the market falls again, there will be an opportunity for A shares to open lower and move higher tomorrow. If it does not fall, it will be easier for A shares to rebound, and we can prepare in advance.
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(The author of this article introduces: chief commentator and senior investor of Sina Finance.)
